中国煤产业链经济波动研究

【作者】 李艳；

【导师】 周阳敏；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 国民经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是世界上少数几个以煤为主的国家之一,煤炭在经济社会发展中占有重要地位,并且近几年又出现了转折性的变化。随着我国煤炭市场需求的旺盛,以及市场化改革的加速和政府各项政策的支持,煤炭产业出现良好的经济势头。而对我国煤炭经济影响的不仅包括国内各项政策的出台,同时还受国外贸易政策等影响,使我国煤炭产业发展既有机遇又有困境。于是,国家出台各种政策来缓解资源短缺困境。2006年我国煤炭行业众多政策集中出台,其中,煤炭资源有偿使用、煤炭工业可持续发展试点、电煤价格完全市场化、煤炭资源整合、煤炭生产区域规划布局、煤炭安全生产等政策的出台,将对今后煤炭行业的健康发展产生深远影响。煤炭在我国能源生产和消费结构中比重很高,在新时期,要拓宽煤炭深加工产业链,发展洁净煤技术,实现煤炭资源的可持续利用,这就鼓励了非煤产业的大力发展。煤炭产业和其他产业一样都有经济周期,所以,为了避免煤炭产业走入低谷、或者延长煤炭产业经济波动的周期,就可以拓展煤炭产业链,在煤炭产业发展的不同时期可以相应的发展不同的非煤产品,实现产品替代。同时,由于非煤产业价值比煤炭直接销售的价值大,所以现在许多企业都开始大力发展非煤产业;并通过企业组织结构的改制、产品结构的定位、专业技术人才的培养等方式来促进非煤企业的飞快发展。为此,在本文中,笔者结合煤炭的产业周期理论,试图探寻出煤与非煤产业之间的定性、定量关系。这是因为,目前煤炭产业面临新的发展机遇,而其相关产业链的拓展对煤炭产业周期的波动也产生着不同程度的影响。本文基于XX集团煤与非煤产业的发展现状,以及相关产业分析,探询出煤与非煤产业发展过程中的存在的相关性、煤与非煤产业链经济波动趋势的相似性、以及经济波动过程中相互间周期的滞后性等等,并以此对煤炭行业以及非煤产业的今后发展提出一些建设性的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the countries which are relying on coal industry in the world. The coal industry plays very important role in their national economy, and now there are some turning changes. With the development of our coal market and the supporting of our government, the coal industry is facing a good development. But there are also some reasons which affecting the coal industry besides our country’s policies, for example, the foreign trade policies which make a challenge and difficult position. So our government public different policies to dissolve the capital, such as payable use the coal, the recycling industry of experimental unit, the whole market of electricity, the merging of industry and so on in 2006. At the new age, we should extend the chain of coal, develop the clean technical of coal, and realize the long use at the end. So this is a chance for the development of coal industry. The same as the other industry, the coal industry has its own cycle, and we should develop different coal industry and non-industry at different stage. Now the value of non-coal industry is more than that of coal industry, so many enterprises began to develop non-coal industry quickly, through changing their construction of organization, the fixation of products, the way of developing specialized talent and so on.In this text, through combining with Cycle Theory, I want to find the nature and math relation between coal industry and non-coal industry. That’s because at the moment, the coal industry is facing a favorable circumstance and the relevant chain of coal industry also influence the economic fluctuation of the coal industry’s period. This text is based on the development of XX group-company’s coal industry and non-coal industry, and also based on the analysis of relevant coal industry, in order to find the relevance, similarity and lag of coal and non-coal industry. In the end, I will give some constructive suggestion for the future development.更多还原