【作者】 杨慧；

【导师】 卢昆；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 经济的发展与社会的进步使人们越来越追求健康合理的膳食结构。作为一种含有丰富的优质蛋白及多种人体必需维生素的全营养食品，大豆及其制品已经成为人们日常生活中不可或缺的一部分被大众所青睐，国内居民对大豆的消费需求日益增加。中国曾是世界上最大的大豆生产国和出口国，然而，从20世纪90年代开始，中国大豆产业发展缓慢，产量一直徘徊不前，远远不能满足国内对大豆日益增长的需求。这种情况下，中国只能通过进口国外大豆来弥补国内巨大的大豆供需缺口。作为目前全球第一大大豆进口国，中国进口大豆的三个主要来源国是美国、巴西和阿根廷，大豆的对外依存度越来越高，在国际大豆市场上不具备一定的价格发言权和影响力。在当前国际经济金融大融合的背景下，中国大豆产业几乎完全市场化，中国大豆市场也日益受到国际大豆市场的冲击，导致国内大豆价格频繁波动。大豆价格的稳定与否不仅关系到我国豆农和大豆加工企业的利益，还关系到我国农产品价格的稳定，乃至我国农业和国民经济的健康有序运行。从宏观层面上来看，与其他粮食作物相比，大豆是最重要的油料、饲料及食品加工原料，其产业链相对较长，其价格波动不仅会影响到食用油的供求，而且会对畜牧业的养殖成本造成很大的不确定性。另外，大豆价格的波动还将影响到其它农产品的价格，而农产品的价格对农业发展及国内经济的稳定至关重要。从微观层面上来看，大豆价格波动不仅不利于我国豆农稳定增收，也会给整个大豆产业链的上下游企业带来巨大的管理难题和经营压力。本文在大量国内外对大豆价格波动研究文献的基础上，从国际大豆市场对国内大豆价格传导的角度来研究我国大豆价格的波动，并对由此带来的价格风险提出相应的规避策略。本文共分为五个部分：第一部分为绪论，主要介绍了文章的选题背景、研究目的、研究方法及意义，并概况性地介绍了文章的内容以及各章节框架，并对国内外相关文献进行了系统的梳理。第二部分对农产品价格风险进行概念界定，阐述了农产品价格波动的机理，并分别介绍了价格传导理论、市场整合理论和风险管理理论。第三部分对我国大豆的生产贸易及价格波动现状进行分析，主要包括：我国大豆市场总体概况，国内外大豆生产现状，我国大豆贸易现状以及价格波动现状。第四部分对中国大豆价格波动的国际传导进行实证研究，运用Eviews5.0计量软件对国内外大豆市场的价格序列分别进行平稳性检验、协整检验，并通过构建误差修正模型探讨了国际国内大豆市场长短期价格关系及其价格传导，得出结论：国内外大豆市场从长期来看是高度整合的，但国际大豆市场价格的波动不会立刻传递到国内代表省份的大豆批发市场。国际大豆市场影响国内市场是首先通过影响国内大豆主产区市场，进而基于国内各大豆市场之间的协整关系会将此影响波及到整个中国的大豆市场。第五部分提出了中国大豆价格风险的规避策略。第六部分为本文的研究结论与政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economy and the progress of the society, peopleincreasingly pursue a proper and healthy dietary pattern. Soybean and its products, akind of ideal comprehensive nutritional food, which contain rich high-quality proteinand a variety of essential vitamins to human body, are increasingly favored by people.Thus the domestic consumption demand for soybean is increasing during recent years.China used to be the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, but since the1990s, the development of China’s soybean industry began to slow down, and thedomestic production of soybean has been always stuck, which cannot meet theincreasing domestic demand for soybean. In this case, our country can but choose toimport foreign soybean to make up for the large gap between the domestic soybeansupply and demand. As the global largest soybean importer, at present, China importssoybean from three main sources, which are the United States, Brazil and Argentina.China’s soybean import dependence is more and more higher recently, which leads toa limit pricing right and influence in the international soybean market.Under the background of the current international economic and financialintegration, China’s soybean industry is almost completely market-oriented. China’ssoybean market is increasingly impacted by the international soybean market, and thedomestic soybean prices fluctuate frequently. Price stability of the soybean is not onlyrelated to the interests of soybean farmers but the soybean processing enterprises inour country, also relates to the stability of our country’s agricultural products prices,and even the healthy and orderly operation of China’s agriculture and the nationaleconomy. From the macroscopic level, compared with other crops, soybean is one ofthe most important processing raw materials of oil, fodder and food, the industrychain of which is relatively long. The price volatility of soybean will not only affectthe supply and demand of the edible oil, but also cause great uncertainty in thebreeding cost of the animal husbandry. In addition, the price volatility of soybean will also affect the price of other agricultural products, which is of great importance to thedevelopment of agriculture and the stability of the domestic economy. From the microlevel, the price volatility of soybean will not only affect stable income of the soybeanfarmers in our country, but also cause many huge management problems andoperating pressure of the upstream and downstream enterprises in the whole soybeanindustry chain.Based on a large number of the research literature at home and abroad about theprice volatility of soybean, the thesis studies China’s soybean price volatility from theperspective of the international transmission of the price volatility, and puts forwardsome corresponding strategies to avoid the resulting price risk. The thesis is dividedinto five parts: the first part is introduction, which is mainly told about the background,purpose, methods and significance of the research, and summarizes the content andframework of the thesis, and then systematically comb the related literature about thetopic at home and abroad. The second part first defines the agricultural product pricerisk, then expounds the mechanism of agricultural price volatility, and then introducesthe price conduction theory, market integration theory and risk management theoryrespectively.The third part analyzes the status of production and trade of China’ssoybean, which mainly includes the general situation of soybean market in China, thestatus of soybean production at home and abroad and the status quo of the soybeantrade and price volatility in China. The fourth part uses the measurement softwareEviews5.0to make an empirical study of the price volatility of soybean in China fromthe perspective of the international transmission. First, this part makes stationary testand co-integration test of the domestic and international soybean price seriesrespectively, and then it builds the error correction model to study the long-term andshort-term relationship of the soybean market at home and abroad and the pricetransmission. It concludes that the soybean markets both at home and abroad in thelong run are highly integrated, but the price volatility of the international soybeanmarket will not be immediately transmitted to the domestic wholesale soybeanmarkets of the representative provinces. International soybean market impacts thedomestic soybean market by influencing the domestic major soybean markets of the producing areas first, and then based on the co-integration relationship between thedomestic soybean markets, the impact will be transmitted to China’s whole soybeanmarket. The fifth part puts forward some hedging strategies of China’s soybean pricerisk. The sixth part are conclusions and policy recommendations.更多还原