【作者】 常静；

【导师】 曹永强； 杨志勇；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁师范大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 在全球气候变化、区域水资源开发利用等共同影响下，我国流域水资源条件发生了明显演变。洞庭湖作为我国第二大淡水湖泊，也是长江中下游防洪体系的重要组成部分，随着社会经济的发展，流域内干旱、洪涝等水资源问题日益突出。分析洞庭湖流域水资源演变规律、评估未来可能变化趋势是合理制定湖区发展战略的基础。本文建立了洞庭湖流域分布式水文模型，并应用模型对流域水资源演变规律进行分析，主要结论如下：（1）应用M-K检验、Morlet小波对湘、资、沅、澧四水历史径流系列演变趋势进行了分析，结果表明：湘、澧流域径流量分别在2002年、1979年发生显著的变化，资、沅及“四水”总入湖流量没有发生明显突变；50年中，“四水”径流量存在30~33年左右不等的变化周期；在2010年后径流量有转向减少的趋势。（2）以SWAT模型为基础，洞庭湖湘、资、沅、澧四水流域为研究对象，建立分布式水文模型，应用历史径流量资料，对模型进行参数的率定和检验，结果表明：率定期湘江、沅水Nash效率系数均高于0.90，澧水达到0.88，资江也超过0.75，验证期模拟表现与率定期基本相当，证明了模型在洞庭湖流域的适应性。（3）根据未来气候变化预估结果，设定24种可能情景，应用模型对气候变化情景下的洞庭湖流域径流量进行模拟，分析了洞庭湖流域径流与气候变化的响应，结果表明：流域月径流量随着降水量的增加而增大，随着气温的升高而减小；流域对降水量变化敏感性要大于气温。（4）三峡水利枢纽兴建前、预蓄水期、正式蓄水运行后三个时段，城陵矶站年平均流量有显著下降，但年平均水位变化趋势不显著；三峡水库正式蓄水运行后江湖水资源交换量为1948亿m3，较之前有所减少；“四水”年入湖量比多年平均减少了10.31%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources conditions have significant evolved in China under the influence ofglobal climate change, development and utilization of regional water resources. With thedevelopment of society and economy, the water resources issues in Dongting Lake of droughtand floods are increasingly prominent in recent years, as it is the second largest freshwaterlake, and an important part of the Yangtze River in China. It is base of formulate thereasonable development strategy that to analyze the evolution, assess of possible futurechange trend of water resources in Dongting Lake. In this paper, a Distributed HydrologicalModeling is built to analyze the evolution of water resources in Dongting Lake. The maincontents and results are as follows：(1) To analyze the evolution trends of series of historical runoff in “Four Rivers” byM-K test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that, it respectively occurs asignificant change in2002and1979in Xiang River and Li River, and it occurs onsignificantly mutation in Zi River, Yuan River and "Four Rivers" total flow. In the50years, itexists30~33years of the primary cycle, and it has a turned downward trend after2010ofrunoff in “Four Rivers”.(2) To establish a Distributed Hydrological Modeling in “Four Rivers” in Dongting Lakebased on SWAT, and calibrate and the test the model applied historical runoff data. It showsthat, in calibration period, Ensare higher than0.90in Xiang River and Yuan River,0.88in LiRiver, and0.75in Zi River. The performances are basically the same in validation period tocalibration period. It proves that the model is adaptable in Dongting Lake.(3)24kinds of scenarios of climate change are set up according to the projections offuture climate change to simulate runoff by SWAT, and to analyze the response of runoff andclimate change in Dongting Lake. The results show that, monthly runoff increases with theincrease of precipitation, and decreases with the increase of temperature; Influence ofprecipitation on the runoff is greater than temperature.(4) In the three periods of time of before the construction of the Three Gorges Project,the pre-impoundment period, and the official water after running, the average annual flowsignificantly reduced, however the average water level has no significant change trend inChenglingji; The official water after running of Three Gorges Reservoir, water resourcesexchange amount of Yangtze and Dongting Lake is194.8307billion m3, and it decreases than previous; The water amount of "Four Rivers" into Dongting Lake is less than the average formany years for10.31%.更多还原