【作者】 张蕾；

【导师】 周勇；

【作者基本信息】 济南大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 党的“十八大”提出深化经济与生态领域改革，两手都要硬，推进经济建设与生态文明建设相融合，建立长效机制实现可持续发展目标。本文紧跟低碳经济发展潮流，抓住低碳产业革命机遇，针对国内产业结构不均衡、经济发展方式不环保的现状，旨在探究主导产业这一经济贡献大户的发展思路，优先解决经济发展与生态改革的主要矛盾。整合国内外研究动态，主导产业领域偏重于研究主导产业选择及其基准，低碳领域侧重点在于产业低碳的新研究。将二者相结合的研究目前并不多见，大多缺少实证研究。本文在此基础上梳理主导产业低碳化发展相关研究，作出综合论述。首先，阐述主导产业理论构成，确定比较优势、生产率上升率、要素禀赋三大选择基准，通过14个指标构成主导产业选择指标体系，运用多元统计学的主成分分析方法构建主导产业选择的系统评价模型。其次，根据2008-2012年济南市统计年鉴相关数据，主成分定量实证，辅之以佐证定性判别，选取装备制造业、金融业与电子信息业为济南市主导产业。再次，深入分析主导产业及关联产业的发展结构，及可低碳化发展阶段或过程，结合济南市主导产业现有发展状况，《国家重点节能技术推广目录》和《工业领域节能减排电子信息应用技术导向目录（第二批）》等出台文件，选取低碳技术加以研究探讨，并勾画济南市主导产业链低碳技术应用关联。最后，基于低碳技术的应用关联，构建济南市内外部低碳主导产业链，进一步通过运用技术经济学的经济性评价方法，归类筛选低碳技术，对比甄别出可行性的低碳技术方案，优化已有的低碳主导产业链，形成济南市主导产业低碳技术实施时间进程表，向主导产业提供实施低碳化发展的参照依据；同时，由于技术应用周期较长、生产企业考虑运营风险等实际问题，从政府宏观支持、主导产业发力、社会公众参与三大措施层面，系统性整合社会各个方面的资源推动低碳化进程，给予政府及相关部门政策建议及参考性措施，为济南市低碳生态发展提供重要的决策支持，巩固济南区域中心城市地位，建设“实力济南、美丽泉城”。更多还原

【Abstract】 The18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to deepen thereform of economic and ecological areas, with both hands, and promote the integration ofeconomic and ecological civilization development, to establish long-term mechanism toachieve sustainable development goals. This paper keeps up the trend of low-carbon economy,seizes the opportunity of the low-carbon industrial revolution, for the situations are about thatthe domestic industrial structure is not balanced, economic development is not environmentallyfriendly, this paper aims to explore the development ideas of the leading industries which arethe large economic contribution in the whole area, give priority to solving the majorcontradictions between economic and ecological reforms.Integration the dynamic research at home and abroad, the field of leading industriesemphasises on the selection and benchmark, the field of low-carbon focuses on new researchabout low-carbon industries. Research about the combination of both is currently rare, mostlylack of empirical research. In this paper, based on this situation, do sort of low-carbondevelopment of leading industries research, to make a comprehensive discussionFirstly, elaborated the theorical structure of leading industries, determine comparativeadvantage, the rate of increase in productivity, the endowment of the three selection criteria,leading industries selection index system is formed by14indicators, using empirical principalcomponent analysis methods from multivariate statistical theory to build leading industriesselection system evaluation model. Secondly, based on2008-2012data about Jinan StatisticalYearbook, mainly quantitative evidence of principal component, complemented by qualitativeevidence of discrimination, select equipment manufacturing industry, financial industry andelectronic information industry as the leading industry in Jinan City. Moreover, further in-depthanalysis of the leading industries and related industries cluster development structure, and tolow-carbon development stages or processes, combined with the current development status ofJinan leading industries,"National Energy Technology Extension Catalogs" and "EnergySaving Industrial Applications of Electronic Information Technology Oriented Directory(Second Batch)" such issued documents, select low-carbon technologies to be exploredresearch, and outline associated applications about the low-carbon technologies of the chain of the leading industries in Jinan City.Finally, based on the associated applications about the low-carbon technologies, to bulidthe internal and external low-carbon chains of the leading industries in Jinan City, furtherlythrough using economic evaluation method from technology economics theory, classified andscreening low-carbon technologies, compared the feasibility of low-carbon technologiesprograms to optimize the existing low-carbon leading industries chains, to form low-carbontechnologies implementation time schedule of leading industries in Jinan, which for the leadingindustries to reference and implement the low-carbon development. Meanwhile, considered theactual issues of longer application cycle of technologies and operational risk that productioncompanies consider, multi-angle discussing measures from the government’s macro support,leading industries’ effort, public participation three aspects, systematic integration of allaspects of social resources to promote low-carbon process, giving the government and relevantdepartments policy proposals and reference measures, providing important decision support forthe development of low-carbon eco-city of Jinan, to consolidate regional center position,construct "Strength of Jinan, Beautiful Spring City".更多还原