【作者】 王玮；

【导师】 邓文胜；

【作者基本信息】 湖北大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用变化研究是目前全球变化研究的前沿和热点课题,而区域土地利用变化动态监测研究也已成为土地利用变化研究的重要组成部分。应用RS和GIS技术进行土地利用动态变化监测在我国已有近20多年的历史,动态监测的目的主要有以下两个：一是利用遥感影像监测土地利用的动态变化情况；二是利用监测所得数据对影响土地利用的变化过程、变化趋势进行分析,对未来土地利用变化趋势的预测提供有利的依据。本文以湖北省郧县为例,利用2000年陆地资源卫星Landsat TM影像数据、2008年第二次土地利用现状数据和2020年全国土地利用总体规划数据,结合影响区域土地利用变化的经济、社会、环境等综合因素,在遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)技术的支持下,采用相关分析软件(SPSS)和数学分析方法(主成分分析、多元时空序列马尔柯夫链分析等方法),对郧县土地利用变化及驱动力进行定性、定量研究,并提出了土地可持续利用的对策,不仅为该区域未来的土地资源合理利用提供了可循依据,同时也为全国其他同类地区的县域土地利用动态变化研究提供借鉴。文中,首先介绍了国内外土地利用动态变化研究的现状及发展趋势,进而阐述了本次研究的背景及研究意义,接着介绍了研究中所用到的软件及数学方法、数学模型,然后以郧县的各时期统计资料为基础简述了郧县的自然、社会概况。接下来,本文着重分析了研究期内郧县的土地利用结构及特点,从微观到宏观,从横向到纵向揭示了郧县土地资源数量和质量在时间和空间等方面的分布特征及变化规律。分析结果表明郧县土地利用变化不仅受到自然环境因素的影响,更受到人口、经济、城市化进程及地方政府政策等社会政治因素的制约,而后者正逐步成为主要制约因素；在对此定性分析的基础之上,笔者又利用主成分分析法对影响该区土地利用变化的驱动因子进行了综合定量分析,提出了郧县土地利用存在的问题并探讨了实现其土地可持续发展的具体对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The researches on land use and driving forces is the frontier of geo-science, And the study of the region land exploitation by dynamic monitoring has become a significant part of it. In china, it is almost20years since we applied RS and GIS to monitor the land exploitation. The purpose of dynamic monitoring includes mainly the following two aspects:on one hand, utilizing remote sensing image to monitor the dynamic change of land exploitation. On the other hand, utilizing the data to analyze the transformation process and tendency that affect land exploitation, providing favorable basis for the anticipation of the land exploitation tendency.In this essay, The author take Yun County in Hubei province for example and use the Quantitative Research Method and the Qualitative Research Method to study the land exploitation and thrust in Yun County, and put forward a solution to the sustainable exploitation of land, which not only provides basis for the land resources exploitation of the region reasonably, but also provides reference for the other regions in our country. In the process, I utilize the Landsat TM image data about land resources satellite in2000, the second time land exploitation status quo in2008and the overall program of the national land exploitation. Besides, I combine the comprehensive factors in economy, society and environment that influence the transformation of land exploitation. Moreover, I adopt the ways of the SPSS, Mathematics Analysis, the Main component Analysis, Diverse Space-time sequence, and Markov Chain Analysis.At the beginning of this essay, the author firstly introduces the domestic and international status Quo and developing tendency of it, then illustrates the background and meaning of the research, introduces the software, mathematics method and mathematical models used in the study, and narrate the natural and social profile in Yun County on the basis of statisitical materials in different periods of it. In the end, the essay emphasizes the structure and traits of land exploitation in Yun County. From microscopic to macroscopic, from lateral to vertical, the essay, in space and time, indicates the spreading traits and developing rhythm of the land resource quantity and quality in Yun County. The results present that the transformation of land exploitation in Yun County is not only affected by the natural environment, but also influenced by social political factors, such as the quality of population, economy, urbanlization process and government policies. And the latter is gradually becoming the main factor. On the basis of it. I also use Main Component Analysis to analyize the thrust which affects the transformation of the land exploitation. And I come up with the problems of land exploitation in Yun County and discuss the ways to how to realize sustainable development.更多还原