【作者】 王晨；

【导师】 李翠霞；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,奶类总量和乳制品产量持续增长,乳业在促进我国农业现代化实现、提高农民收入、拉动消费和提高国民身体素质方面的作用越来越明显。随着我国乳业的高速发展,奶牛养殖的组织形式不断升级,奶农由原有的散户经营逐渐向奶牛专业合作社等合作经济组织发展。奶牛合作社对于乳品产业链来说不但与原料乳生产有密切关系,与乳业的加工、销售也存在着密切的关系,其位置的重要性不言而喻。面对复杂多变的经济形式,奶牛专业合作社的形成对共同抵抗各类风险,降低经营成本,提高奶农收益都具有重要意义。本文以合作经济理论、风险管理理论为基本理论依据,采用实地调研法、层次分析法、专家打分法等多种研究方法,以黑龙江省奶牛专业合作社运营中存在的风险出发,系统梳理其风险的类型、成因及特点,并建立黑龙江省奶牛专业合作社风险评价指标体系,将合作社风险分为决策风险、制度风险、信用风险、养殖风险、市场风险和政策风险六类,选取一家奶牛专业合作社为样本分别对六类风险进行打分,评价出六类风险的主要影响因素,再建立综合评价指标体系,对影响奶牛专业合作社的风险进行判定。研究结果表明,目前黑龙江省奶牛专业合作社存在许多影响奶牛专业合作社经营的风险,其中决策者能力、监管制度、决策机制是影响奶牛专业合作社决策风险最关键因素；运行规范程度、职责清晰程度和制度完善程度是影响奶牛专业合作社制度风险的最重要因素；而在信用风险评价中,合同条款、利益联结机制、风险分担机制是最重要因素；对于养殖风险来说,自然环境、疫病防控和原料乳质量安全是衡量其风险的重要因素；市场风险则可以用饲养价格和原料乳价格进行衡量；政策风险可以用政策制订、政策内容及政策执行三个因素来反映。在评价奶牛专业合作社风险的总体指标体系中,决策风险、市场风险和信用风险是影响奶牛专业合作社最重要的风险。根据评价指标体系中所确定的主要风险,可以通过完善决策机制、健全制度机制、强化利益联结机制、优化养殖管理水平、规范市场管理、完善政策扶持、建立风险预警机制的对策降低黑龙江省奶牛专业合作社风险,促进合作社健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China’s reform and opening up and the amount of milk and dairy products production sustained growth, dairy industry has more and more obvious effect to realize China’s agricultural modernization, increase farmers’ income, increase consumption, and improve the national physical quality. As the rapidly developement of dairy industry, dairy farming organizations constantly upgrade in our country. The management of dairy producting changed from original dairy farmers gradually to the organization for economic cooperation, such as dairy professional cooperatives. In the dairy industry chain, dairy professional cooperatives not only has close relationship with raw milk production, but also has close relations with the dairy processing and marketing,so the importance of its location is self-evident. Facing the complex economic form, the formation of dairy professional cooperatives has important significance to jointly resist all kinds of risks, reducing operating costs and improving dairy farmers’income.Based on the cooperative economy theory and risk management theory, using the field research method, analytic hierarchy process (ahp), expert scoring method and other research methods, this paper operates from the risks of Heilongjiang dairy professional cooperatives,analyzes types, origin and characteristics of the risks, and establishes Heilongjiang dairy professional cooperatives risk evaluation index system. Cooperative risks can be divided into six categories as decision-making risk, system risk, credit risk, breeding risk, market risk and policy risk. This paper selects a dairy professional cooperative as samples to give scores on six kinds of risks respectively, evaluates the main factors what influence the six kinds of risks, establishes comprehensive evaluation index system to determine affect the risk of professional cooperatives.The results indicate there are many risks affecting the professional cooperatives operating. Policymakers capacity, regulatory system and decision-making mechanism are the most key factors what affect the professional cooperatives decision-making risk;Operation specification levels, clear responsibilities and system consummation degree are the most important factors affecting dairy professional cooperatives system risk; In the evaluation of credit risk, the terms of the contract, benefit coupling mechanism and risk sharing mechanism are the most important factors; For breeding risk, natural environment, disease prevention and control and the quality and safety of raw milk are the important factors to measure the breeding risk; Market risk can be measured by raising price and raw material milk price; Policy risk can use policy making, policy content and policy implementation these three factors to reflect. In evaluating the overall index system of the dairy professional cooperatives risk, decision-making risk, market risk and credit risk are the most important risks what affect the professional cooperatives. According to the assessment index system of the main risks, improve the decision-making mechanism, improving the institutional mechanisms, strengthening the benefit coupling mechanism, optimization of breeding management level, standardizing the market management, improving the policy support, establishing the risk early warning mechanism are the countermeasures to reduce the risks of Heilongjiang dairy professional cooperatives and to promote the healthy development of cooperatives.更多还原