【作者】 徐进；

【导师】 许朗；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业推广， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 中国是一个农业的大国,农业、农民、农村“三农”问题始终是关系全局的根本性问题。正如邓小平所说：“中国有百分之八十的人口住在农村,中国稳定不稳定首先要看这百分之八十稳定不稳定。城市搞得再漂亮,没有农村这一稳定的基础是不行的。”2004年以来,党中央、国务院“一号”文件连续九次聚焦“三农”,出台了一系列行之有效的强农惠农措施,将农业增效、农民增收、农村稳定作为当前和今后一段时间各级政府的主要工作目标和任务。当前农民的收入水平低于城镇居民,农民消费需求得不到有效满足,因此增加农民收入是扩大农村生活消费的关键。通过对1991年—2010年《奉贤(区)统计年鉴》百户农民收入、生活消费发展变迁、影响因子的全面分析,运用经济学等科学理论,对奉贤区农民收入的发展变迁进行初步的分析和判断,同时对收入与消费之间的内在联系、影响因子运用数学模型进行分析与研究,采用定量分析和定性分析相结合的方式,在区域经济发展的层面上初步把握了农民收入与生活消费的变化规律,从而得出一些基本结论,对城市郊区农业的发展具有一定的指导意义。本文利用国外关于经济学的消费理论和国内关于农民收入和消费的相关研究成果进行理论和实证研究,通过对上海奉贤典型案例的分析,得出一些基本研究结论。主要内容包括：20年来奉贤区农民收入增速先高后低波动较大,工资性收入一直保持高位增长,生活水平不断提高,但与城镇居民的收入差距继续表现扩大趋势,在一定时期和一定范围内呈现不稳定性,主要受到农村政策、农业气候、农民文化、农业布局、农产品价格等因素影响。农民滞后消费、滞后收入对农民的现期消费关系不确定,总体上农民生活消费与收入水平呈正相关。目前农民生活条件得到极大改善,但是要在更高层面有效促进生活消费的增长,改变农民传统的消费理念,提高农民收入,完善社会保障是十分必要的。农民生活消费还表现在食品消费方面的自我约束力强,住房消费、银行储蓄将继续在相当长的一段时期成为农村消费热点。家庭设备、医疗保健、交通通讯、文化娱乐和其它服务等享受性、发展性消费稳定增长。研究表明：建立农业投入稳定增长机制,加大农业支持保护力度,提高农业从业人员素质,改善农村消费环境,引导农民转变消费观念,健全农村社会保障体系是城市郊区增加农民收入和扩大农民生活消费的主要对策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a big agricultural country, problems about Chinese agriculture, rural areas and peasantry are always fundamental issues which will influence the whole situation."80%of Chinese population are living rural areas, and Chinese stabilization will firstly depend on the stabilization of them. The beauty of city need the foundation of country." said Deng Xiaoping. The Party Central Committee and State Department have focused on the three dimensional rural issues for consecutive nine times, and a series of effective measures that are taking to strength and benefit agriculture, which take beneficiating agriculture,increasing the income of peasants and stabilizing rural areas as the target of government at all levels for present and the future. The level of farmers’ income are lower than that of town counterparts, and the markets can not meet the consumer demand of villagers.Thus,the key to enlarge rural life consumption is increase the peasants’income.This paper is trying to do theoretical and experimental research throughout the utility of foreign consumption theory about ecomomics and domestic research production about the revenue and consumption of peasants,and draws some conclusions by taking Shanghai Fengxian District for example.The main component includes:the increasing velocity of local farmers’ income is first high last low for the past20years,while the wage earnings kept greatly going up. Whereas the standard of living is higher than before,the gap between peasants’ revenue and urban dwellers’ revenue is enlarging,the trend of which will appear unstable for a given period of time with limits. It’s mainly subject to rural policy, agricultural climates,peasants civilization,allocation of agriculture and agricultural price.The relation of peasants’ present consumption to their lag consumption and lag revenue is uncertain. At present,peasants’s living conditions are getting better and it is completely essential to effectively boost the increase of living consumption,transform their traditional consumptive idea,upgrade famers’ revenue and perfect social security.It appears strong self-control in food consumption,and housing expenditure and deposits will be the hotpot of rural consumption.Others enjoyment and development consumption in household equipment,health care,transportation and communication,entertainment will steadily rise. Studies show that the main solutions to increase peasants’revenue and enlarge rural living consumption in outskirts of a town are setting up agricultural input increasing mechanism,strongly augmenting the support and protection,enhancing the quality of employees,improving rural consumptive environment,inducting peasants to transform traditional consumptive idea and amplifying rural social care systems.更多还原