【作者】 刘欢；

【导师】 任宏；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 房价变化给居民消费行为和社会福利带来的影响是值得重视的。房价上涨，一方面带动房产拥有者的家庭财富和福利同时增加，促进其消费；另一方面给没有房产的居民产生预算约束效应，带来负的财富效应，并造成福利损失。论文研究主要集中在重庆市住宅市场财富效应和福利效应的实证分析上。在此之前，对国内外研究文献进行梳理，发现不同的学者使用不同的方法对不同的研究对象进行分析，得出的结论也不一致。关于住宅市场财富效应，部分学者认为住宅市场具有正的财富效应，另一部分学者却持有相反观点，认为住宅市场财富效应为负，还有一部分学者得出住宅市场财富效应不显著的结论；关于福利效应，大多数学者侧重于研究福利测算的方法，主要有阿玛蒂亚·森的能力方法论、古典福利分析方法，如等价性变化、补偿性变化和消费者剩余等方法以及Bajari，Benkard和Krainer提出的社会福利净损失核算模型等。随后介绍了相关理论和作用机理，理论方面，主要是消费函数理论，并重点分析了家庭财富水平、结构及分配情况对消费的影响；作用机理方面，主要探讨房价上涨对现期和预期住宅财富带来的流动性约束效应、预算约束效应、已实现的财富效应、未实现的财富效应、替代效应以及信心效应。实证分析部分，以持久收入-生命周期理论为基础，利用重庆市住宅市场2001年第1季到2013年第4季的季度数据，对重庆住宅市场的财富值指标进行处理，展开财富效应实证分析。结果发现，重庆市住宅市场的财富效应为负；此外，利用Bajari，Benkard和Krainer提出的社会福利净损失核算模型，对重庆市2001-2013年由房价上涨带来的福利损失进行测算发现，2001-2013年重庆房价上涨带来的户均福利损失为281.9元/年。接着，根据实证分析结果，初步探讨了制约重庆市住宅市场财富效应和福利效应的因素。最后根据制约因素提出相应的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Impact of housing price changes to consumer behavior and social welfare isworthy of attention. Housing prices rose, on the one hand, will drive property owners’household wealth and welfare while increasing and promoting their consumption; on theother hand, will produce Budget constraint effect to the residents who has no house.bring the negative wealth effect and cause welfare losses.The empirical analysis focuses on the wealth effect and welfare effects of housingmarket. Prior to this, analyze the domestic and foreign research literature, found that thedifferent researchers use different methods on different subjects, the conclusions are notconsistent. On the wealth effect of housing market, some scholars believe that theresidential market has a positive wealth effect, another part of scholars hold the oppositeview, they think that the wealth effect of housing market is negative, there is anotherpart of scholars think that the wealth effect of housing market is not significant; on thewelfare effect, most scholars focus on the study of welfare measure, mainly AmartyaSen’s capability approach theory, classical welfare analysis methods, such asequivalence, compensatory changes and changes in consumer surplus and othermethods as well as Bajari, Benkard and Krainer proposed net loss of social welfareaccounting model. Then it introduces the related theory and the mechanism of action, intheory, mainly analyzed the theory of the consumption function, the effect of householdwealth level, structure and distribution of consumption; in the conduction mechanism,mainly discusses the prices rise to the current and expected housing wealth effect,include the liquidity constraint budget constraint effect, realized wealth effect,unrealized wealth effect, substitution effect and confidence effects. In the part ofempirical analysis, using quarterly data of Chongqing housing market in2001firstquarter to the fourth quarter of2013to analyze the wealth effect of Chongqing housingmarket based on the life cycle theory-permanent income–based theory. The resultsfound that the wealth effect of Chongqing housing market is negative. In addition, usingthe model of net loss of social welfare accounting proposed by Bajari, Krainer andBenkard find that house prices rising caused by the average welfare loss is281.9yuanper year of Chongqing from2001to2013.Finally,according to the results of theempirical analysis of the wealth effect and welfare effects, and the real situation of the real estate market in Chongqing, analyzes the reasons of the the research results andgive some suggestions.更多还原