我国电信业的发展及其对经济的影响

【作者】 刘霞；

【导师】 尹清非；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 数量经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代以来,中国电信产业发展举世瞩目,截至2010年底固定电话和移动电话用户总数突破11亿。作为国民经济的基础产业,我国电信业在时间和空间方面的发展怎样,以及其对经济的影响又怎样,本文主要对这两个方面进行量化分析。首先,进行纵向分析,对我国电信业2003年到2010年8年间的发展情况进行因子分析,并对各年份进行排序。结果显示,综合得分和因子一(移话因子)得分都逐年增大,说明随年份呈现稳健向上发展的趋势,总体水平在不断提高。但因子二(固话因子)得分从2008年开始情况出现反常,出现下降趋势。一方面可能受2008年金融危机的影响,业务量有所波动,另一方面因为近些年移动电话和互联网的发展迅猛,抢占了市场,使固话市场受到严重冲击。接着,进行横向分析,对我国31个省市2010年的年度数据进行因子分析并对各省市进行排序,综合评分最高的是广东省、江苏省、浙江省,这三个省地处东南沿海经济发达地区,电信需求大,电信业综合实力非常强。排名相对靠后的三个省市分别为青海、宁夏、西藏。北京、上海、天津三省市因子二(服务水平因子)的得分非常高,居于前三位,说明这三个地方的电信服务水平非常高。最后,运用面板数据模型来研究我国各省市电信业对经济的影响。结果表明我国各省市电信业与经济发展之间都存在协整关系,并且都是显著正相关,电信业务量的增加都会带动GDP的增加,但不同的省市又存在差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the1990s, the development of China’s telecom industry is remarkable all over the world, the total number of fixed telephone and mobile phone users exceeded1.1billion as of the end of2010. As the basic industry of national economy, how is China’s telecommunications industry in the development of time and space, and what its impact on the economy is? This paper talks about these two aspects trough quantitative analysis.First of all, we conduct a longitudinal analysis. From the factor analysis on the development of China’s telecommunications industry of eight years from2003to2010, we get the factor scores and sort the scores. Factor scores and the first factor score is increasing year by year, showing steady upward trend and the overall level continuous improvement. From the2008, the trend of the second factor (fixed telephone factor) is declining unusually. Because of the financial crisis in2008, the volume of business has fluctuated, in addition, because of the rapid development of mobile phones and the internet, the fixed telephone market has been badly hit in recent years.Then, we conduct a Horizontal analysis, from the factor analysis of China’s31provinces and cities in the year2010,we know that provinces with the highest overall score are Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are located at the southeast coastal areas and the economic is developed.Telecommunications is great demanded in this provinces, and the comprehensive strength of telecommunications industry is very strong. The relative ranking of the provinces are Qinghai, Ningxia, Tibet, which are located in the western inland areas. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin has high scores of the second factor (level of service factor), which is ranked in the first three. It implies that level of telecommunications services in these three places is very high.Finally, through the panel data analysis, we study the impact of the telecommunications industry on the economic on the various provinces and municipalities in China. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the telecommunications industry and economic development growth, and with a significantly positively relationship. The growth of telecommunications business will improve GDP,and there are differences in different provinces.更多还原