【作者】 刘娜；

【导师】 董德坤；

【作者基本信息】 青岛理工大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 本文研究了山东省城镇居民对新建商品住房的支付能力。首先通过文献综述了解国内外住房支付能力研究现状，分析衡量住房支付能力常用指标及适用范围。然后从供需状况上对山东省住宅市场发展现状与存在的问题进行探讨。最后采用定性与定量相结合的方法对山东省城镇居民住房支付能力进行实证分析。采用合适的衡量指标从历史变动、社会差距、区域差异三个角度对山东省城镇居民的住房支付能力进行系统分析，并通过PIR计量模型简单预测未来5年内城镇居民住房支付能力的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）根据PIR和HAI指标的测算，从整体上来看，山东省城镇居民住房支付能力高于全国平均水平，具备一定的购房能力；（2）采用静态PIR、动态PIR和剩余收入法全面分析住房支付能力存在的社会差距，综合结果得出不同收入户间住房支付能力差距悬殊：高收入户及最高收入户支付能力很强，可以购买市场上提供的任何新建类型住宅；较高收入户对70m2、90m2的套房面积有支付能力；中间及较低收入户可以借助金融工具购买70m2的新建商品住宅；最低及低收入户基本上不具备购买市场上新建商品住宅的能力。（3）通过计算PIR，各城市居民住房支付能力存在较大差异，大体上呈现中西部地区住房支付能力最好，其次是沿海城市，再次是济南、青岛。（4）未来5年内房价涨幅若控制在居民收入增长速度之内，居民将具备较好的住房支付能力。考虑到住房支付能力影响因素的复杂性，运用因子分析法建立在综合影响因素下山东省城镇居民住房支付能力区域差异的计量评价模型。结果表明，各地区住房支付能力综合排名与衡量指标测算的结果大体相一致，因子得分排名则反映了不同地区受各因子影响程度不同，要根据具体情况进一步落实区域差异化的房地产调控。最后，文章结合影响山东省城镇居民住房支付能力的因素提出了增加住房供给；完善住房供应体系；稳定住房价格，增加城镇居民收入；规范使用金融工具等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation studies the ability of urban residents to pay for new housing inShandong Province. The paper firstly understands the current research capacity to payhousing through literature summary, analyses commonly used indicator to measurethe ability to pay housing and the scope of application. Then the dissertation discussesthe current situation of the housing market in Shandong Province and problems fromthe supply and demand situation, and finally analyses housing affordability for urbanresidents in Shandong province from qualitative and quantitative views.The dissertation chooses the appropriate measure of changes from the historical,social disparities, regional differences to study urban residents housing affordability inShandong Province Systematically. PIR is measured by a simple model to predict thetrend of urban housing capacity over the next five years. The results showed that:(1)According to estimating PIR and HAI indicators, urban residents in ShandongProvince housing affordability is better than the national average, which have acertain affordability as a whole.(2) Using housing price-income ratio, dynamichousing price-income ratio and the remaining income ratio to analyse of socialhousing affordability gap wholely. The consolidated results reflect large gap onhousing affordability between different household income: High-income householdsand the highest-income households affordability are strong, who can buy any type ofnew houses available on the market; Higher income households has the ability to payto70m2,90m2suite area; Middle and lower income households can make use offinancial instruments to purchase70m2of new commodity housing; Minimum andlow-income households do not have the ability to purchase essentially newcommodity housing market.(3) According to the calculation of PIR, each urbanhousing affordability exist large regional differences, appeared the best housingaffordability is Midwest, followed by the coastal cities, and finally Jinan, Qingdao.(4)If the rise in the price is controlled lower than available income growth rate the nextfive years, the residents will have better housing affordability.Considering the complex of Affecting Housing Affordability Factors, the dissertation uses factor analysis to establish housing affordability measurementevaluation model based on regional differences with the combined influence of factorsin Shandong Province. It shows that integrated housing affordability conditions areroughly the same with Index calculations before. The degree from the factor scoresshows that all regions affected by various factors are not the same, which needs tounderstand the specific circumstances in order to further carry out the regionaldifferences in the regulation of the real estate.Finally, the article combines with factors affecting urban housing affordability inShandong Province to propose appropriate suggestions, such as to increase housingsupply; improve housing supply system; stabilize housing prices, increase income ofurban residents; regulate the use of financial instruments and so on.更多还原