【作者】 张杰；

【导师】 季建华；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在前人对单供应商单零售商供应链的牛鞭效应研究基础上，将需求端的单零售商结构拓展为存在需求相关性的两零售商结构进行进一步研究。考虑到采用集中库存管理时，供应商将尤其关注整个零售环节的运营表现，本文通过建模揭示该供应链中零售环节牛鞭效应的形成机理，提炼出两零售商情形下影响零售环节牛鞭效应的主要因素并加以分析，从中总结出具有价值的管理意义，为相关的供应链成员尤其是供应商理解及应对牛鞭效应提供参考。论文在单供应商两零售商的供应链结构中，讨论了当两零售商之间存在需求相关性的时候，供应商所面对的零售环节牛鞭效应会相应发生怎样的变化，解析了零售环节牛鞭效应的形成机理，揭示了零售环节牛鞭效应的组成结构及影响因素。论文在明确了供应商所面对的零售环节牛鞭效应之后，探讨了零售环节牛鞭效应与两个零售商的牛鞭效应之间的关系，即比较各零售商牛鞭效应对零售环节牛鞭效应的“贡献”大小，并指出决定该“贡献”大小的因素。论文还分析了零售环节牛鞭效应中所涉及的各因素对该牛鞭效应的影响效果。首先，分析了在不同的参数水平下，零售商之间的需求相关性对零售环节牛鞭效应的影响方向及该影响的显著性。同时，分析了各零售商的提前期、移动平均预测法的预测周期等因素对零售环节牛鞭效应的直接影响及间接影响，并对二者的影响效果进行了比较。针对各因素的影响效果，本文相应地给出了管理上的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on former research on single-supplier-single-supplier supply chain’sbullwhip effect, this paper extends the single-retailer structure into two-retailerstructure for further study. Considering the supplier will focus on performance of thewhole retailer stage when the supplier use the centralized inventory management, thepaper discloses the forming mechanism and main causes of retailer stage’s bullwhipeffect in such supply chains. Through analysis the paper summarizes relatedmanagement meanings which are helpful for supply chain members, especiallysuppliers, to better understand and control bullwhip effect.The paper discusses the effect of demand correlation between the two retailers onthe bullwhip effect of retailer stage by analyzing the forming mechanism and maincauses of retailer stage’s bullwhip effect.After determine the bullwhip effect of retailer stage, the paper discusses therelation between each retailer’s bullwhip effect and retailer stage’s bullwhip effect bycomparing the contribution of each retailer’s bullwhip effect into the retailer stage’s.In addition, the paper analyzes the causes related with bullwhip effect, includingretailers’ demand correlation, retailers’ lead time, forecasting period of movingaverage method, etc. The paper analyzes the effect direction and degree of retailers’demand correlation on bullwhip effect. At the same time, the paper analyzes the effectof lead time and forecasting period on bullwhip effect, and compares these two factors.At last, the paper provides several specific management advises.更多还原