【作者】 张俊；

【导师】 何玉成；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 企业管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 从2000年开始中国乳品行业经历了飞速发展,2008年发生的“三聚氰胺”事件使乳品行业的发展减速,如今正在进入调整期。经过对中国乳品行业进行生命周期分析后发现：乳品消费仍以液态奶为主；近两年消费市场开始恢复增长；乳品行业的平均利润水平还维持在较高水平等等。根据这些市场特征可以判断中国乳品行业仍处于成长阶段。基于对中国乳品行业所处阶段的判断,本文通过三次指数平滑法对乳品行业未来五年的总产量与消费量进行预测,预计在2012年中国奶类总产量将超过4000万吨。由于我国乳品消费滞后于乳品生产,在未来五年内,乳品市场可能会出现供过于求的局面,行业内竞争会加剧。通过对乳品企业面临的五种力量的分析,判断出乳品企业外部环境中存在的机会与威胁：行业内现有的竞争强度比较高,市场集中度一直呈上升趋势；随着超大仓储的发展,销售商的市场控制力正逐步加强,将威胁企业的讨价还价能力；在供应商中,原奶供应商由于生产分散,不具备讨价还价能力,而材料、设备供应商处于垄断地位,压缩了乳品企业的利润空间；对于潜在进入者而言,现存企业具备相对成本优势和品牌优势,加上乳品行业准入条件的提高,进入壁垒较高；替代性产品中,豆奶产品正发展得如火如荼,但就目前实力完全替代乳品可能性不大。考虑到外资进入中国乳品行业的影响,本文从整个乳品产业链的各个环节分析了中国乳品企业的竞争力情况：育种环节,外资具备强大的技术和资金优势,我国育种企业竞争压力巨大；牧草环节,我国牧草加工质量不高,产品结构存在问题,高端设备依赖进口,牧草进口量也在逐年攀升；乳品加工环节,生产设备和包装材料被外资垄断,产品市场上只有液态奶具备竞争优势,奶粉高端市场被外资统治。随后,本文对占据中国乳品市场半壁江山的三家大型乳品企业进行了竞争优势分析,通过因素分析法发现三家乳品企业之间盈利能力的差距主要来自资本结构和运营效率。然后通过杜邦等式对三家乳品企业分别进行了赢利能力分析、营运能力分析、资本结构分析。三大乳品企业中赢利能力最强的是伊利集团,营运能力最强的是蒙牛集团,在资本结构分析中发现,伊利和光明资产负债率都很高,蒙牛则低很多,这可能跟管理层的风险态度和三家企业的资产背景有关。最后,本文结合前面的分析,运用SWOT框架来选择乳品企业不同层次的企业战略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since2000, the dairy products enterprise in China has experienced a rapid development period. However, the "Melamine" event happened in2008has slowed down the developing speed of the whole industry and now the industry has come to the adjustment period. After analyzing the life cycle of the dairy products enterprise in China, the fact is that Liquid Milk still accounts for a major part of the dairy consumption. In past two years, the market consuming capacity begins to resume and the average revenue of the dairy industry still maintain at a relatively high level. According to the characteristics of the market we can estimate that the dairy industry is still at the growth stage. Based on the estimation of the stage China’s dairy industry in, this article forecasts the dairy industry production and consumption for the next five years through the cubic exponential smoothing method and indicates that in2012China’s dairy output will reach40million tons. Since the domestic dairy consumption lags behind the domestic dairy production, the dairy market may appear a situation of supply glut and the competition in this industry will be fiercer in the next five years.Through the analysis of the five forces that the dairy enterprise is facing, it is estimated that opportunities and threats exist in the external environment of the dairy enterprise:The intensity of the existing competition in the industry is quite fierce. Market concentration rate has been on the rise all the time. With the development of large storage, the market control of sellers is gradually strengthened step by step and this will threat bargaining ability of enterprises. As to the suppliers, due to the dispersed manufacturing, raw milk suppliers have no bargaining ability. Since the material and equipment suppliers have a monopoly position, the profit space of dairy enterprises has been compressed. For the potential entrants, the existing enterprises have relative cost advantage and brand advantage, in addition, the requirements for market access of the dairy industry has improved, so the entry barrier is relatively high; among the alternative products, soy milk products are developing rapidly. However, considering the present situation, it is unlikely to happen that soy milk products replace dairy products.Considering the influence of foreign capital entering into China’s dairy industry, this article f has analyzed the competitiveness of China’s dairy enterprise through every production link of the dairy industry chain:Breeding link, while foreign enterprises have powerful advantage in technology and capital, domestic breeding enterprises are under strong competitive pressure; Forage grass link, the existing problems include low quality of grass processing, product structure problems, high-end equipments dependence on imports and annually increasing forage imports; Dairy processing link, the production equipment and packing materials are monopolized by foreign enterprises, only liquid milk have the competitive advantage in the market and high-end milk powder market is occupied by foreign enterprises.Then, this article sets a competitive advantage analysis on three large dairy enterprises which now totally occupy half of China’s dairy market share. Via the factor analysis method it is found that the profitability differences between three dairy enterprises are mainly in capital structure and operating efficiency. Then, profitability analysis, operation ability analysis and capital structure analysis have been carried out respectively of three dairy enterprises via the Dupond equality. Yi Li has the strongest profitability and Meng Niu has the strongest operation ability of the three diary enterprises. In the capital structure analysis, it is found that, asset-liability ratios of Yi Li and Guang Ming are very high, while Meng Niu’s is much lower. This may be related to the attitude to risk management and assets backgrounds of the three enterprises.Finally, based on all the analysis above, choose enterprise strategies of different levels based on SWOT analysis frame.更多还原