【作者】 杨杰；

【导师】 唐新蓬；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 车辆工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济社会的不断发展，汽车保有量的不断增长，使得道路交通日趋复杂，道路交通的安全风险越来越高，安全管理的难度不断加大，严重威胁着人民的生命财产安全。研究道路交通风险，对于提高道路交通安全管理水平有着重要意义。风险管理，是现代企业三大管理活动之一，它提供了系统的识别和衡量企业所面临的损失风险的知识，以及应对这些风险的方法。本文尝试将风险理论引入到道路交通安全管理中，通过道路交通事故致因理论论证风险管理在道路交通安全管理中的可行性，并提出军队汽车运输安全风险管理的基本理论。本文重点介绍了军队汽车运输安全风险评估与控制的方法，此方法在实例应用中得到了检验。本文的创新点在于尝试将风险理论引入到军队汽车运输安全管理中，采用模糊层次分析和模糊综合评价相结合的方法进行风险评价。既可以发挥模糊综合评价法在运用模糊数学进行指标定量评价的优势，又可以通过模糊层次分析弥补模糊综合评价方法在权重确定方面的不足，避免了过多人为因素干扰的影响，风险控制理论的运用也为后期决策提供了科学依据。总的来说，风险理论对事故的超前认识，能够突破早期的事故学理论，更加科学地认识交通事故原因。把道路交通安全作为一个整体开展风险控制研究，有利于提出更为有力的方法对策，在事故发生前，从源头降低甚至清除相关风险因素。总之，本文介绍的安全风险评估与控制方法，可以为相关决策部门制定车辆事故预防措施提供有益的参考。此方法同样适用于专业运输企业运输安全管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the social and economic development, the auto possession is increasing to make theroad traffic more complicated. The road traffic risk increases constantly. The safetymanagement is more and more difficult. The road traffic becomes a serious threat to thepeople’s life and property safety. The research on road traffic safety risk is significant toimprove the road traffic safety management level.Risk management is one of the three major modern enterprise management activities. Itprovides the knowledge of system identification and measuring the risk faced by enterprise,and a method to deal with these risks. This paper tries to introduce risk theory into the roadtraffic safety management, demonstrate the feasibility of risk management in the road trafficsafety management by the road traffic accident-causing theory, and put forward the basictheory of the military vehicle transport safety risk management. This paper focuses on themilitary vehicle transport safety risk assessment and control method. The method has beentested in the instance of the application.Innovation of this paper lies in making an attempt to introduce risk theory to the safetymanagement of military vehicle transport, and the selection the method combined with FAHPand FCE to risk evaluation. Using FCE plays the advantage in the fuzzy mathematics forquantitative evaluation. And using FAHP can make up for the deficiency of FCE indetermining weight so as to avoid too much interference with human factors influence. Theuse of the risk control theory also provides the scientific basis for late decision.Conclusions, Risk theory’s predictability is able to break through the early accidenttheory, more scientifically understand the vehicle transport accidents-causing. Taking roadtraffic safety as a whole to carry out risk-control studies can put forward the countermeasuresin a more powerful way, so as to reduce and even remove the road-related risk factors fromsource before the accident occurs. In a word, the safety risk assessment and control methodintroduced in this paper can provide beneficial support for other relevant decision-makingdepartments when making preventive measures of vehicle accidents. This method is alsosuitable for transportation safety management of professional transport enterprise.更多还原