李明博政府实用主义对朝政策研究

【作者】 吴雪；

【导师】 黄河；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际关系， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 韩国是解决朝鲜半岛问题的重要主体,韩国政府的对朝政策直接影响着韩朝关系及半岛局势的发展。韩国现任李明博政府于2008年上台后,调整了此前金大中政府及卢武铉政府时期的对朝包容的政策基调,转而采取实用主义的政策基调,并在此基础上,以“相互主义”为原则,制定了“共存与共荣”的对朝政策,以及“无核、开放、3000”的政策手段。李明博政府的对朝政策是韩国政府对朝政策的又一次转折与断裂,其背后不仅有李明博总统个人因素的影响,更有韩国国内保守政治势力掌权、“南南冲突”深化及国民舆论对朝保守化倾向加剧的作用；另外,韩朝双方的力量对比以及韩国对于朝鲜具有的威胁程度的认识均直接影响着本届政府对朝政策的选择；以美国因素为中心的朝鲜半岛外部因素则更多发挥着结构性作用,而美国因素对于李明博政府的对朝政策而言有着更为特殊的关键性作用。韩国将在2012年进行总统大选,李明博政府的任期即将结束。回顾李明博政府实行基于实用主义政策基调的对朝政策后韩朝关系及半岛局势发生的变化,其对往届政府对朝政策的调整虽然具有必然性、必要性与合理性,却由于其实用主义政策基调的根本问题,以及具体对朝政策本身的缺陷和实施行动上的疏漏,而未能获得预期中的实际效果。事实上,李明博政府正在做出更多的外交努力,以期在其任期即将结束之际,缓和韩朝关系,稳定半岛局势。当然,鉴于李明博政府在卸任前改变实用主义政策基调的可能性微乎其微,实用主义的政策基调对于李明博政府的具体对朝政策所具有的规范作用会持续存在,无论李明博政府如何就对朝具体接触方法与手段进行灵活调整,政府始终会秉承实用的态度,坚持“相互主义”原则,在保持总体强硬的同时略带缓和。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the main actor to solve the problem of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea’s policy toward DPRK has a direct impact on the development of ROK-DPRK relations and the situation on the peninsula. Incumbent Lee Myung-Bak administration adjusted the inclusive policy paradigm of previous Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-Hyun to the pragmatic one after its debut in2008. The government made the "co-existence and common prosperity" policy toward DPRK and set "nuclear-free, open,3000" as its policy means on the basis of "reciprocity" principles. Lee’s policy is the turning point and fracture of South Korean government’s policy toward DPRK since Kim Dae-Jung, which is influenced not only by the individual factor of President Lee Myung-Bak, but also by the conservative political forces in power,"South-South conflict" and conservative national public opinions inside South Korea. In addition, the balance of power between the two Koreas and South Korea’s understanding of North Korea’s threat level also have direct impact on the choice of the current government while external factors centering on the U.S. factor have the structural influence. Furthermore, U.S. plays a more special key role for Lee’s government’s policy toward DPRK. Lee Myung-Bak administration’s term is coming to an end after the2012presidential election. A review of the change of ROK-DPRK relations and the situation on the peninsula under Lee’s pragmatic policy toward DPRK proved the inevitability, necessity and reasonableness of the policy. However, Lee’s policy toward DPRK failed to obtain the expected effect because of the fundamental problem of pragmatism policy paradigm, the flaws of the specific policy and its implementation. In fact, Lee Myung-Bak government is to make more diplomatic efforts in order to ease ROK-DPRK relations and stabilize the situation on the peninsula before his term of office draws to a close. Considering that it is extremely unlikely for Lee Myung-Bak administration to change the pragmatism policy paradigm, the regulatory role of the pragmatism paradigm on its specific policy toward DPRK will continue to exist. The government will always adhere to the practical attitude and the "reciprocity" principle, and maintain a slight easing tone in the overall tough one regardless of how Lee Myung-Bak administration flexibly adjusts the specific methods and means against DPRK.更多还原