【作者】 吴剑锋；

【导师】 周永务； 王颖；

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 ， 工业工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 自2009年1月初，工业和信息化部为中国移动、中国电信和中国联通发放3张3G牌照，标志着中国正式进入了3G时代。如今，3G移动通信标准在中国实施近4年时间，3G业务发展已相当成熟，移动通信市场的竞争更加激烈，主要表现在两个方面：第一，客户对通信服务的整体要求提高，对通信方式和应用产品的要求更加多样化以及个性化；第二，移动通信市场的竞争已经由开始的增量用户的抢夺转变成对存量用户的争夺。由此导致电信运营商的经营模式逐渐由初期的“技术驱动”向“市场驱动”，“客户驱动”转化。激烈的竞争导致客户处于不稳定的状态，各家运营商都面临着严重的客户流失问题。运营商们已清晰认识到“重发展，轻维系”带来的严重问题，将如何防止客户流失，实施客户维系与挽留，提高用户满意度和忠诚度作为关注的焦点。本文以笔者实习的XX电信公司作为研究对象，利用数据挖掘方法，对移动业务的客户流失和客户维系问题进行研究。本文通过客户的历史通信行为特征（在网时长，出账等）预测该客户流失的可能性，继而将有流失风险的客户进行细分，分别决定采取何种维系手段以及维系成本投入的优先级，采取精细化的客户维系手段，进而实现将有限的成本取得最大的效益。本文采用XX电信公司的部分数据，主要提供数据挖掘在客户精细化维系中的应用方法，为电信行业的客户维系与挽留工作提供有益的借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since early January2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issuedthree3G licenses to China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, marking China’sformal entry into the3G era. Today,3G mobile communications standard implementation inChina nearly four years,3G business development has been quite mature, the mobilecommunications market become more competitive, mainly manifested in two aspects: First,the customer’s overall requirements for communications services to improve thecommunication and application of the requirements of a more diversified product andpersonalized; Second, competition in the mobile communications market has been from thebeginning of the increment of users snatch transformed into stocks of users competition. Theresulting carrier business model gradually from the initial "technology-driven" to"market-driven" and "customer-driven" transformation. Operators have a clear understandingof the "heavy development, light to maintain" the serious problem, how to prevent the loss ofcustomers, the implementation of customer retention and retention, improve customersatisfaction and loyalty as the focus of attention.Thanks to the internship of X, this article uses data mining methods to research CustomerRetention. Using the history of communication through customer behavioral characteristics(length of time in the net, the account, etc.) to predict the likelihood of the loss of customers,and then there will be the risk of loss of customer segments, respectively, as well as decidingwhat measures to maintain the priority of maintaining the cost of inputs to take refinement ofcustomer retention means, so as to realize the limited cost to obtain the maximum benefit. Inthis paper, some of the data XX telecommunications company, the main provider of datamining in customer refinement maintain the application method for the telecommunicationsindustry, customer retention and retention work to provide useful lessons更多还原