【作者】 王颖；

【导师】 程晓荣；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 智能电网是电力行业的发展方向,其安全稳定运行面临严峻的挑战。而广域测量系统(WAMS)是智能电网中重要的组成部分,是实现电力系统动态安全监控的基本有效方法,因此,WAMS通信网的安全可靠性问题日益突出。风险评估作为安全工作的基础,是制定可靠的安全防护措施的前提,对提高WAMS通信网的安全性具有重要意义。本文研究了风险评估的相关理论以及目前广泛采用的风险评估方法,并对WAMS通信网的体系结构和安全要求进行了分析,在此基础上,通过对WAMS通信网的风险分析及风险因素的识别,建立了WAMS通信网风险评估的指标体系。将模糊层次分析法和D-S证据理论进行综合运用,设计构建了广域测量系统通信网风险评估量化模型。将三角模糊理论引入到层次分析法中,采用模糊层次分析法,确定风险评估指标体系中各个指标的权重,克服了传统层次分析法的缺点和不足,降低了专家评判的主观性和不确定性。采用D-S证据理论对指标风险因素由下至上进行融合,得出上层风险因素的量化结果,充分考虑风险因素的不确定性和评估中专家主观判断所导致的不确定性和模糊性对评估结果的影响,最终确定目标系统的风险值及风险等级。最后通过实例对该风险评估量化模型进行了论证,并设计实现了WAMS通信网的风险评估系统原型,实现了指标体系建立、权重值确定、证据合成、风险值计算等功能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Smart Grid is the direction of power industry’s development, the safety and stability of Smart Grid operation is facing sever challenges. Wide Area Measurement System(WAMS) is an essential part of Smart Grid, what’s more,is also a basic effective measurement to monitor the power system dynamic security,therefore, the safety reliability problem of WAMS communication network becomes increasingly prominent. As the foundation of keeping safe,risk assessment is the premise of making trustworthy safety protective measures and has important meaning to improve the security of WAMS communication network.This paper studies some theory relating to risk assessment and the risk assessment methods which are widely used at present, in addition, analysing WAMS communication network architecture and security requirements. On this basis, this paper establishes WAMS communication network risk assessment index system via analysing the risk and recognizing the risk factors of WAMS communication network.This paper designs and builds WASM communication network risk assessment quantitative model by the integrated use of Fuzzy APH and D_S evidence theory. Using Fussy APH which brings Triangular Fuzzy Theory in APH to determine each index’s weight in risk assessment index system can not only overcome the shortcoming and lackness of the traditional APH, but also lower the subjectivity and uncertainty of experts’judgement. Using D_S evidence theory to merge index risk factors together from down to up turns out the quantitative result of superstratum risk factor. This method considers the uncertainty of risk factors as well as uncertainty and ambiguity of experts subjective judge in the process of assessing fully, finally get the value-at-risk and risk level of goal system.At last, this paper demonstrates this risk assessment quantitative model through a living example, designs and achieves the prototype of WAMS communication network risk assessment system which has the function such as building index system, ensuring the weight of each index, evidence fusion, calculating value-at-risk and so on.更多还原