【作者】 张佳；

【导师】 阮加；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 摘要：综观货币发展的历史,货币形态先后经历了实物货币、金属货币、纸币等不同的发展阶段。20世纪90年代以来,随着电子信息技术和网络通讯技术的不断发展,货币形态朝着电子化方向发展,推动了支付体系由传统方式向电子支付演进。回顾历史,纸币替代黄金作为支付工具出现后,引发不同程度的通货膨胀(或通货紧缩),那么,电子货币对纸币的广泛替代是否会对通货膨胀产生一定的影响呢?本文将从电子货币视角出发,通过理论与实证相结合的方法分析电子货币对通货膨胀的影响。一方面,以电子货币对货币供求和货币流通速度的影响为出发点,结合货币供给模型、货币需求理论以及费雪方程式等理论基础,从理论方面分析电子货币对通货膨胀的影响。另一方面,以理论分析为基础选取相应的变量建立计量经济学模型进行实证分析,并通过实证结果分析电子货币对通货膨胀的影响效应及其程度。通过本文的分析得出以下结论：首先,电子货币的发展使得货币供给量放大而货币需求量缩小,那么它们的增量也将发生同样的变化,从而使得物价水平的增长率被放大,所以电子货币的发展对通货膨胀有一定的放大效应。其次,在短期内,货币供给水平和产出水平都不易调整,那么根据费雪方程式MV=PY,货币流通速度的变化将会引起物价水平在短期内的同向变动,即货币流通速度在短期内变动加快了通货膨胀的形成,所以电子货币的发展对通货膨胀有一定的加速效应。最后,通过实证结果分析得出,货币供给量、货币流通速度及电子货币使用率与物价水平成同向变动的关系。这表明,电子货币的发展与通货膨胀有相关性,且对通货膨胀具有一定程度的放大效应和加速效应。随着电子信息技术的完善,金融体系的创新等方面的发展,电子货币的发展将会不断深化不断扩张,达到高度发达的水平,其对通货膨胀的影响也会更为显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Looking at the history of money development, its form has gone through the physical currency, metal currency, banknotes in different stages. Since the1990s, with the development of electronics information and communication technology, both of currency type and traditional payment system are becoming electronic. Historically, since banknotes replaced gold as a payment tool, there comes the inflation or deflation, would the fact that electronic money instead of banknotes have some impact on inflation? This paper will analyze the influence of E-money on inflation through a combination of theoretical and empirical methods from the perspective of electronic money. On one hand, combined with the model of the money supply, money demand theory and Fisher equation, to analyze the impact of E-money on inflation from the theoretical aspects. On the other hand, this paper will select the corresponding variables based on the theory analysis to establish the empirical analysis. Through the analysis we can get the following conclusions. Firstly, the development of electronic money makes money supply and money demand shrink enlarge, making the growth rate of the price level be amplified, so the electronic money has some amplification effects on inflation. Secondly, it’s not easy to adjust the money supply and output in the short term, then according to the Fisher equation MV=PY, changes in money velocity will cause the price level change as well. It’s means that the money velocity will accelerate the formation of inflation in the short term, so the development of electronic money has some acceleration effects on inflation. Finally, through the analysis of empirical results obtained, we can see that the money supply, money velocity and utilization of E-money have the same changing direction with the price level. It suggests that the development of electronic money is correlated with inflation, and has amplification effect and acceleration effects on inflation. With the improvement of electronic information technology and financial innovation, the development of electronic money will continue and its impact on inflation will be more significant.更多还原