【作者】 张丹；

【导师】 朱冬梅；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着城市化进程中由人口急剧增加带来的环境恶化,人口拥挤现象的产生,可持续发展日益受到重视,城市经济、资源能承载的人口规模也成为城市发展中思考的重大议题。本文则是立足于城市可持续发展背景之下,选取人口、经济、资源三大系统作为研究对象,从宏观角度对成都市地区的经济适度人口规模、资源适度人口规模及综合适度人口规模进行实证研究,并依据计算结果为成都市未来人口发展战略提出相应的政策建议。本文结合了人口学、经济学、环境学多学科的相关知识,采取了文献分析法、实证分析法、比较分析法、描述分析法等,对成都市适度人口规模进行了研究,研究结果显示：第一,从经济、资源及综合适度人口规模计算结果看,2001-2009年间,成都市经济人口承载力高于全国平均水平,其适度人口规模高于现实人口规模；资源人口承载力低于全国平均水平,适度人口规模明显偏低,9年间一直出现高度超载,超载人数从2001年的655.65万人升至2009年的781.54万人,资源承载压力极大；综合适度人口规模受资源适度人口规模影响较大,亦处于人口超载状况。第二,从三项经济指标约束下的适度人口规模来看,成都市经济总量增长速度及工业化进程高于全国平均水平,两项指标下的成都市人口承载空间仍有富余,但富余空间呈下降趋势,从就业现状来看,成都市就业状况曾一度低于全国平均水平,但逐渐有所改善,就业指标下的城市人口承载规模不仅逐渐超过了现实人口规模,并且富余人口空间呈上升趋势。第三,从两项资源指标约束下的适度人口规模来看,成都市耕地资源及水资源约束下的适度人口规模远远低于实际人口规模,水资源约束下超载人口为本文选取的五项指标之最,2009年达789.52万人,耕地资源超载人口也紧随其后,2009年亦高至772.67万人。针对上述结果,本文提出了成都市未来人口发展战略。第一,保持经济人口承载能力；第二,提升资源人口承载能力；第三,坚持人口、经济及资源的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 With city population increasing rapidly during urbanization process which resulted in environmental degradation, people payed more attention to the sustainable development.and the moderate population upon city economy and resources also became a major concerning issue.Based on the respect of sustailable development,the article chose three systems including population,economy and resources as study objects,and analyzed economic moderate population, resource moderate population and comprehensive moderate population of Chengdu from the macro point.at last,it put forward some policy recommendations for the future popution development strategy of Chengdu according to the research results.The article combined multi-disciplinary knowledge including demography, heconomics, environmental studies and so on, analyzed moderate population scale of Chengdu through applying variaty methods such as literature analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis, descriptive analysis etc. The results showed that:First, from the results of economy moderate population, resource moderate population and comprehensive moderate population, during2001to2009, Chengdu Economic population supporting capacity was higher than the national average, and moderate population was higher than the actual population scale; resource population supporting capacity was lower than the national average, and resource moderate population scale was very low, whose overloaded population scale kept a high level in the last nine years from655.65ten thousand in2001rising to781,54ten thousand in2009,so resource supporting capacity bored a lot of pressure; comprehensive moderate population was in overload conditions because of being affected by resources.Second, from the results of moderate population scale based on three economic indicators,we got that Chengdu’s economic growth and industrialization process was higher than the national average, and there was still surplus population supporting space upon the two indicators, but the surplus space was being decreased gradually; the employment situation in Chengdu was not so good as the national average, but has improved gradually.Upon the employment indicator, the urban population supporting scale has exceeded the actual population,and the surplus space was rising year by year.Third, from the results of moderate population scale based on two resource indicators,we got that Chengdu’s moderate population scale was much lower than the actual population upon the land and water resources.Among the five indicators,water resource overloaded the most population,up to789.52ten thousand in2006.the second one was land resource,also up to772.67ten thousand in2009.In response to the above results.the article proposed future population development strategy of Chengdu. First, to maintain economic population supporting capacity; Second, to enhance the resource supporting capacity; Third, adhere to the coordinated development of population, economy and resources.更多还原