【作者】 刘昕；

【导师】 郑文瑞；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 保险， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 纵观中国历史的发展，不难发现“养老”一直是一个非常重要的话题，现阶段我国实行的养老保险制度是社会统筹与个人账户相结合。我们的研究则以养老保险基金为研究对象，对其收支的平衡情况进行分析。我们在分析我国基本养老保险制度改革的短期和长期问题的时候,把定性与定量的方法进行了有效地结合,同时在数据分析和预测的时候应用了数学模型，使得研究过程更加谨慎，研究结果更加客观。我们通过建立社会养老保险基金平衡精算模型，结合搜集到的吉林省的实际数据，对本省的养老保险基金收支的平衡问题进行了深入地探究，并在文章最后给出了建议并做出了展望。我们在第一章中，论述了选题的背景、界定了本文关注的研究问题同时给出了明确的研究思路及研究方法,并构建了文章的基本框架。本文的第二章，集中论述了养老保险、精算学的相关基本概念，为下文针对模型和相关数据展开的研究提供了丰富的理论支撑。在第三章中，选择特定的养老保险精算模型,然后就其中的参数进行分析假设，最后代入数据，计算并预测未来吉林省养老保险收入和支出的数据以及结余，同时提出为以后模型的完善及更待深入研究问题的建议。在第四章中，给出结论并提出对未来的展望与设想。更多还原

【Abstract】 Throughout the development of Chinese history, it’s not difficult to find that "oldage " has always been a very important topic. At present, the combination of wholeand individual account model of the social endowment insurance is carrying out inChina. Based on the basic social endowment insurance for research object, and then,analyzed the revenue and expenditure on the social endowment insurance. When weanalyze short-and long-term problems of the basic old-age insurance system reform,the qualitative and quantitative methods are combined effectively, while using appliedmathematical model when making data analysis and forecasting, making the processmore careful study and the findings more objective. We build actuarial models ofsocial endowment insurance fund balance, with examples of data collected in JilinProvince. To balance the province’s pension fund revenues and expenditures arein-depth inquiry, and the text in the final chapter gives recommendations and make aprospect.In first chapter we discuss the background, define the research question of thisarticle and give a clear focus of research ideas and research methods, while buildingthe basic framework of the article. Chapter II of this article focuses on the pensioninsurance and basic concepts related to actuarial science, to provide a wealth oftheoretical support for the research of related data and the model later expanded. Inthe third chapter, we select a specific pension actuarial model, and then analyze oneof the parameters assuming finally into the data, calculate and predict the income andexpenditure data of Jilin pension in the future, and propose the recommendations ofthe problems to be more in-depth study for perfect model in the future. In the fourthchapter, we give the conclusions and future outlook and vision.更多还原