【作者】 刘明；

【导师】 殷克东；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 数量经济学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 21世纪初，联合国正式文件中首次提出了“21世纪是海洋世纪”。这说明未来的国际海洋形势会面临较大的改变，海洋将会成为国家之间相互竞争的主要核心领域，如高新科技引领下的海洋经济竞争和海洋权益维护。目前，各个国家都在加大海洋资源的利用程度，海洋经济已经成为并将继续作为各国经济发展的新增长点。因此，找出我国海洋经济的发展规律，并针对我国的海洋经济制定出适合有效的政策，对我国海洋经济的发展是非常重要的。本文的核心在于应用控制理论及最优控制等方面相关理论对海洋经济的发展“寿命”问题进行了解答。文章分四部分对我国海洋经济系统进行了研究。在第一部分中，文章介绍了海洋经济及动力系统的相关概念，然后对目前国内外学术界较为认同的观点进行了阐述整理，同时，结合文章研究的内容，对最优控制理论进行了简要介绍。第二部分中，首先对当前国内外海洋经济的研究进行了梳理，同时对动力系统的发展完善历程及其应用进行了整理，然后结合海洋经济的特点和动力系统适合研究的对象进行分析，发现目前关于海洋经济的研究大多集中在海洋经济增长的预测，海洋经济的评价问题等。但是，我们知道，任何一个系统的发展都符合罗吉帝斯曲线理论，同样海洋经济的发展也有其“增长寿命”问题。第三部分介绍了动力系统的基本理论，通过对理论的介绍和分析，然后结合我国海洋经济自身的特点，得出了我国海洋经济的发展用动力系统进行研究的可行性，并对我国海洋经济的动力系统模型进行了构建。第四部分为文章的实证部分，由于部分指标变量带有较强的地区性，地区间的差异较为明显，故在实证部分中，以我国四个海洋试点单位为研究对象进行动力系统的构建。结果发现，新型海洋产业发展潜力最大，达到稳定所需的时间最长，其次为海洋生产总值，而较快达到稳定的是海洋传统产业。最后对全文进行了总结和展望。文章的创新点在于：（1）文章将控制理论引入我国海洋经济发展的研究，摒弃了之前仅限于数学和经济学理论的垄断。在微分方程中加入了控制项，这样可以更好的分析我国海洋经济发展的趋势。（2）本文通过对我国海洋经济进行动力系统研究，对海洋经济的发展做出了发展瓶颈的大胆预测，并对我国海洋经济发展的“寿命”进行分析，结合我国实际的海洋政策和国情对海洋经济的发展提出了合理的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the early21st century, the United Nations official documents for the first timeput forward the "21century is ocean century". This shows international ocean in thefuture the situation will face a bigger change, Marine will become the main core area ofcompetition between countries, such as high and new technology of led Marineeconomy competition and the maintenance of maritime rights and interests. At present,all countries in increasing utilization degree of the Marine resources, Marine economyhas become and will continue to serve as the new growth point of national economydevelopment. So, find out the law of development of Marine economy in our country,and aimed at our country Marine economy to develop a suit of effective policy, it is veryimportant to the development of Marine economy in China.This article points four parts to our country Marine economy system that arestudied. In the first part, the article introduces the Marine economy and the relatedconcepts of power system, and then to the current domestic and foreign academic circlesmore agree with point of view expounded, at the same time, combining with the contentof the article, the optimal control theory is briefly introduced.In the second part, first of all to the current research of Marine economy at homeand abroad, the developing course of power system and its application, and thenaccording to the characteristics of the Marine economy and power system analysis forresearch object, found that current research mostly focus on Marine economy growthforecasts in the sea, Marine economic evaluation, etc. But, we know, any systemconform to the development of logistics emperor curve theory, also the development ofMarine economy has its life "problems of" growth. The third part introduces the basictheory of dynamic system, through the introduction and analysis of the theory, andcombining with the characteristics of Marine economy in China itself, and concludedthat the development of Marine economy in China by power study the feasibility of thesystem, and dynamical system model of Marine economy of our country building.The fourth part is the empirical part of the article, because some index variableswith a strong regional, regional differences are more obvious, therefore, in the empiricalpart, with four Marine pilot unit in our country as the research object in the constructionof a power system. Results show that a new Marine industrial development potential, the biggest achieve stability needed for the longest time, second for Marine product, achievestability is faster than traditional Marine industries. Finally, the full text is summarizedand prospected.Article’s innovation lies in:(1) article will control theory to the research of theMarine economy development of our country, slam the door before only in mathematicsand economics theory of monopoly. Added control item in the differential equation, sothat we can better analyze the trend of the development of the Marine economy of ourcountry.(2) this article through to our country Marine economy of power systemresearch, the development of Marine economy has made the development bottleneck ofbold prediction, and "longevity" of the Marine economy development of our country isanalyzed, combining with the reality of our country’s Marine policies and conditions forthe development of Marine economy put forward reasonable Suggestions.更多还原