【作者】 王晓娜；

【导师】 邓立立；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化的进程不断深入,货币区域化问题越来越引起人们的广泛关注。虽然东亚区域货币合作取得了一些成绩,但是鉴于东亚地区特殊的经济政治格局,东亚区域货币体系内至今没有产生广泛的能够充当区域货币锚角色的货币,以引导汇率的协调及共同货币区建立等更深层次的合作。而作为东亚地区两大主要货币人民币与日元的竞争与合作问题则在东亚货币体系进程中扮演了重要的角色。目前东亚区域货币合作在合作的规模、制度化约束以及区域内各经济体合作的积极性等方面还存在着很多不足。未来在区域外汇储备库的建设、汇率协调、以及推进“去美元化”战略方面还有很大的发展空间。鉴于东亚地区特殊的政治、历史、地理、文化等情况,虽然短期内东亚货币体系无法达到像欧元区那样成熟的货币一体化程度,但是东亚各经济体可以根据自身的特点推动东亚货币体系的发展。采用循序渐进的方法,先在经济发展水平相近的经济体形成联系更加紧密的次区域,再从局部到整体加强次区域之间的联系,构建区域外汇储备库,加强汇率协调,直至形成整个东亚区域全面的货币合作。当前,中国经济实力不断增强、对外开放程度日益提高,人民币在亚洲金融危机及2008年的全球金融危机中均扮演了重要的角色。随着中国在东亚国家中“市场提供者”的角色日益显现,人民币币值长期持续稳定及中国在全球金融危机中表现出的高度责任感,中国在东亚地区经济地位和政治地位日益增强,人民币的国际声望大大提高,已逐渐具备与日元抗衡的实力。相比较而言,日本受亚洲金融危机、全球金融危机以及2011年日本大地震的影响,其国际地位及区域货币地位与过去相比有明显下降,甚至出现倒退迹象。但是长期以来,日元在亚洲地区一直居于主导地位,日本也致力于借助“日元亚洲化”实现“日元国际化”,日本目前的经济发达程度仍高于中国,短期内,人民币若想成为东亚区域货币中的轴心货币还有相当大的困难。而日元受其在东亚地区特殊的政治、历史、地域问题的制约,其在亚洲发挥主导地位短期内也难以成为现实。正是基于以上各种因素的考虑,在短期内分析东亚货币体系下人民币与日元的竞争与合作问题是十分必要的。作为东亚最大的发展中国家的中国和东亚地区唯一发达国家的日本,两者之间“名义锚”的竞争在所难免。竞争无非是为了牵制对方,谋求本国区域内货币主导国的地位。但是这既不利于区域内核心驻锚的产生,又会对区域内贸易、投资产生巨大的影响。纵观当前东亚区域内各经济体发展的现状,随着相互之间依赖程度不断加深,区域内经济体之间特别是大国之间的货币合作对于稳定区域货币金融秩序、推进区域货币合作、助推非霸权货币的成功崛起来说具有十分重要的意义。从长期考虑,日元成为东亚地区锚货币存在着很多限制因素,如日元汇率的不稳定性、日本市场规模有限难以成为东亚地区“市场提供者”以及“日元国际化”失败的影响等等。相比较而言,中国在汇率的稳定性、与周边国家经济的融合程度以及“市场提供者”角色等方面较日本存在着优势,这些因素有利于人民币的区域化发展。随着人民币在东亚区域货币合作进程中地位的不断提高,如何借鉴“日元国际化”发展的经验与教训,突破自身限制因素,合理利用中国在东亚区域中的特殊优势,推动人民币在东亚货币合作中作用的显现,进而推动整个东亚货币合作的进程,从而探讨东亚区域货币合作的出路成为当前需要研究的重要课题。本文旨在分析人民币与日元的合作与竞争对东亚货币体系的影响,进而通过研究人民币在东亚货币合作中的角色转变探讨东亚货币体系的出路。本文首先提出了东亚区域货币体系的理论基础,继而探讨了分析了人民币与日元当前竞争与合作的现状与其分别对东亚货币体系的影响,再探讨了东亚区域货币合作的发展前景及人民币与日元未来各自可能取得的地位,并研究了未来中国就人民币区域化发展问题可借鉴的经验教训以及自身的发展策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of the process of economic globalization, currency regionalization has gained wide attention. Although East Asian Monetary Cooperation has achieved some success, yet in view of the special economic and political situation in East Asia, it has failed to have an currency which can act as the "Currency Anchor" and has broad implications to the whole East Asian regional monetary system to guide a deeper level of co-operation such as the coordination of exchange rate and the establishment of Common Monetary Area. As two major currencies in the area, the problem of competition or cooperation of the renminbi and the yen plays an important role in the development of monetary system in East Asia.At present, there are still many deficiencies in East Asian Monetary Cooperation, such as the scale of cooperation, institutionalized constraints and the cooperative initiative of various regional economies. In the future, there is a great space for development of the construction of regional foreign reserve poll, exchange rate coordination and promotion of the strategy of "de-dollarization". In view of the special politics, history, geography and culture of East Asia, the monetary integration degree can not be as mature as the euro area, but East Asian economies can promote the development of the monetary system on their characteristics. By adopting the step-by-step method, it can first form closer sub-regional in economies with similar level of economic development and then strengthen the link among the sub-regional from local to the whole, then build a regional reserve poll and strengthen the exchange rate, finally achieve all-round cooperation in East Asia area.At the moment, China’s economic power is continuously strengthened and the opening degree is increasing, RMB has played an important role no matter in the Asian financial crisis or in the global financial crisis in2008. China gradually began to play the role as "Market Provider" in East Asia. Meanwhile, as the value of RMB maintaining stability in a long-lasting period and a high sense of responsibility China showing in the global financial crisis, China’s economic and political status is growing in East Asia. The international reputation of yuan has greatly improved and gradually has the strength to compete with the yen. In comparison, Japan was affected by Asian financial crisis, Global Financial Crisis in2008and earthquake in2011, its international status and monetary position decreased significantly, even showed signs of reversal compared with the past. For a long time, the Japanese Yen has been in a dominant position in Asia. Japan is also committed to the idea of "Yen’s Internationalization" by "Yen Asianization". Japan’s current economic development level is still higher than China. In the short run, it’s difficult for China to become axis currency in East Asian monetary cooperation. While the yen is restricted to its specific political, historical, geographical problems in East Asia, it’s hard to become reality for yen to take a leading role in Asia.It is just based on the above variety of factors to consider, analysis of whether the two currencies choose to compete or cooperate and the impact to the whole East Asian monetary system is very necessary in the short term. As the largest developing country and the only developed country, competition for the nominal anchor between China and Japan is unavoidable. The competition between the renminbi and the yen is nothing more than to contain each other and seek the position of currency-led country in the area. But it is not conductive to produce the core currency and will have a huge impact for intra-regional trade and investment. Making a general survey of the current development status of the East Asian regional economies, with the deepening of mutual dependence, it has very important meaning for the economies within the region especially the major powers to cooperate to stabilize the regional monetary and financial order, promote regional monetary cooperation and boost the rise of non-hegemonic currency.In the long term, there are many constraints for the yen to become anchor currency, such as instability of the yen exchange rate, influence of unsuccessful internationalization of the yen. In addition, it is hard for Japan to become market provider of the area because the limitation of Japanese market size. In comparison, China has advantages over Japan in many ways, for example, the stability of exchange rate, degree of economic integration with neighboring countries, the role of market provider and so on. All these factors are conductive to the development of RMB regionalization. With increasing status of RMB in the process of East Asian regional monetary cooperation, how to learn form the experiences and lessons of yen’s internationalization and break our own constraints, making rational use of our peculiar advantages in East Asia, pushing forward RMB to playing an important role in East Asian monetary cooperation and then promoting the process of the entire East Asian monetary cooperation are so important today. It is also an important issue to find way out for the cooperation in current days.This paper focuses on the analysis of impact of the cooperation and competition between RMB and Japanese Yen to East Asian monetary system. Then explore the development model of monetary cooperation in East Asia in the future and the current situation and future trend of the cooperation and competition between RMB and Japanese Yen. Then analyze the pros and cons of the Sino-Japanese monetary cooperation and competition. Finally study what position of RMB and yen may obtained in the system and find the way out of regional development of RMB by researching the lessons we can learn and our own development strategy.更多还原