【作者】 张敏；

【导师】 马恒运；

【作者基本信息】 河南农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 新世纪以来,世界生物能源的迅速发展引来关于其功能和影响的热烈争议。特别是近年来全球粮食价格的居高不下导致“粮食危机”的发生,使得以粮食为原料的生物能源发展备受指责。我国生物能源发展政策也因此发生了变化,从2007年初开始国家禁止以粮食为原料的生物能源生产扩张。同时,政府又规划到2020年我国燃料乙醇和生物柴油生产分别达到1000万吨和200万吨,并且明确指出将通过开发边际土地和种植非粮能源作物来实现。由于生物能源发展与农业、农村关系密切,我国发展生物能源尤其应当慎重考虑其对粮食安全的负面效应和对农村发展的积极效应。这也是本文的研究内容所在,具体包括国内外生物能源的发展及未来趋势、近期粮食价格上涨的原因、我国生物能源发展对未来粮食价格和粮食生产以及农村收入的影响等。文章采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方式对相关问题进行了细致分析,得出的基本结论是:世界生物能源发展在化石能源减少和生态环境恶化的压力下呈现出全球性扩张的趋势,这意味着中国寻找化石替代能源的责任不容懈怠,探索生物能源的进一步发展不是简单的“跟风”发达国家;近年来粮食价格高涨的部分原因可由世界生物能源发展来解释,但国内粮食价格上涨主要是由国际市场传入的,我国生物能源生产使用的陈化粮对国内粮价的影响微不足道,所以应理性看待我国生物能源的发展;当然,我国自然资源相对于人口数量非常匮乏,生物能源发展必然挤占农业资源,定量分析也表明短期生物能源发展会减少粮食产量使粮食价格上升,这给我国粮食安全和农业生产带来巨大的挑战;但是,在考虑技术进步的情况下负面影响较小,并且粮价上涨会增加农民收入,刺激农民致力于农业生产,未来存在抵消的可能;生物能源产业发展还将为农村提供新的就业岗位,大量吸收农村剩余劳动力,从而弥补城市化的不足,促进农村地区发展。所以,本文的政策启示是:在生物能源探索发展阶段,中国应当充分利用生物能源短期发展给农村发展带来的机遇,并将此作为生物能源发展的优先目标;同时,应加强科研开发,研究新的生物能源技术(特别是第二代生物能源技术),提高农业生产效率,这是决定生物能源未来前途的重要因素;另外,充分估计生物能源发展过程中可能的负面效应,慎重对待边际土地开发包括要准确测定生态质量、合理选择能源物种、有效评估人力物力,完善社会保障体系确保粮价上涨引起的贫困人口食物安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the new millennium, world biofuel emergency has raised furious debates on its function and impacts. Particularly, food crop based biofuel development has suffered much due to the recent food crisis generated by worldwide food price hikes. China thus changed its biofuel development policies, and banned grain based biofuel expansion from 2007. Meanwhile, the government planned bioethanol and biodiesel production of 10 and 2 million tonnes by 2020 respectively, pointed out explicitly that the goal would be achieved through exploring marginal land and cultivating non-grain crops.Because of the intimate relationships between biofuel, agriculture and rural development, biofuel development in China should consider carefully about its negative effects on food security and positive effects on rural development. That is also the content of the paper which consists of the state and trends of foreign and domestic biofuel development, causes of recent higher food prices, and impacts of China’s future development on food price, production and rural income.In this paper, both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed to analyze related issues in detail, and the basic conclusions obtained are: World biofuel development tend to expand more globally under the pressures of fossil energy depletion and eco-environment degradation, which means that searching for alternative energy sources and exploring further biofuel development are not“just following”developed countries but China’s responsibility that can not be shirked. Recent upsurge of food prices can be explained partially by global biofuel development, but domestic prices rise are mainly impacted by international market because biofuel production use only rotten grains which is insignificant, therefore biofuel development in China should be regarded with more rationality. Biofuel development will consequentially occupy agricultural resources due to China’s scarcity in natural resources relative to its large population, quantitative analysis also indicate that biofuel development in the short run would reduce food production and raise food price, which brings great challenges to national food security and agricultural production. However, those negative effects would be less and even offset in the future if considering technology progress, in addition with higher food price induced farmers’income growth which would increase their incentives to agricultural production. Besides, the development of biofuel industry would offer new employment opportunities for the large rural surplus laborers, thereby make up the deficiency of urbanization and promote rural development. Hence, policy impactions of this paper are: In the exploration stage,it is better for China to take full advantage of the opportunities brought by short run biofuel development for rural development, and make this as a priority target. At the same time, it is important to strengthen scientific research and development work exploring new biofuel technologies and increasing agricultural production efficiency, as this is the key factor that determines the future of biofuel. Besides, it is necessary to anticipate fully the possible negative effects in the process of biofuel development treating seriously the exploration of marginal land, which includes measuring ecological quality accurately, selecting energy crops reasonably and assessing human and material resources effectively, and to perfect social security system to insure for the poor food security which may affected by food price rise.更多还原