【作者】 王欣；

【导师】 张军海；

【作者基本信息】 河北师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 CA_Markov模型是CA模型与Markov链模型的结合体，是一种基于栅格运算的定量分析模型。在CA_Markov模型的运用中涉及到数据的三种特征，分别是时间特征、空间特征和属性特征。在现有研究中，研究者通过人为改变空间特征和属性特征的方法达到提高CA_Markov模型模拟精度的目的，没有充分考虑到时间特征对CA_Markov模型模拟精度的影响。随着遥感影像等数据源的不断丰富，研究者已具备挑选基础数据的条件。现有研究中CA_Markov模型的模拟数据一般只有二到五期，并以其中一期为检验数据进行模拟精度评价，研究过程缺少对模拟数据的筛选过程。本文通过将时间序列分析模型与CA_Markov模型相结合，从分析和运用数据的时间特征角度入手，以蔚县剪纸艺人分布变化研究为例，分析文化景观分布空间随时间的变化规律，并将结果运用到CA_Markov模型模拟运算中。主要结论如下：蔚县剪纸文化发展具有明显的时间特征，著名艺人出现、重要历史政治事件等是蔚县剪纸历史发展阶段的时间分割点。蔚县剪纸文化发展的每个阶段都有各自的发展特点，从1834年至1930年的96年中，知名艺人数由1人增加为35人，年增长率为35.42%。有记载的艺人村庄数由1个增加为11个，年增长率为10.42%，这一阶段是蔚县剪纸艺术的缓慢发展时期。从1931年至1966年的35年中，艺人数由35人增加为78人，年增长率为119.44%。有记载的艺人村庄数由11个增加为28个，年增长率为47.22%，这一阶段是蔚县剪纸的快速发展时期。从1967年至2006年的39年中，其知名艺人数量艺人数由78人减少为30人，年增长率为-120.00%。有记载的艺人村庄数由28个减少为10个，年增长率为-45.00%，这一阶段是文革衰落期和文革后产业化转型期。蔚县剪纸文化的传播在空间分布上形成明显的剪纸生产区，区内以中短距离为主，传播区域沿壶流河两岸扩散。1889年至1909年属于蔚县剪纸缓慢增长期，形成了县城—南张庄和李家庄双中心发展模式，剪纸技术在两个生产区均为短距离传播。整体上，村庄数量由1889年的5个增加到1909年的9个，数量增加80%，年增长率为20%，村庄分布由蔚县中部向东北和西南短距离扩散。1909年至1936年属于蔚县剪纸由缓慢增长期向快速增长期发展的过渡阶段。整体上，村庄数量由1909年的9个增加到1936年的14个，数量增加55.56%，年增长率为18.52%，村庄分布除由蔚县中部向东北和西南短距离扩散外亦伴有南北方向扩散。1943年至1963年属于蔚县剪纸快速增长期，这一时期新增了位于蔚县东北部的冀家嘴生产区。整体上，村庄数量由1943年的16个增长为1963年的29个，数量增加81.25%，增长率为65%，村庄分布由蔚县中部向东北和西南短距离扩散显著，南北方向亦有明显扩散。蔚县剪纸技艺的传播具有派系特征，每个派系都有其自身的文化传播特点。县城—南张庄生产区是王老赏派系的主要传播区，艺人分布相对集中，该区域传播距离以短距离为主，中短距离为辅，因此作者将其归类为中短距离传播区。李家庄生产区是温新春派系的主要传播区之一，温新春派系注重空间扩散传播，区内以短距离传播为主兼有中短距离传播。本文构建TS_CA_Markov（即时间序列分析_元胞自动机_马尔科夫链）复合模型，并给出了可行的数据筛选和模拟运算流程：构建蔚县艺人时空数据库→相关数据选取→时间序列分析→制定模拟规则→模拟运算。本文以蔚县剪纸艺人研究为例，选取艺人数量时间序列数据作为蔚县艺人时空分布时间序列数据的相关数据，对艺人数量时间序列数据进行时间序列分析，选择残差较小数据作为实验组数据，残差较大数据作为对比组数据。利用专家打分的方法，从艺人故事、从艺时长和所获荣誉三个方面对蔚县剪纸艺人影响力进行评价，制定新的模拟规则，并应用于CA_Markov模型的模拟运算中。实验结果显示对比组预测正确村庄数为9个左右，正确率达到64.29%，实验证明CA_Markov模型适用于对文化景观模拟。实验组预测正确村庄数为12个左右，正确率达到85.71%。经假设检验实验组模拟精度显著优于对比组，证明通过模拟数据的筛选可以显著提高CA_Markov模型模拟精度。实验同时证明了标准残差是模拟数据选取的关键指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The CA_Markov model is a combination of the CA model and Markov.This model is aquantitative analysis model based on grid computing. Three characteristics related to the datain the use of CA_Markov model, temporal characteristics of the spatial characteristics andattributes. In the current study, the researchers by artificially changing the spatialcharacteristics and attributes to achieve the purpose of improve CA_Markov modelsimulation accuracy, did not fully take into account the impact of the time the characteristicsof CA_Markov models precision. With the remote sensing images and other data sources andconstantly enrich, the researchers already have a selection of basic data. The the existingstudies CA_Markov model analog data is generally only two to five, and a test data for theevaluation of the simulation accuracy, the course of the study is the lack of analog datascreening process. This article by the time series the analysis model CA_Markov model phase,starting from the time of the analysis and use of data characteristic angle Yuxian paper-cutartist distribution change research, for example, to analyze the cultural landscape spatialdistribution of variation over time, and use the results to model computing in CA_Markov.The main conclusions are as follows:Yuxian paper-cut cultural development has obvious temporal characteristics of famous artists,important historical and political events Yuxian paper cutting time split point of the historicalstage of development. Yuxian paper cutting each stage of cultural development has its owncharacteristics of the development96years from1834to1930, the number of well-knownartists from1to35, the annual growth rate of35.42%. Artists recorded the number of villagesincreased from1to11, with an annual growth rate of10.42%, this stage is a slow period ofdevelopment of Yuxian paper-cut art.35years from1931to1966, the number of artistsincreased from35to78, the annual growth rate of119.44percent. Artists recorded thenumber of villages increased from11to28, with an annual growth rate of47.22%, this stageis a period of rapid development of Yuxian paper-cut. From the39years from1967to2006,the number of well-known artists artists number was reduced from78people to30people, an annual growth rate of-120.00%. Artists recorded the number of villages reduced to10from28, the annual growth rate of-45.00%, this stage is the transition of the decline of the CulturalRevolution and after the Cultural Revolution industrialization.Yuxian paper-cut the spread of culture in the space distribution form a clear paper-cutproduction area, the region in a short distance, the the propagation area along the pot Riverproliferation.1889-1909Yuxian paper cutting period of slow growth, the county-Southzhangzhuang and lijiazhuang center development model, paper cutting in two productionareas are a short distance transmission. Overall, the number of villages increased from five in1889to nine in1909,80%increase in the number of annual growth rate of20%, the villagedistributed by the Central Yuxian spread short distance to the northeast and southwest.1909-1936is Yuxian paper-cut by a period of slow growth to the rapid growth of thetransitional phase of the development. Overall, the number of villages increased from nine in1909to14in1936, the number increased by55.56%, the annual growth rate of18.52%, thevillage distribution of diffusion short distance to the northeast and southwest by the CentralYuxian also associated with north-south direction of diffusion.1943-1963period of rapidgrowth, the Yuxian paper-cut in this the newly increased located in the northeastern part ofYuxian Hebei Jiazui production area. Overall, the number of villages increased from16in1943to29in1963, the number increased by81.25%, the growth rate of65%, the villagedistributed by the Central Yuxian diffusion significantly short distance to the northeast andsouthwest, there is an apparent north-south direction spread.Yuxian paper cutting skills spread factions characteristics, each faction has its own culturepropagation characteristics. County-South Zhangzhuang production area is the the Wong Loreward factions spread area, distribution of the relative concentration of artists, distance to theshort distance spread in the region, supplemented by the short distance, the authors classifiedas short-range propagation region. Lijiazhuang production area is one of the the WenxinChun factions spread area, Wenxin Chun factions focus on spatial diffusion spread shortdistance spread in the region both in the short-distance transmission.The paper constructs TS_CA_Markov (ie, time-series analysis_the cellular automata_ Markov chain) composite model, and gives a feasible data filtering and analog computingprocess: build of Yuxian artists spatio-temporal database→data→select→time seriesanalysis rules of analog→analog operation.Yuxian paper-cut artists of selected artists the number of time-series data relevant data asYuxian artists time and space distribution of time-series data, time series analysis of timeseries data on the number of artists, choose the smaller residual data as the experimentalgroup data, the residuals larger data as a comparison group data. The method of scoring byexperts from the artist story, art duration and received honors three aspects of Yuxianpaper-cut artists influence evaluation, develop new simulation rules, and applied to the analogcomputing CA_Markov model.Experimental results show that the comparison group to predict the correct number of villagesaround9, the correct rate of64.29%, the experiment proved CA_Markov model is suitable forthe simulation of the cultural landscape. Experimental group to predict the correct number ofvillages about12correct rate of85.71%. Hypothetical test experimental group simulationaccuracy was significantly better than the control group, proved by the screening of theanalog data can significantly improve the CA_Markov model simulation accuracy. Meanwhile,standard residuals are the key indicators selected by the analog data.更多还原