【作者】 阳勇；

【导师】 王春峰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 高级工商管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 当前，投资理财已经成为中国老百姓尤其是城镇居民的生活和文化的重要组成部分。2012年3月9日，全国政协十一届五次会议在北京人民大会堂举行第二次全体会议，政协委员冯培恩表示，去年沪深股市分别以21%和28%的跌幅领跌全球股市，5000万股民亏损面达87%，人均亏损4万元，机构投资亏损超过4000亿元。在新浪的一项“2011年投资收益调查”中，共有8.44万网友参与调查。其中34.9%的股民在2011年亏损幅度超过50%，34.1%的股民亏损在30%-50%之间，亏损5%-30%的也有20.1%，合计亏损比例高达89.1%。在2011年中，盈亏平衡已经是万幸，仅4.9%的人实现持平。另有3.2%的投资者盈利在5%-30%，2.7%的投资者盈利幅度在30%以上，实属凤毛麟角。本文作者2000年进入中国入市，2009年进入香港、美国股市。2010年进入天津大学参加EMBA课程的同时，至今一直研究中外股市最成功基金经理的投资方法，以探析适合中国资本市场的投资之路。经过2年的研究，作者通过选股、选时、交易、人性四个维度进行了总结，并形成了金牛战法。鉴于篇幅限制，本文仅仅对金牛战法之选股进行分析与总结，通过三套选股方法，说明股市选股的技术是股票投资成功的基础。同时通过对中国市场四大投资流派的选股方法优势与不足分析，提出了解决方案——基于新的投资流派系统分析流派下的金牛战法。首先，本文根据中外的历史牛股统计分析，筛选出牛股大本营的行业：消费、医药、资源、信息技术。其中消费和医药是中美股市牛股大本营的共性。其次，作者通过分析企业盈利的强劲动力，归纳出品牌垄断、竞争垄断、稀缺资源垄断为中国股市牛股集中营的三大牛股基因，为找寻牛股以及判断其潜力大小提供了依据。然后，本文根据凯恩斯“选美”理论与巴菲特“选妻”理论，提出了“女神”理论，确立了“女神”标准，并通过企业盈利与成长性分析、产品营销分析，最终总结了奢侈品股票是牛股挖掘的焦点。作者还对比了女神选股法与历史归纳法、牛股基因选股法的优势与劣势，并阐述了三种选股方法与金牛战法的关系、女神选股与作者的关系和女神选股法的贡献。最后，作者通过大量的实战与交易记录，证明了女神选股法等选股方法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, financing and investment has already been the important part of Chinese, especially the urban people’s life.On March9,2012, the second plenary of the eleven session of the five meetingof the CPPCC National Committee was held in the Beijing’s Great Hall of the people.The member of the CPPCC, Feng PeiEn demonstrated that the decline range ofShanghai stock market was21%and the decline range of Shenzhen stock market was28%last year, which were the biggest all over the world. He almost pointed out that87%of the investors whose amount was50million in Chinese stock market sufferedloss which was40K Yuan per capita. Meanwhile, the loss of institutional investorswas more than400billion Yuan.Sina carried a investigation about investment profit in2011which involved84.4K net users. It find that there were34.9%of investors whose loss rang was morethan50%,34.1%of investors whose loss rang was between30%~50%,20.1%ofinvestors whose loss rang was between5%~30%. The total amount of loss rate was89.1%.It was lucky to keep profit and loss balance in2011, only4.9%of investorssucceeded. Besides,3.2%of investors’ profits ranged between5-30%,2.7%ofinvestors’ profits were more than30%.The author Yang Yong (describe as Raining hill as follows) entered the Chinesestock market in2000, then entered the Hong Kong stock market and the U.S. stockmarket in2009. In2010, the author began to study EMBA course in TianjinUniversity. At the same time, the author continued to do the research on the mostsuccessful investment approaches in the global stock market to establish a goodinvestment strategy which is adapt to China’s capital market. Through2years of hardworking, Raining hill summarized all the factors from4dimensions which were stockselection, time selection, stock trading and human nature, and proposed his theory of"Raining hill’s time and space5432golden bull strategy".Given the length constraints, this article focuses on the analysis and summary ofstock selection strategy. Through explaining five sets of stock selection method, thearticle demonstrated the stock selection technique is the base of successful stockinvestment. the author propose the solution-the golden bull strategy through analyzingthe advantages and disadvantages of stock selection methods in Chinese market.Firstly, the base camp industries of bull stock were filtered by doing statistical analysis to bull stocks in Chinese and foreign history. These industries are:consumption, medicine, resources and information industries. Among these,consumption and medicine are the common industries in Chinese and U.S. stockmarket.Secondly, the author found the three first-class genes of bull stocks which are themonopoly of brand, the monopoly of competition and the monopoly of scarceresources by analyzing the strong driving force of corporate earnings. And thisprovided the basis for seeking bull stocks and judging their potentials.Thirdly, the author proposed the Goddess Theory based on the Keynesian beautycontest theory and Buffett’s wife-chosen theory, and set the standards of Goddess.Finally, the article summarized that luxury industry stocks are the focus of bull stocksdigging by analysis on enterprises’ profitability and growth and product marketing.The advantages and disadvantages of the stock-select method based on historicalinduction, the stock-select method based on bull stocks’ gene and the stock-selectmethod based on the Goddess Theory are compared in present article. And the relationbetween the golden bull strategy and the other three methods above-mentioned, therelation between the stock-select method based on the Goddess Theory and author, thecontribution of the stock-select method based on the Goddess Theory aredemonstrated in present article.At last, the validity of goddess stock-selection method was proved by largeamount of the author’s stock trading practice.更多还原