中国FDI时空演变特征及其影响机制研究

【作者】 李欣；

【导师】 何艳芬；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 区域经济学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 外商直接投资(FDI)是跨国公司的投资需求与东道国社会经济及政策制度等环境相互契合的结果,是推动区域经济增长的重要动力。我国利用外资规模不断扩大,但空间分布不均衡,加剧了经济社会发展的区域差距。合理利用外资,优化外资利用空间格局对促进、协调区域经济发展具有重要意义。本文利用长时间序列的省域经济单元数据,从多个角度分析FDI的时空演变特征,引入合同签订FDI,构建指标模型分析中国协议外资实现能力的时空变化,并结合空间自相关分析、地理集中指数分析等空间分析方法对中国FDI空间自相关性和集中程度进行定量化表征,进而分析其影响机制,在此基础上构建空间分析模型,通过OLS模型和地理加权回归模型对1985～2011年中国FDI时空演变的影响因素进行实证检验,对比分析1998年和2011年各变量影响作用的变化,并得到提高外资利用水平、优化FDI空间格局和促进区域经济增长的启示。主要结论有：(1)中国利用外资历程呈现明显的阶段性和差异性,可以分为起步与探索阶段(1979～1991)、快速成长阶段(1992～1999)、稳定增长阶段(2000至今)三个阶段：FDI经历了由低水平徘徊、快速增长到稳定增长的过程；项目数量起伏较大,项目平均金额由低到高阶段性增长；行业分布由一般加工行业,转向以第二产业为主,再到第三产业快速增长并赶超第二产业；来源地从以港澳台为主,转向以亚洲为主,辐射欧美等大洲的态势,香港是我国最重要的FDI来源地。差异性：合同签订FDI波动明显,实际利用FDI呈阶梯增长；实际利用FDI与合同签订FDI的差距甚大且不断扩大；合同签订FDI的增长速度远超实际利用FDI。(2)时序特征：中国各省FDI持续增长,FDI省域分布的均衡性提高；三大区域中,东部FDI比重逐渐降低,中西部FDI的份额不断增长,但其绝对值与东部差距很大,且渐趋扩大。空间演变特征：中国FDI空间均衡程度提高,多中心化趋势明显；中国合同FDI实现率的空间差异较大,总体实现能力较低；中国FDI的地理集中指数不断下降,地域集中性在逐渐减弱；中国FDI的空间演变过程存在较强的空间自相关性和异质性,更多的省份成为FDI热点区域。(3)中国FDI的时空演变主要受政策、市场、成本、社会环境、集聚等方面因素的影响。通过OLS和GWR分析,发现累积效应、经济基础、基础设施水平、人力成本、政策环境、商业环境对FDI时空演变的影响显著。各变量的影响具有显著的空间异质性且随时间变化,主要表现在：一是变量作用程度的变化,GDP、交通线路密度、平均工资、第三产业比重、国家级经开区和经济特区数量对FDI变化的影响变大,技术交易、累计FDI的影响力有所下降,交通线路密度对FDI的影响作用最显著；‘二是变量作用在空间上的差异与变化,同一变量的影响在空间上差异明显,随观察年份的变化而变化,且有扩大的趋势。(4)优化中国FDI空间格局以及促进区域经济发展的启示：一是提高合同FDI实现率；二是改善区域投资环境；三是统筹区域发展；四是理性引资。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a result between multinational company investment demand and the environment of the host country’s economic as well as its policy,and it is an important power to promote regional economic growth.The scale of FDI expands unceasingly in china,but the unbalance spatial distribution intensify the regional disparity of the economic and social development.Using FDI reasonable and make the special-temporal of FDI Optimization have great significance to promote regional economic development.This paper use long time series date of provincial to analysis the Spatial-temporal Evolution features of china FDI,import Contracted FDI and build model to analysis Contracted FDI implementation rate in China,and combine Spatial autocorrelation method with geographic concentration index method to quantitative the autocorrelation and concentration of china FDI,Then analysis its Effect Mechanism.On the basis, builded spatial analysis model,empirical research on the Spatial-temporal Evolution factors of FDI in China from1985to2011with the OLS and the Geographically weighted regression model, Contractive analysis the change of each variable impact between1998and2011,then get the enlightenment to improve The level of FDI,optimize the spatial pattern of FDI and promote the regional economic growth.The main conclusions show as follows:(1) The utilization of FDI process in china presents obvious periodic and differences. Can be divided into three stage:Beginning and exploring stage(1979-1991),Rapid growth stage (1992-1999),Stable growth phase (2000-),FDI has experienced the process from low levels, rapid growth to stable growth;the number of Projects has changed greatly,but The mean amount of FDI Projects growth periodic;FDI distribution from the labor-intensive Industry Turns to The second industry,and then the third industry catch up with the second industry and share more;Initially,FDI mainly derived from Hong Kong,macau and Taiwan,then mainly derived from Asian,few derived from Other continents,Hong Kong is The most important source region. Differences:Contracted FDI fluctuate Obviously,the used FDI growth Smoothly.there are large gap between used FDI and Contracted FDI,the growth rate of Contracted FDI more Faster than the used FDI(2)The temporal variation show that:The scale of Provincial FDI expands unceasingly,The equilibrium of Provincial FDI are improveing;In The three regional,the proportion of FDI gradually reduces in The eastern,Contrary in the Central and West,but there are great gap between the three regions.The spatial evolution show that:The spatial equilibrium degree of FDI in China is increasing,and the centralized tendency is more obvious.the implementation rate of provincial contract FDI are difference in spatial,and the implementation capability is low.The geographic concentration index of FDI in China is falling constantly, and the spatial concentration Reduce gradually.There are strong spatialautocorrelation and Heterogeneity in the spatial evolution of provincial FDI in china,and more provinces become the hotspot for FDI.(3)The policy,market,cost,social environmental and concentration are mainly factors affect the Spatial-temporal evolution of FDI in china.The analysis result of OLS and Geographically Weighted Regression show that the cumulative effects, economic conditions, infrastructure level,labor costs,policy environment and business environment are mainly influencingfactors.The effects of the influencefactor shave a significant spatial heterogeneity and change over time,which Performance in two respects:First is the variable degree of change,among which the impacts of the GDP,density of traffic line,average salary,the proportion of the tertiary industry,number of state-level economic and technological development zone to the change of FDI are bigger,and the technical support and the influence of the cumulative effect are decline, meanwhile the improvementof infrastructure level is the most significant effect to promote the growth of FDI.Second,the variables effect difference in space and change constantly,and the effect of the same variable in space have obvious difference,which change along with the vary of observation date and has a tendency to expand.(4)The enlightenment to improve the level of FDI,optimize the spatial pattern of FDI and promote the regional economic growth include as follows:Firstly,raise the realization rate of contractFDI;Secondly,improve regional investment environment;Thirdly,coordinate the regional development;Finaly, attract FDI rationally.更多还原