【作者】 张磊；

【导师】 赵文清；

【作者基本信息】 安徽工业大学 ， 企业管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 根据产品生命周期原理，任何产品都有生命周期，都要经历进入市场的投入期，市场逐渐打开的生长期，竞争激烈的成熟期，最后进入衰退期退出市场的过程。耐用消费品也是一样的，为了使从事耐用消费品行业及其相关行业的企业收益最大化，本文基于logistic模型，提出了我国耐用消费品生命周期指数，并使用该指数作为明确我国城镇居民19种耐用消费品未来趋势的指标。居民耐用消费品的拥有量可以反映出当地居民的生活水平，也可以反映出当地的经济实力，同时也能从侧面反映出当地的消费观念，文化观念、社会观念等等，是一项非常值得研究的统计指标。通过研究一个地区的耐用消费品生命周期得到该地区耐用消费品的未来走势和市场规模，对推动区域经济发展是十分有意义的。本文针对我国31个省和安徽省13个地市的城镇居民的19种耐用消费品进行研究，分析其在各个地区的未来趋势和市场规模，在此基础上，运用聚类分析，考察不同因素对耐用消费品生命周期的影响。分析结果表明，我国城镇居民耐用消费品的生命周期阶段复杂多变，各个省市阶段不一，但是就从西部，中部和东部以及收入水平和收入增长幅度而言，各个耐用消费品仍然具有一定的规律性。本文的研究将有助于从事耐用消费品行业及其相关行业做出科学的管理决策，提高公司的营销能力，为进一步实现企业科学化管理做出贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the theory of the product life cycle, product has its life cycle. Theyall experience to enter the market—the Introduction Stage, gradually open the market–the Growth Stage, struggle with the intense competition—the Maturity Stage,withdraw from the market—the Decline Stage. The durables goods is the same. Thispaper studies the logistic model in order to company engaged in consumer durablesindustry and its related industries that will maximize benefits. This paper proposes anew index of our country durables goods, through the index predicts the future trendsof19species of durables goods of the urban residents of our country.Durables goodsvolume can reflects the level of life of local residents, also can reflect local economicstrength, at the same time also can bauma reflects the local consumption concept,culture concept, social concept and so on.It is meaningful to research the product life cycle of durables goods in a region.It can get future trends of this region and market size of this species of durables goods.This paper researches about the durables goods of the species in19from the31provinces in our country and13cities in Anhui province, and analyzes future trendsand market size. Based on this study, this paper applies to the cluster analysis fordifferent factors on durable consumer goods life cycle impact. The results show thatthe product life cycle of durables goods in our country is complicated and volatile.However, it also has regularity in geographical distribution and economic levels. Thisstudy will contribute to the enterprise which engaged in durables goods industry andits related industries in management decision, and improves the management level ofthis enterprise; in order to further realizes enterprise scientific management tocontribute.更多还原