信贷渠道对我国企业出口贸易的影响

【作者】 陈颖；

【导师】 刘阳；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 国家宏观调控中,货币政策是重要手段,是货币政策当局通过运用货币政策工具来达到既定的货币政策目标。在运用货币政策来影响经济的过程中,货币政策传导渠道的选择变得十分重要。因为货币政策传导渠道是政策工具联结中介指标实现货币政策目标的路线,所以货币政策传导渠道的有效性意味着货币政策的有效性。我国经济迅猛发展,在加入世界贸易组织以后,发展势头更为强劲,一跃成为世界第二大贸易国和第一大出口国。在我国,货币政策的实施不仅影响经济增长、实际支出等国内实体经济,还通过汇率渠道、国际收支、资本流动等渠道来影响中国的进出口贸易。中国货币政策传导方式有一定的独特性,利率对中国的调控作用并不是十分明显,往往带有一定的滞后性,而且利率的变动需要一段时间后才会反映到进出口贸易上。而且,中国曾经持续一段时间地提高汇率,然而,通过提高汇率这个措施对进出口贸易所造成的影响也有一定的滞后性。货币政策可以通过信贷渠道来影响实体经济,影响我国企业出口贸易。近年来,我国金融体制市场化进程稳步推进,基于多种货币政策工具的使用并通过货币政策传导渠道来达到货币政策的最终目标,已逐步成为我国货币政策实施的常态。一般认为货币政策主要通过利率渠道来影响企业出口贸易,但货币政策是否能通过信贷渠道来影响我国企业出口贸易?本文将带着这样的疑问,以理论分析为基础,结合我国目前货币政策信贷渠道存在性分析和我国当前金融运行环境,利用定性分析和实证检验的方法,研究我国货币政策传导的信贷渠道,从理论和实证的角度来证明,货币政策可以通过信贷渠道来影响我国企业出口贸易,为我国经济发展提出政策性建议。本文的主要内容可以概括为以下几个方面：首先介绍信贷渠道对我国企业出口贸易的影响的选题背景和选题意义,研读国内外学者对信贷约束对出口贸易影响的相关研究成果,并进行了梳理和评述。然后就关于货币政策、信贷渠道、出口贸易、约束因素等相关研究进行整理,再者论文本文的研究框架、研究方法以及相关说明。其次是信贷渠道对我国企业出口贸易的影响的理论分析。先对相关理论进行梳理,阐述信贷渠道理论,介绍了早期信贷观点、均衡信贷配给理论和新凯恩斯主义时期的货币政策信贷传导机制,并建立信贷渠道影响机制的理论模型,即信贷约束模型。接着分析货币政策信贷渠道在我国的存在性和我国信贷渠道作用于实体经济的金融环境。从影响机制和约束机制两个方面进行研究,以此来证明货币政策可以通过信贷渠道对出口贸易产生影响,并为后面的实证检验奠定了理论基础。接下来,在理论分析的基础上进行信贷渠道对我国企业出口贸易的影响的实证分析。该部分选取货币供应量、贸易公司出口收入、公司规模与公司所有权性质(引入虚拟变量)等变量进行建模,利用多元回归模型等方法加以实证分析,为前面的理论分析提供实证证明。最后紧扣理论和实证分析的结果,提出政策性建议。我国货币政策可以通过信贷渠道对出口贸易产生影响,为了促进出口贸易的发展,实现经济的可持续发展,我国需要深化国有大型商业银行的改革并大力发展中小金融机构,还要继续深化利率市场化进程,大力发展证券市场。更多还原

【Abstract】 National macroeconomic regulation and control, the monetary policy is an important means, is the monetary authorities through the use of monetary policy of monetary policy tools to achieve the established objectives. In the process of using monetary policy to affect the economy, the choice of monetary policy transmission channels become very important. Because of the monetary policy transmission channels is a policy tool coupling intermediate targets of monetary policy goals of the course, so the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission channels means the effectiveness of monetary policy.The rapid development of economic in our country, after joining the world trade organization, more strong momentum of development, become the second largest trading nation in the world and the largest exporter. In our country, the implementation of monetary policy not only affects the economic growth, real spending substantial internal departments, but also through exchange rate, balance of payments, capital flows and other channels to influence China’s import and export trade. China’s monetary policy transmission way has certain uniqueness, interest rate control in China is not very obvious, often with a certain lag, and the change of interest rate need after a period of time will be reflected in the import and export trade. And, at the beginning of Chinahas been a period of time to improve the exchange rate, but after half a year to reflect on the import and export trade. Monetary policy can affect the real economy, through access to credit influence enterprises export trade in our country.In recent years, the financial system steady development of our country, the securities market is established, the process of marketization of interest rate, etc., and make use of various monetary policy tools as well as the monetary policy transmission channels to achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy. Monetary policy can affect our country enterprise export trade through access to credit? In this article, we will take this question, on the basis of theoretical analysis, combined with China’s current monetary policy credit channel existence are analyzed and the current financial operation environment in our country, by using the method of qualitative analysis and empirical test, study the credit channel of monetary policy transmission in our country, from the perspective of theoretical and empirical proof, monetary policy can affect our country enterprise export trade through access to credit, and put forward policy Suggestions for China’s economic development.The main content of this paper can be summarized as the following respects:First introduced to our country enterprise export trade credit channel of the selected topic background and significance of topics, the influence of the study on the impact of domestic and foreign scholars on credit channel on export trade related research achievements, and has carried on the comb and reviewed in this paper. Then on monetary policy, credit channels, export trade and constraint factors related research to sort, moreover thesis research framework of this article, research methods and related instructions. The second is credit channel theoretical analysis of the influence of the export trade of China’s enterprises. After reviewing the related theories, first elaborated the credit channel theory, this paper introduces the early credit views, the balanced credit rationing theory and new Keynesian monetary policy credit transmission mechanism, the theoretical model of impact mechanism, and establish the credit channel is the credit constraint model. Then analysis the existence of the monetary policy credit channels in our country and our country credit channels on the real economy of the financial environment. From two aspects of influence mechanism and constraint mechanism, to prove that monetary policy can affect export trade through credit channels, and laid a theoretical foundation for the back of the empirical test. The following credit channel on the empirical analysis of our country’s enterprises to export trade influence. This part of the money supply, export trade company income, company size and ownership of property (such as introducing virtual variable) variable model, using the methods of multiple regression model to empirical analysis, the empirical proof for the previous theoretical analysis. Closely related to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, finally put forward policy Suggestions. China’s monetary policy can affect export trade through credit channels, in order to promote the development of export trade, and realize the sustainable development of economy, the need to deepen the reform of the state-owned commercial Banks in China and vigorously develop small and medium-sized financial institutions, continue to deepen the process of marketization of interest rate, to develop the securities market.更多还原