【作者】 王婷；

【导师】 丁岳维；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 会计学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济和社会生产的迅速发展，在国家进一步对三大产业进行换代升级，产业结构和布局不断调整的大环境之下，我国公路交通运输作为三大产业发展的基础性运输设施，在未来经济发展中的地位不可小觑，地方政府加大对当地公路建设，旨在完善当地公路网络，促进本省与周边省份的区域经济合作发展所以未来我国地方公路建设的融资量需求也进一步加大。未来地方政府如何合理预测公路建设融资量，从而减小融资成本，减轻政府债务负担是我国地方政府融资过程中的重点。在此背景下，本文旨在通过运用多情景预测法结合营业收入百分比法和线性回归预测分析法，以我国西北A省交通运输厅收入和支出的相关数据为样本，建立多情景预测总模型，并通过营业收入百分比法和线性回归预测分析法对多情景预测法总模型进行完善，从而确切地预测A省2011年至2015年公路建设所需的融资量，最后运用区间估计法对上述预测的融资量进行修正，从而得到较为全面和完善的预测值，然后通过向量对比分析法，对上述修正后的融资量的预测值进行检验，在验证上述多情景预测法结合营业收入百分比法和线性回归预测法，对公路建设融资量预测所建立模型的正确性，最终也确定了A省2011年至2015年较为切合实际的融资金额。因此本文通过定量与定性相结合的预测方法，旨在为我国地方政府对公路交通建设融资提供较为合理和优化的融资量预测方法，并提出较为实用的建议和意见。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China’s national economic and social production, underthe environment of the country further on the three industries upgrading and updatingconstantly adjust the industrial structure and layout, China’s road transport as the basis for thedevelopment of three major industries, transport facilities,status should not be overlooked inthe future economic development of local governments to increase the construction of localroad transport, aimed at improving the local road network, and promote regional economiccooperation and development of the province and neighboring provinces of local roads in thefuture financing of the construction of transportationdemand further increase. Future localgovernment how to reasonably predict the amount of highway construction financing, therebyreducing financing costs, reduce the burden of government debt is the focus of localgovernment financing process.In this context, this paper aims percentage of revenue method and linear regressionprediction analysis through the use of multi-scenario prediction method, the income andexpenditure data to Northwest China A Provincial Department of Transportation, theestablishment of a multi-scenario projected total model, improve the percentage of revenuemethod and linear regression prediction analysis model of the multi-scenario predictionmethod to predict exactly A Province from2011to2015the amount of financing required forthe construction of road transport, and finally the use of interval estimation method of thepredictable financing volume correction, resulting in a more comprehensive and predictivevalue, and then by the vector comparative analysis, to test the predictive value of theamended financing, the combined percentage of revenue in the validation of themulti-scenario prediction method and linear regression prediction, the prediction of theamount of highway construction financing to establish the validity of the model, andultimately determine the a,2011-2015, a more realistic amount of financing.In this paper, a combination of quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods,designed to provide more reasonable and optimization of local government financing of construction of road traffic volume of financing forecasting methods, and put forwardpractical suggestions and comments.更多还原