【作者】 王静；

【导师】 武萍；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 社会保障， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随着我国现代化建设和全面建成小康社会的目标的建立，社会保障作为实现目标的重要手段之一，越来越受到重视。财政社会保障支出作为政府财政支出的一个分支，不仅在政府保障民生的目标上发挥了很大的作用，也有利于一国经济的发展。财政为社会保障支出，可以增加社会成员的收入，促进消费和投资，从而促进经济的发展；财政为社会保障支出，有利于社会保障发挥劳动力再生产的保护器作用，促进劳动力资源发挥更好的效果，从而促进经济的发展。2012年两会期间，两会代表在会议上提出，若是以现行口径测量，那么到2013、2020以及2049年，财政社会保障支出占政府财政支出的比重应当分别达到15%、20%和30%。本文首先解析了相关概念，结合对中国财政社会保障支出的现状和未来趋势的数据性描述，构建数据模型，运用Eviews6.0软件等进行因果分析和敏感度测算的实证分析,得出中国财政社会保障支出对经济增长有促进作用，并提出扩大财政社会保障支出的建议。本文除了绪论外共分四个部分：第一章阐述了本文中所使用的相关概念和理论。对研究中需要涉及到的两个概念进行界定，同时对乘数效应理论、格兰杰协整理论以及交易费用理论等相关理论进行论述。第二章介绍我国财政社会保障支出的情况。描述我国财政社会保障支出的结构、影响因素、问题、规模等，重点在我国社会保障改革趋势下进行合理假设，分支出项目对我国财政社会保障支出未来的支出额进行数据性预测。第三章实证分析我国财政社会保障支出与经济增长的相关性。为了防止出现“伪回归”现象，首先对财政社会保障支出和代表经济曾航程度的地区生产总值进行格兰杰因果分析，得出财政社会保障支出和经济增长是相互促进的因果关系。然后利用柯布—道格拉斯函数模型得出经济增长对财政社会保障支出的敏感度。第四章从理论上总结财政社会保障支出通过何种途径促进中国经济的增长，并提出了完善我国财政社会保障支出的建议主要是对财政支出结构进行调整，扩大社会保障支出在其中的比例；增加中央的财政社会保障支出责任并向经济欠发达的农村倾斜；变费为税，用国家和法律的强制力为社会保障筹资；对社会保障的支出要列出预算，预算外的支出应严格把关；努力缩小城乡社会保障支出和体系的差距等。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the establishment of the goal of modernization and a well-off society, socialsecurity as an important means of achieving goals, has been taken more and moreimportant. Fiscal spending on social security as a branch of the government fiscalspending, not only plays an important role in achieving the target of safeguard thelivelihood of the people, but also promotes the development of a country’s economy.Budget for social security spending, can increase the income of social members, promoteconsumption and investment, thereby promoting the development of economy; Budgetfor social security spending, which is beneficial to the social security playing the role ofprotector of labor reproduction, promote labor resources play a better effect, so as topromote the development of economy. In2012, during the two sessions, a representativesuggested in2013,2020,2013, fiscal spending on social security expenditure accountsfor the proportion of fiscal expenditure should not be lower than15%,20%and15%respectively.The paper starts from theory, try to prove that fiscal expenditure on social securitypromotes economic development in our country, combined with the current situation andfuture trend of fiscal expenditure on social security, build a data model, using theEviews6.0etc to make a Causal analysis and empirical analysis, to prove that fiscalsocial security expenditure has a promoting effect on economic growth, and puts forwardsuggestions for the expansion of expenditures on social security.This paper consists of four parts:Chapter1: Expounds the related concepts and theories used in this paper. Definetwo concepts that involve in the paper，at the same time，discuss theory of multipliereffect, granger co integration theory and transaction cost theory。Chapter2: Introducing public expenditures for social security in China. Describe thestructure of, influence factors, scale, issue, etc., focus on China’s social security reformtrend under reasonable assumptions, branch out the project of fiscal social securityexpenditure data of our country in the future.Chapter3: Empirical analysis on fiscal expenditure on social security promotingeconomic development. In order to prevent the phenomenon of “false return ", first of alltake granger causality analysis for fiscal expenditure on social security and GDP, demonstrate that they have granger causal relationship,Then use cob-Douglas functionmodel to calculate the sensitivity of the economic development to fiscal expenditures onsocial security.Chapter4: Theoretically summarizes through what channels the fiscal socialsecurity expenditure promotes the development of China’s economy and puts forward thesuggestions of perfecting our country’s fiscal expenditure on social security. Keyrecommendations include adjusting fiscal expenditure structure, increase social securityinvestment; increase investment of the central government, establishment of a socialsecurity transfer payment system; Broaden the fiscal social security fund-raising channels,levying social security tax; strengthen the management of public expenditures, regulatechannels of social security expenditure; Attaches great importance to the construction ofrural social security system, increase spending for rural social security.更多还原