【作者】 张艳；

【导师】 李昭华；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 国际商务， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来，我国经济快速发展，特别是对外贸易得到很大程度的提高。我国外贸依存度大，这既有利于我国经济的发展，也存在一定的风险。2007年美国次贷危机以来，全球经济增长速度放缓，中国也不例外，出口下降，股市下跌等问题一一显现。因此，对欧债危机通过国际贸易渠道对外汇市场的影响的研究就显得十分必要。复杂网络理论利用数学矩阵能够直观、形象的描述国际贸易网络，通过进一步计算可以得出欧债危机通过国际贸易渠道的传播系数。本文在复杂网络理论的基础上，通过国际贸易的出口数据，主要考虑每个国家的主要出口目的国，刻画了国际贸易网络。同时考虑了GDP、GDP平减指数、货币和准货币的增长率等每个国家的自身因素，提炼出欧债危机通过国际贸易渠道影响外汇市场的因素。首先系统的介绍了欧债危机影响外汇市场的渠道并对国际贸易渠道进行了详细的阐述，并且运用复杂网络理论是来描述国际贸易网络；其次利用每个国家前五个出口目的国数据，利用数学矩阵描述了国际贸易网络；最后通过相关计算得出欧债危机通过国际贸易网络对外汇市场的影响和传播系数，并通过因子分析得出影响传播效应的因素。总之，本文是将复杂网络理论与债务危机传播理论相结合，得出比较直观的结果，在此基础上对我国如何阻断欧债危机传播给予了指导性的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening-up, China’s economic develop rapidly, especially forforeign trade. China’s degree of dependence on foreign trade is high, which is conduciveto China’s economic development, but there are also some risks. Since the U.S. subprimemortgage crisis in2007, global economic growth slows down, as well as China. Manyproblems appear, such as exports declines, the stock market fell and so on. Therefore, thestudy of the effects that the European debt crisis affects the foreign exchange marketthrough the channels of international trade is very necessary. Complex network theoryuses mathematical matrix portrays the international trade network intuitively, from whichwe can have the coefficient of the European debt crisis spread through the channels ofinternational trade.In this paper, on the basis of the complex network theory and international tradeexport data, mainly considering each country’s main export destination countries, portraythe world trade network. Taking account of factors such as each country’s GDP、 the GDPdeflator、the growth rate of money and quasi-money, extract the impact factors of theEuropean debt crisis affecting the foreign exchange market through the channels ofinternational trade. First, systematically introduce the mechanisms which European debtcrisis affects the foreign exchange market, and use the complex network theory to describethe network of international trade; Second, we use the data of the top five exportdestination of each country and use mathematical matrix describe the trading network;finally we come to the total propagation effects and propagation coefficient that Europeandebt crisis affects the foreign exchange market through international trade network, andfactors affecting the propagation effects through factor analysis.In conclusion, we combine complex network theory and European debt crisiscommunication theory and get intuitive results. Based on the recommendations, we givesome guidance on how to block the spread of the European debt crisis for China.更多还原