【作者】 李文；

【导师】 王倩；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 金融， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 2007年，次贷危机的爆发使美国国内的金融体系和经济秩序遭到严重破坏，商业银行的“惜贷”行为加剧了流动性的收缩，美国经济因此陷入萧条。同时，利率传导机制的失效极大制约了传统货币政策的效果，美国经济因此而陷入“流动性陷阱”。在此背景下，美联储相继推出四轮量化宽松货币政策，以维持短期利率接近零为前提，通过公开市场操作实现大规模资产购买计划，分别对金融机构和金融市场进行救助。作为世界第一大经济体和危机发源国，美国所采取的量化宽松货币政策实施力度大、受益范围广、具有显著的特点。因此，深入探讨美国量化宽松货币政策所产生的流动性效应，有助于我国借鉴该政策的先进性、规避其局限性。本文将理论分析和实证分析相结合，详细分析了美国量化宽松货币政策的流动性效应。首先，文章从理论上阐述了美国量化宽松货币政策的出台背景、政策内容、预期效应以及传导渠道。其次，本文通过建立VCE模型，分析了量化宽松货币政策分别对金融机构和金融市场流动性产生的影响，实证结果表明：量化宽松货币政策的信贷传导机制对于金融机构流动性的改善作用在初期不明显，但随着时间的推移，促进作用持续增强；政策的资产再平衡机制在短期内对缓解金融市场流动性紧缩产生消极影响，但长期上发挥显著的积极作用。在此基础上，文章进一步结合相关经济数据对量化宽松货币政策所产生的流动性效应进行了详细阐释和深刻的原因分析。最后，本文结合实证分析的结论对美国量化宽松货币政策进行了客观评价，即量化宽松货币政策有效地缓解了美国市场的流动性压力，避免了实体经济的下滑和通货紧缩的加重，对应对危机、稳定金融市场和促进经济复苏方面起到了积极作用；然而，量化宽松货币政策只是特殊时期美联储所运用的非常规手段，并不能形成推动经济发展的持久动力，政策所带来的负面影响也不容忽视。美联储的积极尝试为当前及今后金融危机下中央银行应如何采取货币政策有效应对提供了重要的借鉴案例，我们应学习其先进性、规避其局限性。在金融危机造成流动性紧缩的情况下，中央银行需积极引导实体经济消费和投资，针对不同的经济状况丰富和创新货币政策工具，提升对政策时滞的预测水平，保证政策的前瞻性，此外，货币当局还应提高警惕，加强对金融市场的监管，在提高流动性的同时防范通货膨胀风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sub-prime crisis in the year2007caused serious damage to the USAdomestic financial system and economic order, while the “credit crunch” behavior ofcommercial banks increased liquidity squeeze, which led USA economic to gloom.The Federal Reserve Bank of American (FED) tried to increase the liquidity byslashing the benchmark federal funds rate gradually to a range of zero to0.25percent. However, the USA domestic economy fell into a “liquidity trap” because ofthe inefficient interest rate transmission mechanism, which proves the failure of thetraditional monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the FED carried out four round ofQuantitative Easing Monetary Policies, whose main contents were to keep theshort-term interest rate in a range of zero to0.25percent and complete large-scaleassets purchase plans by the open market operations to pump huge liquidity into thefinancial institutions and financial markets. As the U.S. is the largest economy andthe originated of the crisis, the quantitative easing monetary policy has greaterefforts, broader impacts and more remarkable characteristics. Therefore, in-depthstudy on the liquidity effect of the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy willcontribute to our learning the experience and lessons of the policy.Combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper analyzes theliquidity effect of the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy amply. First of all,this paper tells the backgrounds, the main contents, the expected effects and thetransmission channels of the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy. Secondly,through the establishment of VCE model, the paper analyzes the liquidity impacts ofquantitative easing monetary policy to financial institutions and financial market. The empirical results show that: both of the credit transmission mechanism and theassets rebalancing mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy are effective.In other words, the credit transmission mechanism has little effect to improve theliquidity of financial institutions in early stages, yet as time passed, the active effecthas been promoted obviously; the assets rebalancing mechanism of the QE monetarypolicies exerts a negative impact on the liquidity of the financial markets in the shortterm, but in the long term it has increased the liquidity of the financial marketsobviously. Since on this basis, according to the economic data, the paper explains theliquidity effect of the quantitative easing monetary policy in further and analyzes theprofound reasons in detail. Finally, based the conclusions of empirical analysis, thepaper evaluates the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy. The QE monetarypolicies play a significant role in stabilizing the financial market, avoiding muchmore serious economic collapse and deflation and promoting economic recovery.However, The QE monetary policies are unconventional means that the Fed uses,which cannot promote the economic development in long term, furthermore thenegative effects of the policies cannot be ignored. The paper suggests China’s centralbank on monetary policy operation under financial crisis that the central bank shouldencourage the entity economy consumption and investment, innovate monetarypolicy tools aim at different economic conditions, recognize the time-lag effect ofmonetary policies, strengthen the supervision on the financial markets and guardagainst the inflation risk.更多还原