【作者】 陈敏；

【导师】 刘胜；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 工业工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，随着科学发展观、绿色经济和新能源战略等观念不断深化发展，我国政府加大了对节能、环保和新能源行业的扶持力度，作为清洁能源行业中的一员，国有水电企业迎来了巨大的发展机遇，但同时国家对电力行业结构和行业政策的调整，也给国有水电企业的发展带了很大的挑战。如何规避战略风险、把握战略契机、实现企业的长远发展，是我国国有水电企业面临的一道现实难题。本文针对战略风险评价中存在的问题，以某国有水电企业为为研究对象，结合企业的实际情况，设计企业的战略风险评价指标体系、构建评价模型，并付之于实践应用。本文的主要研究内容如下：首先，对国内外战略风险管理和评价相关理论进行研究，总结目前研究中存在的问题与不足，在此基础上确定本文的研究内容、思路和方法。其次，对某国有水电企业及其战略风险的特点进行深入分析，确定评价指标体系的设计原则并构建企业战略风险评价的指标体系。第三，将三角模糊指数理论和网络分析法相结合，构建模糊网络评价模型，并确定其解决国有水电企业战略风险评价的过程和步骤。最后，将上述构建的模糊网络评价模型应用于某水电企业战略风险评价之中，验证论文构建的企业战略风险评价指标体系和评价模型的有效性和可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the deepening development of the scientific developmentview, the green economy and new energy strategy, our government has increased thesupport for new energy industry and environmental protection industry. As a memberof the new energy industry, the hydropower industry has ushered in the tremendousopportunities for development, however, the adjustment of industry structure andindustry policy also brought great challenges to the enterprises. How to avoid thestrategic risk and seize the strategic opportunity has become a practical problem of thestate-owned hydropower enterprise. Therefore, under the guidance of the strategic risktheory and evaluation methods, this paper has conducted an in-depth study of thestrategic risks of the state-owned hydropower enterprise. The main contents of thisresearch are as follows:Firstly, after researching the correlative theories of strategic risk managementboth at home and abroad, the paper analyzes the problems and insufficiency in presentresearch and determines the research content、ideas and methods of this paper.Secondly, the paper analyses the characteristics of state-owned hydropowerbusiness and its strategic risk in detail, and establishes the design principles andevaluation index system of the state-owned hydropower enterprises.Thirdly, the Triangular fuzzy number and Analytic network process arecombined to establish the fuzzy network evaluation model that used in the evaluationof strategic risk of the state-owned hydropower enterprises, besides, the paper alsoillustrates the process and procedures of the strategic risk evaluation of thestate-owned hydropower enterprises.Finally, the fuzzy network evaluation model is applied to the assessment of thestrategic risk of M state-owned hydropower company, that to verify the effectivenessand feasibility of the strategic risk evaluation index system and evaluation model.更多还原