【作者】 罗强；

【导师】 王晓鸣；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 工程管理， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 低碳发展是近年来全球为了应对气候变化而诞生的新的理念和行动，其核心是减少发展过程中产生的碳排放。在城市社区碳排放中，建筑和交通的碳排放占据的比重已经越来越大。从城市社区和建设项目的角度，对碳减排进行分析，是建设工程领域需要迫切解决的问题。情景分析法在低碳建设项目规划阶段具有重要的使用价值，它可以分析和描述低碳建设项目规划的不同情形组合，探寻项目最佳的低碳发展路径。利用情景分析法，从建设项目前期规划的角度来研究降低建设项目碳排放量的措施和方法，具有典型的意义。本文以低碳城市建设与社区规划、建设项目策划和统计预测两个理论为支撑，结合对情景分析法概念内涵、适用对象和应用实践三个方面的深入分析，提出了低碳建设项目规划的情景分析流程，即情景方案设计、情景概率建模、情景方案描述和情景分析总结。按此流程对低碳建设项目规划进行了情景分析，描述了低碳建设项目规划的最佳理想型、平均水平型和最低限度型三种情景类型，总结了不同情景碳减排的计算方法，最后从项目土地的集约利用、能源的可持续利用、居民参与意识和社区生态资源循环链四个方面归纳出了低碳建设项目的规划策略。本文选取了百步亭社区低碳建设项目规划和单体建筑规划两个案例进行了重点研究。通过百步亭社区低碳建设项目规划案例，识别出了影响社区低碳发展的五个核心因素，即经济发展水平、低碳发展政策、低碳建设技术、低碳社会意识和周边环境影响；通过计算关键事件发生和组合的概率，得出了社区低碳发展最理想化的情景的概率。通过单体建筑规划案例，对单体建筑的三种不同低碳情景进行了描述和分析，参照基准建筑计算了不同情景的碳减排量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Low-carbon development is new idea and action responding to climate change inrecent years. The core of the low-carbon development is to reduce the carbon emissionsgenerating from the process of development. In the urban community carbon emissions,the proportion of carbon emissions in buildings and transport are increasing. From theangle of urban communities and construction projects, analyzes carbon emissionreduction is a problem need to urgently solve in construction project field.Scenario analysis has important value in the stage of low-carbon constructionproject planning, it can analyze and describe different situation combinations and explorethe best low-carbon development path of the project. From the pre-planning ofconstruction projects, using scenario analysis method to research the measures to reducethe carbon emissions of construction projects is very meaningful.This paper is for the support of two theories, low-carbon urban construction andcommunity planning theory, construction project planning and statistical forecastingtheory. Through in-depth analysis of concept connotation, application objects andapplication practices on scenario analysis method, proposes the scenario analysis flow oflow-carbon construction project planning, the flow is to say: scenario design, scenarioprobability modeling, scenarios description and scenario analysis summary. According tothe flow, researches the low-carbon construction project planning using scenario analysismethod, describes ideal, average, minimum scenario types of the low-carbon constructionproject planning, summarizes the method to calculate carbon reduction of differentscenarios, sums up the planning strategy of low-carbon construction project from landintensive use, energy sustainable use, sense of resident participation and communityecological resource recycling chain.This paper picks up Baibuting community low-carbon construction project planningand a single building planning as two cases for intensively studying. Through Baibutingcommunity low-carbon construction project planning, identifies level of economic development, low-carbon development policies, low carbon construction technology,low-carbon social consciousness and the surrounding environment impact five corefactors influencing community low-carbon development. By calculating the probabilityof the key events and combinations, obtains the probability of the best communitylow-carbon development scenarios.Through a single building planning, describes andanalyze three different low-carbon scenario of the single building, calculates carbonemission reductions of different scenarios refer to baseline building.更多还原