【作者】 周杨；

【导师】 宋吉荣；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 建筑与土木， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国加入WTO后,越来越多的中国企业加入到国际工程项目承包的大浪潮中,面对陌生的环境,不少企业由于对风险的准备不足,蒙受了不小的损失,也为以后的工程承包积累了丰富的经验。在“走出去”的背景下,中国企业如何在激烈的国际竞争中增强自己的实力,保障自身企业的利益,做好风险管理工作显得尤为关键。而且,传统的国际工程项目承包方式正在向“设计—采购—施工”方式转变,这种承包模式同时也给承包商带来了巨大的风险。国际工程项目建设是一项复杂的、综合的国际间合作,涉及的范围广泛,风险管理难度巨大,受到工程所在国家政治,经济,社会等多方面的影响,具有明显的国际性。做好风险管理工作,可以减少企业在风险发生时的经济损失,在广泛的国际合作中树立可靠,可信的形象,为开拓更加广泛的项目打下坚定的基础,增强企业在国际竞争中的能力和自信。本文针对传统的模糊数学风险评价方法,其评价的结果比较粗糙这一缺点,采用模糊层次分析方法,基于模糊集重心的广义模糊运算下的多层评判模型,改进算法,把((?))算法改为((?))算法,考虑因素的整体性,对于与最大值相差不大的风险因素的值能够体现出来,对评价的结果能做出恰当的定量的分析,最终结果的判断也更加准确。传统的监控方法,例如审核检查法,横道图,S曲线法,挣值分析法等,针对于项目经济效益分析的监控,或者针对于各个风险事件的追踪,对于风险事件之间的影响关系分析程度不够,对项目风险监控的侧重点研究不足。所以本文针对这一不足采用通径分析的方法应用于国际工程项目风险监控中,研究各种风险因素之间的作用大小,对结果的直接和间接的影响,为风险监控的决策提供具体的定量依据,从而对提高风险监控的效率有不小的帮助。通过中国铁建的沙特麦加轻轨铁路案例分析,详细分析了中国企业在中东这一陌生的市场环境中可能遇见的风险因素。研究了导致项目失败的主要原因,并为中国企业在中东市场承包工程项目提出了具体有效的建议,使企业不在相同的问题上出现同样的错误,对于企业避免遭受巨大的经济损失,在激烈的国际竞争中保障自身企业的利益具有重要的指导参考意义。风险管理仅仅是工程管理的一个方面,对于工程管理的其他方面,例如项目投资风险分析,投标策略等方面有待需要进一步的研究与发展。这些问题对于工程项目的成功与否也同样重要。更多还原

【Abstract】 With China’s accession to WTO, more and more Chinese enterprises join the international project contracting in the big wave, facing of an unfamiliar environment, many companies because of ill-prepared the risk, suffered no small loss, but also for the future of the project contract has accumulated rich experience. Under the background of the "going out", the Chinese enterprises enhance their capabilities to protect its own business interests, proper risk management is particularly critical in the fierce international competition. Moreover, the traditional way of contracting international engineering projects is to " Design-Procurement-Construction " pattern, this contract model also gives the contractor an enormous risk. International construction projects is a complex, comprehensive international cooperation, involving a wide range of great difficulty of risk management by the project where the country’s political, economic, social and other aspects of the impact of a significant international. Proper risk management, companies can reduce the risk occurs, the economic losses in a wide range of international cooperation and establish a reliable and credible image for the development of a broader project to lay a firm foundation, and enhance their ability in international competition and self-confidence.Using the traditional fuzzy approach to risk assessment process, which lead to a rough evaluation of the results. In response to this shortcoming, in this paper.using fuzzy-AHP method, based the center of gravity of fuzzy set operations under the multi-generalized fuzzy evaluation improved algorithm.changing.Considerations of integrity, for with little difference between the maximum value of the risk factors can be reflected on the results of the evaluation can make the appropriate quantitative analysis to judge the final results more accurate. Traditional monitoring methods, such as audit inspection method, bar chart, S curve, such as earned value analysis, economic analysis for the monitoring of the project, or for tracking events in each risk, the risk of events for the analysis of the relationship between the impact not enough, the focus of the research project risk monitoring deficiencies. So this lack of use for this method of path analysis used in international project risk monitoring, research the role of various risk factors between the size, the results of direct and indirect implications for the risk control decision-making to provide specific quantitative basis, thereby improving the efficiency of risk control have much help,through studying the China Railway Construction’s light rail in Mecca, Saudi Arabia case, analysis the Chinese enterprises in the Middle East in this new market environment, risk factors may be met. Research leading to the main reason for project failure,And the market for Chinese enterprises to contract projects in the Middle East put forward concrete and effective proposals, so that business is not the same on same error, for businesses to avoid suffering huge economic losses in the fierce international competition to protect their business interests with important guiding reference value.Risk management is just one aspect of project management, project management for other aspects such as investment risk analysis, bidding strategies, etc. need to be further research and development. These issues are the project’s success is equally important.更多还原