基于预测未来现金流的房地产行业盈余质量研究

【作者】 张燕；

【导师】 尤华；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 会计学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 本文针对利用盈余进行决策时存在的现实问题,从盈余预测未来现金流量的角度入手对盈余质量进行了研究,对比了总括盈余和分解后盈余项目对未来现金流的不同预测能力,得出基于预测未来现金流的盈余质量研究的结论并提出相关建议。首先,根据本文的研究思路和研究需要,从会计盈余的信息含量、盈余管理、盈余质量与新会计准则以及盈余质量特征等四个方面进行了相关文献介绍,并结合本文研究方向以及中国国情进行了评价；其次,对盈余、盈余质量等相关概念进行了界定,本文所指盈余为会计盈余,本文结合相关理论和报表结构对盈余进行了分解,同时将盈余质量限定于盈余的现金保障能力这一方面；第三,从“功能锁定”和“低盈余质量公司驱逐高盈余质量公司”两个角度,提出盈余质量在决策中存在的问题,为后续研究以及建议部分做铺垫；第四,提出假设,针对横向分解的预测能力研究和纵向分解的预测能力研究,在DKW理论模型和总括盈余以及分解后的盈余项目等信息的基础上,分别提出基于预测未来现金流的盈余质量研究的2组共4个检验模型,对模型进行回归,并在对每组模型回归结果进行对比分析的基础上得出本文的研究结论；最后,本文根据实证结论,提出了纵向分解、横向分解以及综合对比的结果分析,发现对盈余信息进行分解后,模型的解释力度较之分解前有所提高,证实了假设的判断。最后,本文分别针对房地产企业提高盈余质量和投资者区分不同盈余质量公司等方面提出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we studied the earnings quality from the aspect of future cash flow based on the problem in decision-making. We compared the different predictive ability of the overall earnings and the constituent part after the decomposing of the overall earnings by empirical methods. At last, we got the conclusions and the relevant suggestions about the earnings quality basing on the future cash flow.Firstly, according to the research ideas and needs of this article, we reviewed the relevant literature from the following four aspects:the information content of accounting earnings, earnings management, earnings quality under new accounting standards and the characteristics of earnings quality. Then combined with the direction of this study as well as China’s national conditions, we made our evaluation. Secondly, we defined the concept of earnings and earnings quality in our article. Earnings refer to the accounting earnings and earnings quality is limited to the aspect of capabilities in supporting the future cash flow. Then we decomposed the overall earnings into constituent part on the basis of relevant theory and the structure of financial report. Thirdly, from the "functional fixation" and the "company with low earnings quality expels company with high earnings quality", we presented the problems of earnings quality in the decision-making. These are the basis of the follow-up study and our suggestions. Fourthly, we proposed two assumptions and four models to study the predictive capability of overall earnings and the constituent part of the overall earnings in predicting the future cash flow. Finally, based on the empirical findings, we made corresponding analysis from the horizontal decomposition, vertical decomposition and comprehensive comparison. We gave advice respectively to the real estate enterprises on improving earnings quality and investors on distinguishing companies with different earnings quality.更多还原