【作者】 徐亮；

【导师】 李存斌；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以智能电网环境下电网公司与发电公司以及电力消费用户之间基于电力流、信息流和资金流的互动用电模式为研究对象,借助于风险元传递理论,研究互动用电模式为智能电网运营带来的新型风险元以及这些风险元沿着电力流、信息流和资金流的传递路径和传递效应。首先文章在对智能电网信息系统业务流程进行分析的基础上,将业务执行过程中传递的信息视为风险元,将业务执行的流程方向视为风险元传递路径,提出了基于吸收马尔科夫链的智能电网信息安全风险传递评价模型。该模型针对智能电网信息系统不同等级的安全故障状态量化智能电网信息安全风险,为互动用电模式下的智能电网信息安全风险评估提供了更为完善可行的计算方法。该风险评估模型借助于吸收马尔科夫链定量计算智能电网信息系统业务执行过程中各项任务的风险指标以及其在各安全故障状态的概率分布,通过评估可以确定智能电网信息系统业务执行过程中的高风险任务。其次文章分析了智能电网互动用电模式下实行峰谷分时电价时的用户需求反应以及其导致的电网公司售电收入风险元和购电成本风险元,借助于需求价格弹性推导出峰谷分时电价、合同市场购电比例、用户电力需求量、现货市场电价的不确定性通过关系型风险传递路径共同导致了电网公司收益的不确定性,其中峰谷分时电价将通过用户需求价格弹性影响用户电力需求量,进而影响现货市场电价。最后文章从提高智能电网运行安全性、资金安全性和信息安全性的角度出发,为建立高效安全经济的智能电网互动用电运营机制提出若干项建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper considers the interactive electricity using mode based on electricity flow, information flow and capital flow between grid companies and electric power generation companies and electric power user under the environment of smart grid as research subject, and studies the new risk elements for smart grid operation brought by interactive electricity using mode and the transmission path and transmission effects of these risk elements along electricity flow, information flow and capital flow by means of risk elements transmission theory. First, on the basis of the analysis of business process of smart grid information system, the paper considers the information transmitting during the execution of business as a risk element, considers the direction of the business process execution as a risk element transmission path, and proposes smart grid information security risk transmission assessment model based on absorbing markov chain. This model quantifies smart grid information security risk aiming at different levels of safety fault condition of smart grid information system, and provides a more sound and practicable method of calculation for smart grid information security risk assessment under interactive electricity using mode. The risk assessment model quantitatively calculates risk indicators of all tasks and their probability distribution in each state security failure by means of absorbing markov chain, the high-risk tasks of the smart grid information system business execution process can be determined by evaluating. Second, this paper analyzes electricity power users demand response under TOU pricing of smart grid interactive electricity using mode, and the electricity sales revenue risk element and electricity purchase cost risk element of power grid corporation causes by it. And then the conclusion that the uncertinty of TOU pricing, electricity purchasing proportion on contract market, user demand for electricity and the electricity price on the spot market co-led the uncertainty of the power grid company’s earnings through the transmission path of relational risk was deduced by using price elasticity of demand, in which TOU pricing affected user demand for electricity through price elasticity of demand and thereby affected the spot market electricity price. Finally, the paper made a number of recommendations for the establishment of a high-efficiency, secure and economical operating mechanism for smart grid interactive electricity using from the perspective of improving the operating safety, capital security and informtion security of smart grid.更多还原