2010~2011年上海住宅市场调控中房产税、限购令等政策的若干思考

【作者】 张慧；

【导师】 谢百三；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融工程管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 本文旨在研究上海市2010～2011年的房地产宏观调控政策中的房产税和限购令政策对上海住宅市场的影响,以及对于上海住宅价格上涨过快、中低收入居民住房困难等问题的个人思考与政策建议。文章对上海住宅价格的泡沫及危害做了分析,论述了调控政策的必要性,并与全国住宅价格情况进行对比,得出地域发展不均衡和收入分配不平衡是造成上海住宅问题的深层次因素。通过对上海住宅价格上涨原因的分析,得到调控政策的切入点,本文认为住宅市场供不应求的基本现状和宽松的货币政策环境是造成住宅价格上涨过快的原因。其中,常住人口、土地价格、货币供应、利率等因素对上海住宅价格影响显著。房产税是解决住宅市场问题的重要手段,对供需和收入分配都能起到一定的作用,但目前试点阶段存在很多问题,比如税种性质存在争议、征收范围不涉及存量、对刚性需求和投机需求区分度不够,导致住宅租赁市场价格上涨过快等,这些问题使得调控效果不尽如人意。房产税能否起到真正的调控作用,取决于政府能否进一步对其立法、征收过程等诸多方面进行改进和完善。住宅限购令政策短期内可以对控制投机性需求起到立竿见影的效果,但长期来看,它没有解决供需关系和货币政策环境的根本问题,违背了经济运行规律,一方面造成了刚性需求向高端化发展,投资需求流向消费等领域,抬高了消费者价格指数,另一方面由于市场低迷,供给进一步下降,加剧了供需失衡,并拖累了GDP增速与几十个相关产业。由此,本文认为,长期来看限购令政策无效,被抑制的需求一旦释放必将引起市场的反弹。解决上海住宅问题的根本方法在于地域间均衡发展,减轻上海的人口和资源压力；改变土地财政的格局,增加土地供应,降低土地价格；稳定货币供应,利率市场化；提高居民收入在总收入中的比重；缩小贫富差距；完善房地产税收制度,减少开发环节税收力度,增加保有环节税收力度；拓宽投资渠道等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper aims to research the influence of Shanghai real estate control policies in real estate tax and the purchase limits on the Shanghai residential market during2010and2011, as well as the solutions and suggestions of Shanghai residential market problem.Through Shanghai housing price bubble analysis and comparison with the national housing price, we conclude that the geographical imbalanced development and unfair distribution of income are deep factors which caused the housing problem in Shanghai.Through the analysis of the causes of Shanghai’s fast increasing housing prices, the basic demand and supply status of the residential market and easy monetary policy environment caused housing prices rose too fast. Among them, the resident population, land prices, money supply, interest rates and other factors on the Shanghai housing prices was significant.The property tax is an important means to solve the problem of the residential market, and can play a role on supply, demand and income distribution. But in the pilot phase there are many problems, such as taxes nature exists a dispute, the scope of the collection does not involve stock of housing, not enough differentiation between the rigid demand and speculative demand, leading to the residential rental market prices rose too fast, resulting in the regulation effect is not ideal. Property taxes can play a real role in the regulation depends on the Government’s ability to further its legislation, the collection process, and many other aspects to improve and perfect.Purchase limits can play an immediate effect on the control speculative demand in the short term, but in the long run, it does not solve the fundamental problem of supply and demand and easy monetary policy environment. It is contrary to the laws of economic operation. On the one hand, it caused the rigid demand high-end development, investment demand flowing toward consumption and other areas, raising the consumer price index. On the other hand, the market downturn and the supply further decline exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand, dragging on GDP growth, and dozens of related industries. As a result, the paper argues that in the long run the purchase limits policy is invalid and would lead to a rebound in the market. The fundamental approach to solve the housing problem in Shanghai is the balanced development between the geographical, to reduce the Shanghai population and resource pressures; to change the pattern of land finance, to increase land supply to lower the price of land; stable money supply, market-oriented interest rate; increasing the proportion of household income in total income, narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor; improve the real estate tax system,; widen the investment channels, increase government spending.更多还原