【作者】 郭斌；

【导师】 李京梅；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化和贸易自由化进程的不断发展，对外贸易不仅在一定程度上提高了一国居民的生活水平，也日益成为促进一国经济快速发展强有力的动力。当前中国正处于经济快速发展和经济结构转型的重要时期，我国在扩大内需的同时，更加强调各个地区大力发展对外贸易，使其成为实现我国经济发展和转型的新支点,对外贸易对我国经济发展的贡献日益凸显。对外开放程度的不断深入和贸易规模的不断扩大，极大的促进了山东省经济快速发展，2011年山东省GDP达到了45361.85亿元，达到了历史最高水平。按照2011年人民币对美元年平均汇率6.46来计算，2011年进出口贸易额占我省GDP的比重约为33.61%，由此可见我省经济的快速发展，在很大程度上取决于对外贸易的发展程度。虽然我省对外贸易近年来得到了快速发展，但是我省对外贸易主要依靠粗放型的发展模式，出口产业结构不合理、高新产业发展缓慢、产品国际竞争力水平低以及对生态环境破坏性较大的现象极为突出，成为制约我省对外贸易以及经济可持续发展的主要因素。据统计，2005年山东省在出口商品结构中，初级产品所占的比重高达16.8%，这同发达资本主义国家相比所占的比重仍然较大，同时在机电产品以及高新技术产品等产品的进出口中，出口额在其对外贸易值中所占的比重较小，2010年山东省高新技术产品出口额在山东省出口贸易总值中所占的比重仅为14.71%。同时由于环境保护法律不完善、企业环境保护意识淡薄以及我省对外贸易发展缺乏环境标准的相关制约，近年来对外贸易发展已经对山东省生态环境造成了严重破坏，2012年年底至2013年初，山东省大范围的雾霾天气已经表明我省空气质量正在急剧下降。基于此，有必要对山东省对外贸易发展建立生态环境预警系统。本文通过详细分析山东省对外贸易发展以及生态环境现状，建立了山东省对外贸易生态环境预警指标体系，科学合理的设置预警区间，通过层次分析法对具体指标确定权重，最后以2010年为例，利用可拓物元模型构建了2010年山东省对外贸易生态环境安全预警待评物元矩阵并对其进行实证分析。将实证分析结果与警灯预警信号系统结合起来对山东省对外贸易对生态化境影响和未来发展趋势进行预测和发送预警信号，及时向政府以及相关部门发送预警信号结果。实证分析结果表明，在3个一级指标中，生态环境压力指标处于巨警状态、环境保护及治理指标处于重警状态、社会经济指标处于中警状态，这说明对外贸易发展对生态环境造成的压力较大，政府和企业部门的环境保护治理力度不足，对外贸易的社会经济效益较低。2010山东省对外贸易生态环境安全度为，Si(R2010)=0.167，属于第4级，隶属于重警状态，通过实证分析结果发现，无论是在单个指标还是总指标上，山东省对外贸易发展对生态环境的影响都较为严重，尤其对生态环境压力指标的影响较大，处于巨警状态。针对我省对外贸易对生态环境的影响，本文提出了通过构建预警系统、强化政府宏观调控、完善环境法律法规以及运用环境经济政策等相关措施来降低和解决其负面影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous development of global economic integration and trade liberalization,foreign trade not only improve the people’s living standard,but also increasingly become a strong driving force to promote the rapid economic development of a country.Now China is in an important period of rapid economic development and economic restructuring.With expanding domestic demand, China pays greater emphasis on the developing foreign trade for various regions, making it a new fulcrum for China’s economic development and transition.Foreign trade’s contribution to China’s economic development has become increasingly prominent. Since openness of the deepening and the constant expansion of trade,it has greatly promoted the economic development of Shandong province.In2011,Shandong GDP has reached4.5trillion yuan, reaching the highest level in history.Basing on average exchange rate6.46,approximately33.61%of import and export trade volume accounted for the proportion of GDP.This shows that the rapid development of the province’s economy largely depends on the degree of development of foreign trade.Although our province’s foreign trade has developed rapidly in recent years, it mainly relies on the extensive mode of development, irrational industrial structure of export, the slow development of the high-tech industry, the low level of international competitiveness, and destructive of the ecological environment, these phenomenons are the main factors which restrict the sustainable development of the foreign trade as well as economy. Ac cording to statistics, in the structure of export commodities, the proportion of primary products up to16.8%in2005, comparing with the developed countries,the proportion is still larger.The import and export of mechanical and electrical products as well as products with high-tech products, the proportion of exports in the value of its foreign trade is still smaller.In2010,the share of export of high-tech products in Shandong accounted for gross export only14.71%.Because of imperfect environmental protection laws, weak corporate awareness of environmental protection and the lack of related environmental standards constraint in the development of the province’s foreign trade,the development of foreign trade in recent years had made serious damage to the ecological environment of Shandong Province.At the end of2012to early2013, the wide range of fog and haze have shown that Shandong Province’s air quality is in sharp decline.Based on this, it is necessary to establish the ecological environment early warning system for the development of foreign trade in Shandong Province.In this paper, foreign trade and the ecological state of the environment have been analysis in detail.This paper establishes Shandong provincial foreign trade and ecological environment early warning indicator system,sets the warning range scientifically and rationally, determines the weight of specific indicators through the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the paper uses the extension element model to built Shandong province foreign trade and ecological environment security warning matter-element matrix which will be evaluated,and then make empirical analysis.Combining empirical results with lights warning signal system,the paper analysis the Shandong province’s foreign trade that makes the impact on ecological environment and future trade.,then makes forecast.Finally send warning signal to the government and the relevant departments of the results in a timely manner.The empirical analysis results show that,in first level indicators, pressure indicator of ecological environment is in the giant police state, environmental protection and governance indicator is in the heavy police status, socio-economic indicator is in the middle state pressure. This shows that the development of foreign trade makes grate pressure on the ecological environment, the government and corporate sector have inadequate environmental protection,the social and economic benefits of foreign trade is very low.Ecological environment security degree of foreign trade for2010, belongs to four, under heavy police state.Found through empirical analysis, the development of foreign trade has made seriously impact on the ecological environment, in particular the eco-environmental pressure indicators,in the giant police state. The province’s foreign trade on the ecological environment, the paper proposes to build an early warning system, strengthen the government’s macro-control, and improve the environmental laws and regulations, as well as the use of environmental economic policy measures to reduce and solve its negative effects. Aiming at the impact of the foreign trade on the ecological environment.This paper proposes to build an early warning system, strengthen the government’s macro-control, and improve the environmental laws and regulations, as well as the use of environmental economic policy measures to reduce and solve its negative effects.更多还原