【作者】 黄猛；

【导师】 甘嵘静；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国国民经济持续快速健康发展,产业结构升级换代加快,第三产业的比重逐步加大,房地产业作为国民经济基础性、支柱性、先导性产业的地位日益显著。2006年国内GDP为26971.64亿元,人均GDP为2039美元,经济的高速发展为房地产行业发展打下了坚实基础,根据国际发展经验,人均GDP在1000美元左右时,是一国房地产行业迅猛发展的黄金阶段。此外,国家已经确立全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标和城乡一体化发展战略,为房地产行业发提供了较好的发展契机。房地产成为当今主要的投资热点,投资额逐年增大,从整体看来房地产行业发展向好。由于房地产投资额大、投资周期长、位置固定及所处的内外环境时刻变化等不利条件,致使房地产投资蕴含着极大的风险。房地产投资比任何其他投资行为都要更多地受到政府的规范和干预,近两年来我国商品房价格上涨过快也产生了一定的负面影响,政府为调控房地产市场出台了很多政策,如土地供给政策、金融政策等,各项政策对房地产行业将会产生一定影响。目前房地产行业正处于整体发展向好,短期投资风险正在突显的阶段。投资者往往忽视了房地产投资项目的可行性评估,缺乏合理的投资价值评估方法,对在房地产开发过程中存在的各类风险因素认识不足、估计不够。本文从房地产开发商的角度出发,结合我国房地产开发投资活动的实践,对房地产投资项目建立评价指标体系,为房地产投资决策以及政策制定提供参考依据,以期具有理论价值并具有一定实践指导意义。1、本文重要内容第一章是本文的绪论部分,介绍了本文的选题依据和研究意义,国内外的研究现状,在充分了解国内外房地产投资分析理论与实践的基础上,确定本文的基本思路,写作框架,使用的理论工具及研究方法。第二章是房地产投资简介部分。介绍了房地产概念,系统分析了我国房地产业特点、房地产投资项目开发流程及决策特点。房地产投资项目投资额巨大,收益较高,但容易受经济、政策影响,不确定因素较多,因此,投资项目价值评估和风险评估是项目评估的关键。第三章为房地产投资项目价值评估研究,本章节是本文的核心之一。开发商获得土地的使用权就拥有了对项目开发的未来选择权,具有较强的实物期权特征,使用净现值法可能会造成投资价值低估,在保留其合理内容的基础上将实物期权引入房地产投资评估。详述实物期权的定义、房地产实物期权与金融期权相关因素比较。在介绍实物期权方法一般分析框架的基础上,根据房地产项目阶段性开发特点构造房地产开发项目实物期权定价模型,针对相关参数的确定问题进行了深入研究,重点讨论标的资产价值、执行价格、波动率、期权时间等问题。第四章为风险评估体系部分,风险评估也是房地产投资项目评估的关键。本章节对风险的影响因素进行分析探讨,根据当前经济形势、宏观政策及行业实际情况,建立了由经济风险、政策风险、房地产企业风险、项目风险4大类的评估指标,在此基础上建立起了二级评价指标体系,并利用层次分析法确定各级指标权重;最后,建立了模糊综合评判模型,对房地产项目投资风险进行定量评价。第五章为案例部分,本章节注重理论与实际相结合。利用成都某房地产开发项目对该模型进行验证,指出该项目的实物期权特征,根据实际搜集的数据资料,通过实物期权模型对项目价值进行评估;并分析了可能出现的风险因素,利用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评判模型对项目投资风险进行评价,根据投资价值和风险级别给出投资可行性建议。通过实例说明本文指标体系的可操作性和科学性。第六章对本文研究内容进行了总结,并为以后研究方向提出展望。2、本文观点房地产投资项目具有投资大、收益高、风险影响因素较多等特点;开发过程包括投资机会寻找、项目可行性研究、取得土地使用权、项目规划与合同谈判、项目建设、房地产租售六个阶段;决策具有风险性、时机性、阶段性、收益具有不确定性等特点。此外,我国房地产行业正处于总体形势向好,短期投资风险不断增大的关键阶段,以上原因决定了投资项目价值评估和风险评估是房地产投资项目评估的核心。房地产开发项目具有很强的实物期权特征,实物期权模型能尽可能对投资价值进行准确评估,并可以为投资者提供了较好的决策思维。风险评估模型可以对风险进行定性度量,为投资决策提供参考,并可以为项目实施中的风险因素进行有效预测,实行积极有效项目的项目管理,促进投资价值的实现。3、本文创新本文的创新主要在于以下三个方面:第一、把实物期权模型引入房地产投资项目评估之中,针对发开过程构造实物期权模型,并给出了各参数的选取方法。第二、价值波动率是该模型关键变量,众多学者对此进行了研究,以往的研究成果以蒙特卡罗模拟法或类似项目的价值波动率作为投资项目价值的波动率。为了最大限度接近真实,本文把商品房销售价格景气指数变动标准差作为项目价值波动率,认为波动率在一定时间内是个常数,历史的波动率将是未来波动率的近似估计值,商品房销售价格景气指数变动标准差是房地产投资价值波动率较为准确的近似估计值。第三、根据当前行业发展现状、经济政策环境,对前人的风险评价指标进行了改进,建立起了新的风险评价指标体系。4、本文的不足:本文的不足主要在以下两方面:第一在实物期权定价模型中,各参数的确定要结合具体开发项目特点进行具体分析和论证,本文对参数确定进行了简化处理,与实际会有一定偏差。第二,由于房地产项目差异巨大,本文应用个案进行分析,只能说明该评估体系的可操作性,未必对所有的项目都有效,在说服力上仍有欠缺。本文期望能对房地产投资项目进行全面评价,以尽量减少、规避风险损失,促进房地产投资的健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with sustained, rapid and healthy development of China’s economy, speed up the upgrading of the industrial structure, as the one the foundations in the national economy, the real estate industry is becoming increasingly significant. In 2006 domestic GDP was 2.697164 trillion Yuan, the per capita GDP was 2,039 US dollars, rapid economic development of the real estate industry has laid a solid foundation for development, in accordance with international development experience, the per capita GDP in 1000 US dollars around, and the real estate industry was in gold stage.As for real estate investment cycle length, the location of fixed and the internal and external environment changes unfavorable, this contains great risks. In recent years, China’s commercial housing prices rose too fast also produced a certain negative impact, the government use many policies to control the real estate market, such as land supply policy, financial policy, the policy will have an impact on the real estate industry.Investors often overlook the real estate investment project feasibility assessment, absence of a reasonable value and risk assessment method. From the perspective of real estate developers, in light of China’s investment in real estate development activities of the practice, the paper establish the real estate investment projects evaluation system for decision-making and policy formulation, with a view to a theoretical value and have some practice guiding significance.1、Important ContentChapter 1 introduced the significance of research, in the full understanding of domestic and foreign real estate investment analysis theory and practice. This paper identified the basic ideas, Writing framework, the theoretical tools and research methods.Chapter II is part of the real estate investment profiles. The paper introduced the concept of real estate investment, the characteristics of China’s real estate industry, decision-making and process.Chapter III is the value assessment studies of real estate investment projects. The paper studied the definition of real options, Comparison of real estate and financial options. Under the phased development of real estate projects, we improved real option pricing model and researched determination of the relevant parameters in-depth.Chapter IV is the system for risk assessment; risk assessment is critical for the real estate investment projects. The chapter analyzed the risk factors, according to the current economic situation, macro-policy and industry realities, established the evaluation index system. Finally, the paper established a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate risk.Chapter V is the case about real estate investment projects, the chapter focus on the integration of theory and practice. Through examples, we certificated the operational and scientific of index system.Chapter VI of this paper is a summary of the contents and direction for future research prospects.2、The opinionsThe assessment of investment projects and risk is the core of the real estate investment projects. Real options model can accurately assess the value, and may provide investors with a better decision-making mentality. Risk assessment model can be a good measure to make decisions, use positive and effective project management and promote the realization of investment value.3、InnovationIn this paper, the main innovation lies in the following three aspects: First, introduced real option model into the real estate investment projects, improved the real options model, and gave each parameter selection methods. Second, the volatility of value is the key variables of the model, In order to maximize real close, the paper used the housing boom index changes as the volatility of project value. Third, under the current development of the industry, the economic policy environment, improved indicators and established a new risk evaluation index system.4、The shortage of paperIn this paper, the shortage mainly in the following two aspects: first, in option pricing model, this paper simplified parameters, and there will be some actual bias. Secondly, because of huge differences in real estate projects, I used the case to certify the assessment system operational, but may not effective in all cases.This paper looks forward to the real estate investment projects to be undertaken a comprehensive evaluation, to minimize and avoid risks loss, and promote the development of real estate investment healthy.更多还原