【作者】 刘明；

【导师】 张立明；

【作者基本信息】 湖北大学 ， 人文地理学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来旅游业在世界范围内迅速发展,成为许多国家新的重要的经济增长点,旅游业迎来了黄金发展期。入境旅游在旅游业中占有重要的位置,对增加外汇收入、促进国际收支平衡、提升区域形象、带动相关产业发展等有着重要的意义。武汉作为我国中部地区中心城市,自改革开放以来入境旅游业总体呈稳定快速发展态势,但与旅游发达地区相比还存在差距。本文以武汉入境旅游客源市场为研究对象,依据相关统计资料和市场调查资料,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,首先从时间、空间、消费结构等方面分析武汉市入境旅游客源市场的总体特征,结合这些特征并借鉴已有同类研究成果对武汉入境旅游客源市场的主要影响因素进行分析。对基本引力模型进行适当修改,结合主要影响因素构建武汉入境旅游需求引力模型,并用时间序列方法预测了未来几年武汉入境旅游外汇收入和旅游者停留天数变化情况。综合以上分析预测出武汉入境旅游未来几年的总体发展态势：入境旅游人数年均增长15%左右；入境旅游外汇收入年均增长13%左右,入境旅游者停留时间稳步增加；客源市场仍将以西欧、亚洲、港台地区、北美洲为主。其中,港澳台地区、日韩、东南亚地区市场所占比重将会有较快的增长；美洲、欧洲市场将在现有基础上缓慢增长；大洋洲、非洲市场将保持相对稳定。最后,根据发展现状和预测结果提出了加快武汉入境旅游发展的有针对性的对策建议。本文关于武汉入境旅游发展现状及客源市场未来的发展趋势的研究,对于制定区域旅游和经济政策有着重要的参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, tourism industry in the world has gained development by leaps and bounds,which become the important new economic growth point in many countries, tourism ushered in the golden development. Inbound tourism in tourism occupies an important position, to increase foreign exchange income, promoting the balance of international payments, enhancement of regional image, driving the development of relative industries and so has important significance. As a regional center city in central China, since reform and opening-up wuhan inbound tourism have generally been steady and rapid development situation, but with tourism developed area compared also has the disparity.This paper take the inbound tourism market in Wuhan as the research object, according to relevant statistics and market research material, using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method. From the time, space, consuming structure analysis in wuhan entry of overall features of tourist market, combining these characteristics similar research results from existing to explore wuhan entry tourist market main influencing factors. Appropriate modification basic gravity model, combining the main influence factors to the entry tourism demand construct wuhan gravity model, using time series prediction years with wuhan tourism foreign currency income and tourists changes stay days. Comprehensive above analysis to predict the future of Wuhan inbound tourism overall development situation: Tourist arrivals an annual growth about15%, inbound tourist foreign exchange income about13%average annual growth, entry tourists retention time steadily increasing. Western Europe, Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan regions, North America will still for the main tourist market. Among them, in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, Korea and Japan, southeast Asia market proportion will have a faster growth, America and Europe market will based on existing slow growth, Oceania and African market will remain relatively stable. Finally, according to the development status and the result, the paper proposes some speed up the development of wuhan tourism has pointed countermeasure.This article about the entry tourism development of wuhan tourism market situation and the future development trends of the study has important reference meanings in establishing the regional tourism and economic policies.更多还原