产业结构与就业结构变动的关系研究

【作者】 王晖；

【导师】 王兆萍；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 合理的产业结构和就业结构是国民经济健康发展的前提。为此,国家必须确定合适的产业发展政策,以实现产业结构的合理化。同时,产业结构的调整会带来就业结构的变动,合理的产业结构会促使就业结构朝健康的方向发展,不合理的产业结构会造成就业结构失衡。另一方面,就业结构自身有相对独立的特性,它会反作用于产业结构,进而在一定程度上决定着经济结构的发展。因此,合理的就业政策也显得十分必要。而制定合理有效的产业结构和就业结构政策就需要了解产业结构和就业结构变动之间的关系。本文就以促进产业结构和就业结构协调发展为目的,对我国的产业结构和就业结构变动之间的关系进行了如下研究：第一,对我国改革开放以来产业结构与就业结构的演变进行了认真的分析,从产业结构变动的稳定性、产业结构与就业结构变动的相关性、产业结构和就业结构的偏离度以及就业弹性和比较劳动生产率等多个角度阐述我国产业结构和就业结构变动的特点。第二,从影响产业结构与就业结构变动的因素入手,阐明了两者之间相互作用的过程,提出了两者相互影响的关系机制。接着,采用神经网络对我国产业结构变动对就业结构的影响进行了仿真分析,分析结果充分肯定了本文对二者之间相互影响机制的分析。第三,从投入产出效率的角度,通过建立数据包络模型,对我国的产业结构变动和就业结构变动之间相互影响的程度进行了深入分析,指出了我国产业结构变动和就业结构变动相互影响的大小及趋势。最后,采用误差修正模型考察了产业结构变动对长期和短期失业率的影响。结果表明：首先,我国剩余劳动力向第三产业转移的速度过缓,第三产业对剩余劳动力的吸纳能力还没有得到很好的发挥。因此应该注意对第三产业内部结构进行调整,积极发展第三产业。同时,第二产业对剩余劳动力的吸纳还具备很大的潜力,应该适度增加第二产业中轻工业的比重。其次,从现有的数据来看,第二产业的变动会造成失业率上升,第三产业变动则会造成失业率下降。因此,政府在制定产业政策时要注意要协调和平衡二、三产业。此外,在产业结构受到外部冲击发生变动造成失业率变化后,失业率恢复到长期均衡水平需要5年左右的时间。最后,就业结构变动对我国产业结构的影响日趋显著,政府应该重视在就业结构方面的指导和调整。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rational industrial structure and employment structure is one of precedent conditions for the healthy development of the national economy. Therefore, in order to improve the process of industrial structure rationalisation, several suitable policies of industrial development must be formulated by government. Meanwhile, the adjustment of industrial structure must influence the fluctuation of employment structure, in order to achieve the industry the rationalization of the structure. A reasonable industrial structure will lead the employment structure to a healthy developmental direction, unreasonable industrial structure will cause imbalance in the structure of employment. On the other hand, the employment structure itself has a relative independence; it will be counterproductive in the industrial structure. Thus, rational policies of employment are crucial important. However, to develop reasonable and effective policies of industrial structure and employment structure requires a deep understanding of the relationship between changes in industrial structure and the changes in employment structure. In order to promote the coordinated development of the industrial structure and employment structure, this paper mainly carries out research in the following five areas:First, a detailed analysis of the evolution process of industrial structure and employment structure since the reform and opening up is given at first, and then, such as structural deviation coefficient, coefficient matrix and employment elasticity are used for validating the characteristics of the changes in China’s industrial structure and employment structure. Second, start from the analysis of factors that influencing the changes in industrial structure and employment structure; this paper clarifies the process of interaction between the two, and brings forward the mechanisms of this kind of influence. Then, by using a neural network model, this paper simulated the process of China’s industrial structure changes impacting on the employment structure, and the result confirmed the interaction mechanism between the change in industrial structure and the change employment structure. Third, from the input-output efficiency point of view, this paper established a model through data envelopment analysis, and then analyzed the size and trend of the interaction between China’s industrial structure changes and employment structure changes by the model. Finally, examine the impact of changes in industrial structure on the long-term and short-term unemployment rate via the error correction model.The results showed that:First, the transfer speed of surplus labor from agriculture industry to service industry in China’s is too slow. The labor absorptive capacity of service industry is not strong enough. In order to improve the development of service industry, we must focus on adjusting the internal structure of the service industry. The same time, the labor absorptive capacity of the secondary industry is also apparent. We should focus on the development of light industry. Second, changes in the secondary industry will result in rising of unemployment rate; changes in the service industry will result in falling unemployment rate. At the same time, after a change of unemployment rate caused by shifting of industrial structure which is due to extern-shock, the unemployment rate need more than5years to return to its long-term level. Finally, changes in employment structure is playing an increasingly and significant role in China’s industrial structure. Thus, the Government should pay attention to the guidance and adjustments in the structure of employment.更多还原