【作者】 陈红；

【导师】 李德军；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳工业大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化趋势的不断发展以及世界大市场的逐步整合，各个国家都希望本国能够在国际上取得更大的利益以及竞争的优势，因此各国纷纷参与到区域经济一体化的组织建设中，我国也顺应了这一时代发展潮流。CAFTA于2010年1月1日，正式启动，该组织是目前由发展中国家组成的最大的一体化组织，它的地位仅次于EU和NAFTA。CAFTA建立后，不仅对成员国的政治文化方面产生了重要影响，而且对经济贸易方面更产生了显著的影响，毕竟寻求经济利益的最大化是中国和东盟各国促进经济合作的基础，因此本文主要从经济效应方面展开分析。国内外关于中国和东盟自贸区的效应分析研究颇多，因此本文首先对其做了详细的整理并借鉴了相关的参考文献，之后分析了区域经济一体化的相关的理论分析，分别从动态和静态两个角度进行研究分析。分析结果发现，CAFTA的成立给双方带来了显著的规模经济效应以及贸易扩大效应，并且促进了双方之间的投资效应和促进竞争效应的发展，但同时也存在一系列相应的问题，通过对双方间的贸易重整效应分析，发现虽然双方贸易额处于不断上升的态势，但是双方贸易的商品结构比较接近，因此双方产业结构的调整，资源配置的合理布局是需要首要解决的问题；双方之间的贸易流量也发生显著的变化，本文通过借用引力模型对进行分析，发现国家的GDP对双方贸易的发展有促进作用，而两国之间的距离则会对其产生阻碍作用，人口和国家的面积作用不显著。最后，提出了我国在自贸区建成后的路径选择及相关政策，并分析了“10+3”合作机制的成果及面临的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economic globalization and constantly integration of theworld market, in order to gain greater benefits and competitive advantages, all thecountries or regions from all over the world have to participate or organize the regionaleconomic integration, and our country is complied with the development trend. CAFTAwas established in January.1st,2010, which is the largest integration organization thatmade of developing countries. At the same time CAFTA is the third integration of regionaleconomy cooperation organization after EU and NAFTA.There is an enormous effect on politics and culture of the members, but the economicis more obvious after the establishment of CAFTA. As the benefit is the base of thisorganization, so this paper pays more attention to economic effect.Now there are so many papers about analyzing effects, so firstly the paper cleans upthe detailed information for reference. Based on some theories of regional economyintegration, the paper then analyses static effect and dynamic effect of CAFTA. This paperconcludes that CAFTA promotes the trade expansion effect, scale economy effect, theinvestment and compelition effect. Also some problems should not be ignored. Tradestructure is close between members after trade reforming analysis, and need to improveindustrial structure, optimize the allocation of resources. By using gravity model the paperanalyses trade flow between members, and found that GDP of those members promotestrade development, but the distance between countries has negative effects, the populationand area of countries could be ignored. Finaly, some strategies are given after theestablishment of CAFTA, and analyzes the results and problems of10+3cooperation.更多还原