【作者】 刘翠霞；

【导师】 谷祖莎；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 随着低碳经济时代的来临,山东省的减排压力也越来越大,特别是出口贸易,山东省出口产品生产大多是采用高能耗、高投入、低产出的高碳经济模式,形成对外贸易和低碳经济的发展失衡。在这种背景下,如何促进对外贸易与低碳经济的协同发展成为关键问题。围绕这个问题,本文通过理论研究和实证研究相结合的方法对两者的协调性进行系统的分析。在理论上,把生态要素引入对外贸易理论中,通过把生态要素引入比较优势模型、H-O-V模型,得出生态要素影响一国的比较优势,拓展罗伯津斯基定理分析劳动、资本要素供给发生变化对生态密集型产品生产出口的影响。其次,在继承前人研究的基础上,通过分析对外贸易影响低碳经济的基本途径和发展低碳经济影响对外贸易的基本途径全面剖析对外贸易与低碳经济协同发展的关系。在实证上,本文利用因素分解法测算了山东省1984-2010年的碳排放量。在此基础上,实证研究了对外贸易和碳排放之间的关系。结果表明：碳排放与能源消费、对外贸易三者之间存在长期的协整关系,长期内,能源消费是影响碳排放的主要因素,对外贸易次之。其次,由前文实证研究得出的结论可知山东省对外贸易与低碳经济发展之间存在紧密联系,对外贸易促进了山东省碳排放的增加,实现对外贸易与低碳经济协同发展具有重要的现实意义,因此本文将协调度应用到对外贸易与低碳经济系统中，通过建立协调发展评价模型对山东省对外贸易与低碳经济的协同发展情况进行评价研究,以测度山东省对外贸易与低碳经济的协同发展程度。可知山东省目前的对外贸易与低碳经济协同发展水平并不高,处于低水平协调阶段,属于由过渡区间的勉强协调发展型向初级协调发展型过渡,有待于进一步提高。在对全文总结的基础上,本文认为要从优化生产和贸易模式、促进产业升级、建构完善的低碳税收体系三个方面促进山东省对外贸易与低碳经济的协同发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the era of low-carbon economy, the pressure to reduce emissions in Shandong province is growing, especially the export trade. Export production in Shandong province use the high-carbon economic model with high-energy, high-input, low-output to lead to the imbalance of foreign trade and the development of low-carbon economy. In this context, it becomes a key issue that how to promote the coordination development between the two. Around this problem, the paper analyzes the coordination of foreign trade and low-carbon economy by combining theoretical and empirical research.In theory, the paper introduces Ecological elements into the foreign trade theory. The paper derived the conclusion that Ecological factor affect a country’s comparative advantage by introducing Ecological elements into the model of comparative advantage and H-O-V model. The paper analyze the change of the production and export of eco-intensive products from the supply change of the labor and capital factor by expanding Rybczynski Theorem. Next, the paper performs a comprehensive analysis of the relationship of the coordination development between foreign trade and low-carbon economy by analyzing the mutual influence way between foreign trade and low carbon economy on the basis of previous studies.In the empirical, the paper uses factor decomposition method to measure carbon emissions in Shandong Province from1984to2010. On this basis, the paper analyzes the relationship between foreign trade and carbon emissions by empirical studies.The results showed that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and foreign trade. In the long term, energy consumption is the main factors affecting the carbon emissions and foreign trade following by. Secondly, the conclusions of the previously empirical research show that there is the close contact between the foreign trade and the development of low-carbon economy in Shandong Province. The foreign trade promotes the increase of carbon emissions in Shandong Province. The collaborative development between the foreign trade and the low-carbon economy has important practical significance. Therefore, the thesis introduce Coordination degree into the system of foreign trade and low-carbon economy to establish a coordinated development evaluation model to research the collaborative development of the foreign trade and low-carbon economy and measure the degree of collaborative development between the foreign trade and low-carbon economy in Shandong province. As a result, the level of the collaborative development of foreign trade and low-carbon economy in Shandong Province is not high and transfer from the barely coordination of development to the primary coordination of development to be further improved.On the basis of the summary of the full paper, this paper proposes that we should promote the coordinated development between the foreign trade and low-carbon economy by the optimization of production and trade patterns, industrial upgrading and construction of the tax system of low-carbon in Shandong Province.更多还原