【作者】 张亮；

【导师】 陈权宝；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 金融工程与风险管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年中国房价只涨不跌与数次中央调控的收效甚微似乎已经不能仅仅用传统的经济学理论来解释中国房地产市场的畸形发展。种种经验表明在中国改革开放进程中，一些财政政策、货币政策的出台对中国的房地产市场过热发展起到直接或者间接的促进作用，特别是1994年财政税制改革与2005年的人民币汇率改革，也许这并不是最初政策制定者所愿意看到的情况。本篇论文利用面板数据模型对我国从1999年至2012年的31个省份的数据进行实证分析，来研究分税制改革后地方政府的财政行为和汇率改革后人民币汇率波动对于中国住房价格居高不下的作用。本文的实证结果表明，在控制社会和经济因素的不变的情况下，税制改革后地方政府的财政自主权和汇率改革后人民币汇率波动对于区域房地产价格影响显著，并且进一步研究结果表明地方政府财政自主权水平与地理距离因素共同作用对住房价格产生正向影响，人民币汇率对区域住房价格的影响随着各地方政府第三产业占比的变化而变化。本篇论文的研究有助于丰富区域住房价格影响因素的研究体系。本文并不像传统的研究那样，仅仅只是关注经济，社会等因素对住房价格的影响。本篇论文还旨在研究中国分税制改革和人民币汇率改革对区域住房价格的作用，研究结果具有重要的政策意义和实际意义。首先，地方政府盲目的通过刺激政策大力推进房地产业提振经济增加税收收入的同时极有可能导致与中央政府宏观调控目标相互冲突的恶果。此外，这样的财政刺激政策与地方债务很大程度上会导致住房价格泡沫，无论在经济层面上还是在社会层面上都是我们所不愿看到的。其次，2005年人民币汇率改革后人民币汇率波动对住房价格有积极的影响，而且这种影响效果随着区域的不同是不一致的，第三产业较为发达的省份住房价格受的影响会更为显著。第三产业较为发达的省份住房价格的快速增长可能会导致更快的区域经济增长，这极有可能会导致贫富分化的加剧，这也与中央政府减少收入两极分化的目标是相抵触的。最后，正是由于地方政府财政自主权的不同，受汇率波动影响程度的不同，中央政府在出台房地产调控政策的时候要因地制宜，考虑到地方政府的具体差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate prices have soared and aren’t likely to get cheaper anytime soon withseveral years of real estate regulation. Traditional supply and demand theory seem notto explain the abnormal development of the Chinese real estate market. Experiencehas shown that some of the fiscal and monetary policies promote the development ofReal estate unintentionally.This study use panel data from31provinces over the period1999to2012toanalyses empirically the role of provincial governments’ behavior and exchangefluctuation in determining housing price levels in China. Our empirical results suggestthat the level of fiscal autonomy and exchange rate has contributed significantly toregional housing price after controlling for social and economic factors. In particular,we found that the longer the distance between Beijing and a local government, thestronger the impact of the local governments’ level of fiscal autonomy on the averagehousing price in its jurisdiction, and the impact of RMB exchange rate after2005onreal housing price is stronger for provinces with more developed services sector.This study contributes to the body of knowledge on regional housing price.Unlike previous studies that only focused mainly on the impact of economic andsocial Factor. This study also aimed at studying the role of tax system and exchangerate reform in China. The results have important policy and practical implications.First of all, provincial governments blindly and vigorously promote the real estateindustry through Fiscal stimulus to improve the economy and fiscal revenue, theymay also lead to conflicting goals between central governments’ macro-control policy.In addition such fiscal stimulus and local debt may unexpectedly lead to housing pricebubbles that are economically and socially undesirable. The next one, the centralgovernments’policy to reform the exchange rate formation mechanism of the RMB in2005has also contributed to housing price escalation, and the impact was not uniformbut stronger in provinces with a more developed tertiary sector, which are usuallywealthier provinces. Increase in housing prices in these provinces may lead to fasterregional economic growth and thus contributing to even more sever regional incomedisparity, which contradicts the central governments’ goal of reducing incomepolarization. Finally because of the different levels of financial autonomy, differentimpacts of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the central government should take intoaccount the specific conditions of local government while forming the real estate macro-control policy.更多还原