【作者】 丁一；

【导师】 刘金全；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 与货币政策一样财政政策对宏观经济的调节作用也是不容小觑的。改革开放后，根据我国各个历史阶段经济发展的特点，政府依次采取了与其对应的政策，并都对经济的调节起到了显著效果。尤其在当前经历了2008年金融危机后，我国又再度实施了积极的财政政策，同时还配合以稳健的货币政策，这对经济的复苏起到了积极的促进作用，但当经济回暖后，是否应转变财政政策，如何调节政策等都成了至关重要的问题。由此可见对财政政策和经济增长之间的关系进行研究有着重要理论意义和现实意义。本文主要对财政政策与经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。其中选取的变量中GDP为季度数据，而财政支出，货币供应量和物价指数则为月度数据，在以往的研究中为了构建可估计的同频数据VAR模型，通常的做法是将一些高频的信息进行了舍弃，但不同频率的数据都具有其独有的信息和趋势，所以难免造成估计结果的偏差。在本文中，为了避免这种信息的损失，对可观测到数据进行充分的利用，引入了基于贝叶斯方法的混频向量自回归模型，充分利用了高频信息对财政政策与经济增长间的关系进行研究。同时经过与同频数据估计结果进行比较，证实了混频数据估计的结果要优于同频数据估计的结果，证实了充分使用可获得信息的估计更为有效。同时本文的实证结果还表明GDP冲击会对财政支出造成显著的正向影响，这也就验证了在1996年到2012年间“瓦格纳法则”在我国的是成立的。这说明了随着我国经济的不断发展，我国财政支出也会随之逐步增加，政府在经济中的地位逐步提升；而财政支出的扩张则会对经济增长产生消极的影响。由此可见，在1996年以来，我国的经济状况日趋成熟，若仍长期的实施积极的财政政策非但不能促进经济增长，还会引发通货膨胀和赤字过高导致的财政风险等问题。所以在经济中未发生激变如战争，经济危机或灾害时，政府应当实施稳健的财政政策，以确保经济的长期平稳发展。全文共分四章，在第一章中介绍了选题意义和背景，同时对了西方学者和我国学者关于财政政策与经济增长的若干具有代表性的观点进行了综述。在第二章中，对财政政策与经济增长关系的理论进行了介绍，其中包括瓦格纳法则，内生增长理论中的财政政策，挤出效应和乘数效应以及凯恩斯学派中的财政政策理论。第三章中则对所使用的MF-VAR模型进行了介绍。包括其中的吉布斯抽样等计算方法的介绍。最后，在本文的第4章中，进行了基于混频数据的我国财政政策与经济增长关系的实证研究，具体的验证了我国财政支出与增长之间的关系。并在得出实证结果后，在文章的最后进行了总结并给出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The regulation function of fiscal policy on the macro-economy is strong as wellas the monetary policy. After the reform and opening up, Chinese government hasadopted corresponding policies based on the specific characteristics of differenthistorical stages in China, which all played a significant role on the economyadjustment. Especially when facing the financial crisis in2008, Chinese governmentagain implemented proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, whichpositively effected on the economic recovery. However after economic growthresumes, it has been crucial that whether to change the fiscal policy and how to adjustthose policies. Therefore the study on the relationship between the fiscal policy andthe economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance.This article mainly studies on the relationship between fiscal policy andeconomic growth. Among the selected variables, GDP is a quarterly data, while thefiscal expenditure which includes money supply and price index is a monthly data. Inorder to build the estimable common-frequency VAR model, previous studiesalways abandoned some high-frequency information, which unavoidably resulted inthe outcome bias in that information with different frequencies have respectiveuniqueness and trends. This article makes the best of the observable data andhigh-frequency information and introduces the mixing vector autoregressive modelbased on bayesian method so as to avoid information loss. Meanwhile by comparingwith the results of common-frequency data, it has been approved that resultsestimated from mixed-frequency data is superior to that of common-frequency dataand that estimation based on making the best of obtainable information is moreeffective. This article also confirms that the impact of GDP can positively influenceon the fiscal expenditure, which verifies that Wagner’s Law is true in China from 1996to2012. It has also been approved that with the continuous development of oureconomy, the fiscal expenditure gradually increases, the status of government in theeconomy improves, but the expansion of fiscal expenditure will negatively effects onthe economic growth. Thus it can be seen that our economy is becoming mature since1996. Implementing the proactive fiscal policy in long term will cause financial riskssuch as inflation, high deficit and so on far from promoting the economic growth.Therefore the government should implement prudent fiscal policy so as to maintainthe long-term stable economic development when economic catastrophes includingwar, financial crisis or disaster do not occur.This article is divided into four chapters. The first chapter introduces thesignificance and background knowledge of the topic and summarizes representativestandpoints of western and Chinese scholars on the fiscal policy and economicdevelopment. The second chapter introduces the theories of the relationship betweenfiscal policy and economic development, including Wagner’s Law, fiscal policy ofendogenous growth theory, crowding-out effect, multiplier effect and the fiscal policytheory of Keynesian school. The third chapter introduces MF-VAR model and somecalculation methods like Gibbs sampling. Last but not the least, the last chaptercarries on the empirical study on the fiscal policy and economic growth base on themixed-frequency information and concretely verifies the relationship of our fiscalexpenditure and economic growth. Meanwhile, the last chapter also makes asummary and gives policy recommendations after obtaining the empirical results.更多还原