重庆农村居民消费对经济增长的促进作用研究

【作者】 魏昭钢；

【导师】 王钊；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 区域经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 改革二十多年来，买方市场形成后，市场有效消费需求不足对经济增长的制约作用日趋明显，启动消费问题已成为全国经济研究领域中最重要的方面，重庆也不例外。本文在调查收集重庆农村居民1986—2005年消费情况数据资料的基础上，围绕重庆农村居民消费问题，对农村居民消费差异、存在问题及建议策略等进行了详细论述。本文运用消费经济理论，主要涉及绝对收入理论、相对收入理论、生命周期理论、持久收入理论等消费函数理论，将理论与实践相结合，采用定量实证分析方法，对重庆农村居民消费变动的特征与规律性进行了比较全面地分析与探讨，以期获得有益的研究成果，为启动农村消费市场提供理论与政策依据。随着重庆市农村居民收入的不断增长，农村居民购买力的提高，广大农村居民的生活消费水平显著提高，表现在其物质和精神文化生活得到全面改善和提高，以追求便利、质量等为主要目的的较高层次消费阶段已悄然拉开帷幕。当前重庆农村居民消费水平主要呈现以下特征：饮食状况和住房条件改善、居民耐用消费品数量增多、居民精神生活日益丰富，劳务消费比重上升等。本文通过比较分析，指出了重庆农村居民的消费水平是在波动中提高的，农村居民消费生活水平比过去虽然得到提高，但是城乡之间、区域之间存在显著的差异。这种差异会直接影响重庆经济增长的提高和阻碍全市的共同富裕，我们应当采取措施克服城乡之间的消费断层和区域之间的消费不均衡。在对重庆农村居民消费结构的历史演变分析基础上，根据恩格尔系数的国际标准判断出农村居民的消费结构所处的不同阶段，目前农村居民消费水平正处于温饱向小康水平过渡阶段。农民消费具有总量上升，结构演进的特征，如农村居民的消费结构升级、货币化消费比例上升、消费质量提高、消费观念进步等。与此同时也应当看到目前重庆农村居民消费结构中存在的问题，例如：食品消费比重偏高，恩格尔系数偏高、高级家庭耐用消费品很难进入农村家庭、区域之间的居民消费结构差异大。为了进一步对消费结构进行分析，利用了2005年重庆农村居民消费的截面数据，采用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES)分析得出农村居民消费的基本需求、自价格弹性、互价格弹性和收入弹性。结合重庆农村市场的实际情况，选取和利用消费函数理论中的生命周期假设模型和持久收入假设模型对重庆农民消费行为进行拟合分析，结果说明了收入是影响农村居民消费的最主要的因素。本文阐述了消费与经济增长之间的密切关系，经济增长与消费增长应该是相辅相成的关系。加快经济发展，提高居民收入水平，能带动消费的增长；当然消费额的增长反过来刺激经济增长，消费需求是经济增长的助推器，对经济增长有着极为重要的反作用。由此可见研究居民消费对国民经济增长具有十分重要的现实意义。然后搜集计算全市消费、投资、净出口等指标对GDP的贡献率数据，以数据资料为实证依据，就农村居民消费对促进经济增长的作用进行了深入的探讨。从分析结果看到，重庆农民消费增长波动与GDP增长呈现非线性关系，农民消费增长对经济增长所作的贡献呈现下降的趋势，值得重视。农村需求潜力巨大，农村消费增长对经济增长具有强大的拉动作用，农民消费水平和结构的变化对经济结构的调整具有导向作用。本文还分析了影响重庆农村居民消费的制约因素，如收入是制约农村消费的关键因素、不完善的消费环境、严重的产品结构性供需矛盾现象、不健全的社会保障制度体系、落后的消费观念等因素。正是因为这些方面的欠缺，导致农村居民消费的增长对GDP增长的促进作用发挥失常。毫无疑问，启动农村消费市场具有十分重要的经济意义，文章最后就如何启动重庆农村消费市场提出一些建设性的措施对策，主要包括：提高农村居民收入、加强农村商品流通体系建设、改善农村消费环境、提高服务质量、加快城镇化进程等方面。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the reformation twenty years, under buyer’s market, the insufficiency of the avoid demand is prevent the development of economy, to start consumption problem has been the most important in economic studying field. Chongqing is not of exception. The paper is based on investigating and collecting the consumption data of rural resident of Chongqing from 1986 to 2005. Around the rural resident’s consumption question of Chongqing, to analyze the difference of rural resident’s consumption、problems and the suggestions.This paper, recalled some of the western consumption theories such as the hypothesis of absolute income, the hypothesis of the relative income, the hypothesis of the sustained consumption and so on. Combine the theory and practice, use positive studying method, to analyze the regularity and feature of the rural resident’s consumption. We hope to get great studying results, and to supply theoretic basis for starting the rural consumption market.By the income growth of rural residents of chongqing, their consumption level has increased. They start to pursue higher quality and more convenient life. At present, the rural resident’s consumption of Chongqing has some features, such as the condition of eating and living is better; rural resident’s spiritual life is more sufficient; the service consumption has increased. This paper, shows that the consumption level of peasants in Chongqing is higher than that of the past, but there are remarkable differences between urban and region. These remarkable differences will prevent the economic growth of chongqing. So we should try measures to modify this condition.On analysis the historic variation of the peasant consumption composition in Chongqing, the consumption level and composition of rural households in Chongqing is changing from the stage of dressing warmly and eating their fill to comfortably well-off. There are many problems in the peasant consumption composition in Chongqing, such as the consumption of food is too high; there are remarkable differences in the peasant consumption composition. The author uses 2005 year cross-section data on income and expenditures of rural household of Chongqing for further analysis, and obtains price and income elasticity of consumption and consumptive trend in future by extended linear expenditure system(ELES). Concerning the true condition of chongqing, this paper draws that income is the most primary factor to consumption by the models of consumption function (Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis and Modigliani’s life cycle hypothesis).This paper deeply and systematically studies the history process and laws of rural residents’ consumption and analyzes the relations between above factors and the national economy fluctuation. Collect the data of consumption、investment、export and import, and compute their proportion of GDP. Then research the function of rural residents’ consumption to economic growth. Discussing the relationship between consumption and economic growth, the result is the variation of consumptive level and composition has a guiding rule to adjust economy structure.This paper proposes the reasons of being short of demand in rural region. Such as: income is the key factor of preventing economic growth; the condition of consumption is imperfect; the contradiction of demand and supply of goods is serious; the social ensure system is not whole; the conception of consumption is backward and so on. There is no doubt that starting the rural residents’ consumption market has very important action. Finally, brings foreword corresponding measures for perfecting the rural residents’ consumption policy and market. Such as: increase the income of rural residents; strength the system of rural goods circulation; perfect the environment of rural residents’ consumption; improve the quality of service and so on.更多还原