【作者】 王丽丽；

【导师】 王媛；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 环境科学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 本文基于投入产出分析方法，结合2002年、2005年、2007年中国投入产出表以及各行业相关数据，首先，分析了贸易隐含碳常用3种测算方法的异同点。其次，分析中国2002年-2007年贸易隐含碳排放情况；再次，对中国的产业进行国际竞争优势的判别，分析中国各产业在国际分工中的地位。最后，分析产业关联性，试图找出碳排放较少但对中国经济增长有促进作用的产业，为我国建设资源节约型经济结构提供一定的参考。通过研究，本文得出以下结论：（1）基于完全需求系数计算的贸易隐含碳的测算方法相对最为合理。（2）2002-2007中国是隐含碳净出口国且净出口隐含碳量迅速上升。2002年、2005年和2007年，中国净出口的隐含碳排放分别达615.12Mt、1590.93Mt和1928.93Mt。（3）出口总量是导致出口隐含碳增加的最大驱动因素，中间结构次之，碳排放强度对出口隐含碳的变化起抑制作用，出口结构对出口隐含碳的变化几乎没有影响。以2002-2007年为例，这四个因素所占比例分别为106.58％、10.80％、-20.00％以及2.62％。（4）我国具有国际竞争优势的产业主要是中、低碳产业，高碳产业的竞争劣势显著。我国大多数产业是以产业内贸易为主，2007年，非洲是我国隐含碳的唯一净进口地区（26.20Mt）。（5）碳生产率存在着明显的行业差异，重工业应该成为我们进行内部调整的主要对象，高科技工业应该成为我们大力发展的主要对象，轻工业应该成为继续发展的主要对象。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the input-output table (2002-2007) and energy datas, firstly this paperanalysised the similarities and differences of three methods which used to calculateembodied carbon emissions in international trade. Secondly, I have measured theamount of embodied carbon emission in China. Thirdly, we analyzed industries’situation of international competitive advantage. Based on the industries interdependtheories, at last this paper trying to find out this kind of industries which emissionedless embodied carbon but have played a key role to promote economic growth inChina. These can provide some information which is benefit to build a low-carboneconomic structure in China. The main results got from this study showed as follow:（1） The embodied carbon emission method is the most reasonable whichbase on demand coefficient.（2） China is a net exporter of embodied carbon emission and the amount ofembodied carbon emissions was rised rapidly between2002and2007. The netexported embodied carbon emissions of China reached up to615.12Mt,1590.93Mtand1928.93Mt in2002,2005and2007, respectively.（3） From2002to2007, the effect of CO2emissions intensity(-20.00％) wasnegative, whereas the effects of the other three factors were all positive. Among fourfactors, the total volume of exports(106.58％) was found to be the largest contributorof carbon emissions, follow by the structure of intermediate inputs(10.80％). Theeffect of structure of exports was very small(2.62％).（4） The competitive advantage industries are mainly belonging to lowcarbon industry, whereas the high carbon industry competitive disadvantagesignificantly. Africa is the only net import region of China’s international trade carbontransfer (26.20Mt).（5） There is a significant difference in carbon productivity in differentsectors of China. And the energy industry is the first choice which needs internaladjustment urgently; high technology industries should become the key sectors whichwe development urgently; light industries are the objects of our steady development.更多还原