【作者】 刘勇；

【导师】 吴成颂；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 传统经济学理论是以“理性人”假设为前提,认为人是完全理性完全追求个人利益最大化的个体。然而在实际生活中,大量“扭曲的事实”验证了“理性人”假设的缺陷。为了更好地解释这些异常现象,学者们将认知心理学研究成果中人的认知性偏差引入经济学研究领域,并逐步形成了经济学的一条新的重要分支——行为经济学。过度自信作为普遍存在的非理性心理因素,从行为经济学诞生之初就成为学者研究的焦点。在企业的经营管理中,投资作为企业获得资源增值的途径,一直以来是企业财务活动的核心,其质量高低对企业生存发展有着重要的影响,学界也一直没有停下对其研究的脚步。上世纪70年代,基于理性人假设的委托代理理论和信息不对称理论对管理者投资行为做了详尽的解释,这两个理论也被奉为经典。随着行为经济学的兴起,越来越多研究者开始利用行为经济学来解释公司投资行为。研究发现,决策者在做出投资决策时,经济利益只是影响其决策的因素之一,其主观心理因素也在做出决策时发挥着重要影响,其中过度自信就是影响投资决策的主观心理因素之一。本文在总结了前人相关理论与研究成果的前提下,提出了符合我国国情的假设,对过度自信衡量方法也进行了适当改进。样本对象选取的是我国A股制造业上市公司2010-2012年之间数据,通过对样本进行描述性分析、相关性分析、多远回归分析、稳健性分析等多种分析方法,建立实证模型来验证假设,以探求管理者过度自信对企业投资的影响。通过实证分析,我们得出了相关研究结论：1、在其他因素不变的情况下,管理者越过度自信,那么其投资的意愿越强烈,投资规模更大,投资量也会更多；2、随着管理者过度自信水平的提高,上市公司资产负债率也会随之增加；3、过度自信管理通常高估自己的经营管理能力及投资项目的盈利能力,倾向于举债投资扩大规模,认为规模效益能带来丰厚利润,但是我们的研究成果表示,过度自信的管理者,其投资回报率相较理性管理者更低。论文最后还从管理者自身和公司两个方面提出针对性的建议,从管理者角度提出加强管理者个人学习技能完善,加强反馈,利用外部工具等技能,从公司层面出发要求完善“两会”及独立董事制度,引入“局外人”制度,加强内部监督、改进内部激励机制和外部管理机制等。本文从行为经济学视角出发,选取过度自信作为切入点,研究了过度自信对企业投资的影响,解释了部分传统理论无法解释的问题,拓宽了企业投资研究的视界,同时也为如何对管理者进行监督与引导,将管理者过度自信对企业决策的影响程度降到最低提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traditional economic theory is based on "rational man" premised on the assumption that people are perfectly rational maximization entirely personal interests of the individual. However, in real life, a lot of "twisted facts" verified "rational man" hypothesis defects. To better explain these anomalies, scholars will research in cognitive psychology cognitive bias introduced into the human field of economics, and gradually formed a new and important branch of economics-behavioral economics. Overconfidence as ubiquitous irrational psychological factors, from the beginning of the birth of behavioral economics has become the focus of academic researchIn business management, as a way to get the EPP, investment has been the core of corporate finance activities in companies, and the quality level of it has an important impact on the survival and development of enterprise, so scholars have never stopped their studies. In the1970s, based on the assumption of rational man theory, the agency theory and the asymmetric information theory did a detailed explanation of behavior on investment managers, so these two theories is also regarded as a classic. With the rise of behavioral economics, more and more researchers began to use behavioral economics to explain the investment behavior. The study found that while policy makers in making investment decisions, the economic interests just one of the factors affecting their decision-making when subjective psychological factors also play an important influence decisions which affect investment decisions overconfidence is subjective psychological factors one.In this paper, the author summarizes the results of the previous theory and research, and puts forward a hypothesis in line with China’s national conditions, and the measure of overconfidence also made appropriate improvements. The selected sample of data objects between2010-2012, China’s stock market listed companies in the manufacturing sector, through the sample descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis to analyze how far, robustness analysis, to establish an empirical model validate assumptions to explore managerial overconfidence on corporate investment relationship. Through empirical analysis, we draw the relevant conclusions:1. The more confident over the manager, his strong desire to invest more;2. The more over-confident managers, asset-liability ratio of listed companies higher.3. The more over-confident managers, the lower the return on investment of listed companies. Finally, the paper also put forward specific proposals, including improving the independent director system, strengthening internal incentive mechanism, and improving internal and external management.From the perspective of behavioral economics to study the impact of overconfidence on corporate investment, and provided some suggestion to supervise and guide the managerial overconfidence degree of influence on business decisions to minimize provided.更多还原