【作者】 李玲；

【导师】 曲赜胜；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 投资经济学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产业经过20多年的高速发展，虽然成熟度还不算高，但是增长速度却不断提高，取得了令人惊讶的迅猛发展，在改善居民的住房条件，减少失业人口，提供就业机会等方面做出了显著效果。目前我国正处于高速经济转型时期，房地产业为加快产业结构调整提供了强大动力，房地产开发投资连年不断提高，在拉动国民经济快速增长方面，起到了举足轻重的作用。房地产业对货币和金融有很强的依赖性，无论是在购买建设用地、筹备开发、动工建设、后续经营流通和销售房产过程中，都需要大量的资金作为后备供给，离不开筹资、融资及其他类型的货币流通和信贷渠道，因此资金的供应量及可获性对房地产的繁荣发展有重要影响。但是近几年来出现房地产投资额高速增加，房地产价格却居高不下的现象，广义货币供应量也不断增加，在GDP中的比重也逐渐提高，年增长率多次超过GDP的年增长率。那么货币供应量对房地产投资有怎样的影响，能否通过合理的货币调控政策调控房地产市场，就成为一个问题。文章从四个部分研究了货币供应量对房地产开发投资的影响：第一部分，主要介绍论文的研究背景及意义，广义货币供应量（M2）每年不断提高，大量货币涌入市场，同时房地产开发市场进入白热化，投资程度不断提高，需要适度降低房地产市场热度，提出该如何操作的问题。第二部分，从理论以及实际波动角度，对市场的实际情况进行定量分析，分为我国广义货币供应量的波动情况分析，房地产投资情况的波动情况分析，最后将二者结合，观察是否有波动特征。第三部分，是对两变量采用计量分析方法进行实证分析，通过构建相关模型和结构性分析方法对两变量的关系和相关特征做出总结。第四部分，根据上面的描述性分析和计量分析结果，提出政策建议，从金融机构和政府角度提出可能建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate industry of our country has been in the fast growing period afterdevelopment of twenty years. Especially, the decision of the central government onstopping material distribution of houses in1998heightened continuously the real estatemarket degree. And the effect of pulling the economy of the real estate industry has beengradually significant. It has become one of the pillar of national economy. The real estateindustry is a capital intensive industry. Consumption of real estate and real estate requirefinance support, and money will affect the real estate market to a certain extent. What isthe facter of the swift growth of Investment in residential real estate in recent years? Asthe primary intermediate target for center banks in implementing monetary policy inmany countries, the supply of money is growing. the supply of money as a proportion ofGDP has been increasing year by year. Will the supply of money affect the the supplyof money?This paper will use the model of VAR to analyse the relationship between the supplyof money and the investment in residential real estate, and give some suggestions.This paper studies the effect of money supply on the investment in real estatedevelopment from four parts:The first part, the research background and significance ofthe thesis mainly.The second part, from theoretical and practical angle of incidence, theactual situation of the market for quantitative analysis.The third part is on the twovariables, using quantitative analysis method for empirical analysis, summarized byconstructing the model and structural analysis on the relationship between the twovariables and relevant features.The fourth part, based on the descriptive analysis andeconometric analysis results above, put forward the policy proposal, put forward possiblesuggestions from the angle of financial institutions and government.更多还原