【作者】 陈刚；

【导师】 刘玉峰；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 我国自1999年进入老龄化社会，老年化程度日益严重，老年人口的快速增加，使养老成为政府、社会、建设经营者以及老人及其子女需要共同面对的严峻问题。老年公寓作为一种新型老年住宅，不仅拥有分散的居家养老所没有的各类保障服务设施，让老人既住得安心、舒心，又拥有一般养老机构所没有的家庭氛围，是一种居家养老与社区服务相结合的新型养老住宅。但是，由于老年公寓在我国起步晚，其发展存在不少问题。作为一种特殊的房地产项目，老年公寓是高投入、慢回收、高风险的项目开发，在开发过程中，受到政策、经济、技术等因素的影响较大，面临较多的不确定性，盲目投资可能给开发者带来巨大的风险损失。在此情形下，本文针对老年公寓项目开发过程中的风险问题进行分析，通过风险的综合评价，得到项目开发风险大小的结论，从而为决策提供支持。本文以老人及养老为切入点，简要介绍了老年公寓风险基本概念，对老年公寓发展现状、问题进行了概述，分析了老年公寓项目特异性对项目开发风险的影响，并根据这些影响，通过指标筛选，最终构建了老年公寓项目开发风险评价指标体系。指标体系建立后，结合老年公寓项目开发风险层次性和模糊性特征，建立了风险评价模糊层次分析模型，对模型的具体操作过程进行了阐述，并运用模型对具体老年公寓项目开发风险进行了实例分析。最后，文章从投资经营者的角度出发，给出了一些风险应对的建议，以降低项目开发风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since1999, China became an aging society. The degree of aging increasesseriously. It makes the support for the elderly become the government, society,constructors, operators, the elderly and their children’s common severe problems withthe rapid growth of elderly population. As a new kind of old house, apartment for theaged not only have all kinds of security service facilities that the dispersed family oldersupport don’t have which make the elderly live at ease and comfortable, but also havefamily atmosphere that general endowment institutions don’t have. Apartment for theaged is a new house for aged about combination of family support and communityservice. But，because of starting late in our country, apartment for aged has manyproblems. As a special kind of real estate project, apartment for the aged is highinvestment, slow recovery and high risk project development. In the developmentprocess, it is influenced by policy, economic, technology, etc, facing more uncertainty.The blind investment boom may bring great risk loss for developers. In this case, thispaper will analyze the risk in the process of apartment for the aged project. Through thecomprehensive evaluation of risk, it can get the size of the project risk and providesupport for decision making,This paper takes the old and elderly support as a starting point, introduces the basicconcept of apartment for aged and risk briefly. Through the overview about presentsituation, problems, this paper analyzes the effect of risks about specificity of apartmentfor aged, chooses the index and constructs the risk evaluation index system. As theindex system’s built and combined with level and fuzzy character, based on AHP andfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper constructs risk evaluation’s fuzzyhierarchical analysis model. It expounds the operation process of model and analyzes anactual project by using the model. At last, from the investors and operators’ point ofview, this paper gives some suggestions about doing good work and taking action inproject of apartment for the aged, to reduce the risk.更多还原